Cold war April 22 2014 Is war really obsolete Proponents argue that ww2 changed belief about war But ww1 was contrary to everyone s expectations Fact that ww2 occurred seems to discount the theory Key flaw is that it assumes conventional war is war of attrition conventional war can be won cheaply nuclear war cannot be this war isn t obsolete If so proliferation might be the ultimate inducement to peace like Mearsheimer argues What about economic interdependence Another soft theory of peace argues for economic interdependence Optimism for post cold war stability flows from open and integrated European economy Theories of economic liberalism Assumes states primary motivation is not security but rather economic prosperity Leader s place material welfare above security Stability therefore from creation of liberal economic order requires significant political cooperation more prosperity increases incentive for further cooperation Threat of future punishment enough to incentivize cooperation Further extended cooperating increases may increase interdependence where states are mutually vulnerable to economic disruptions What is interdependence Generically mutual dependence on some goods In trade if two countries trade a lot we might say they are interdependent But if near substitutes exist high trade volume will not indicate interdependence just convenience All else equal a world in which most states are open to trade is one in which it will generally be easier to find substitutes for any given trade relationship This implies that an entire region embraces trade liberalization it might in fact increase the risk of war since the value of any given bilateral trade relationship will decrease Martin Meyer and Thoenig 2008 make trade not war Hypothesis 1 bilateral trade reduces the probability of MID Hypothesis 2 multilateral trade increases the probability of MID Analyze all dyads from 1950 2000 Dependent variable whether or not conflict occurs within a dyad in any given year Primary independent variable Graph shows that liberalization of trade has increased conflict in the international system The problem with interdependence We do see a correlation between interdependence and stability But that doesn t mean the former caused the latter More likely soviet threat cause cooperation among western democracies Without soviet threat relative gains in trade may cause economic cooperation Forced states to focus on absolute rather than relative gains Peace loving democracies A third optimistic scenario argues peace will prevail because of the increase number of democracies in the international system in the post cold war world One of the most cited findings in political science At minimum democracy ensures war free eastern Europe Maximum democracy spreads east bolstering the peaceful aspects for the future Why don t democracies fight Normative explanation democracies externalize the norms of non violent conflict resolution and self determination in their foreign relations they broke that multiple times during cold war Institutional explanation democratic political institutions force purely self interested leaders to avoid unnessicary wars evidence says autocratic leaders receive more punishment then elected Intuitive explanations but serious limitations in supporting evidence Missing the cold war Some scholars argue that the end of the cold war is dangerous If the soviets crumble multipolarity is likely to cause tensions If so a resurgent Germany may exacerbate problems mulshiemr argues for carefully managed selective proliferation of nuclear weopons