o Every item or person has equal chance of being selected o Are volunteers picking every nth person picking names from hat random o Academia comes closes to getting near random samples GVPT 170 FINAL Public Opinion Measuring Public Opinion CRITICAL factors for successful polling o Random sample o Decent sample size o Question wording o Measurement of Intensity Random Sample Shaping Public Opinion Factors almost always have an affect o Race gender class o Context of the matter o Economic conditions o Religion o Party ID Party ID o Strong determinant of opinion o People stick w their party USUALLY o Attachment Psychological attachment to a group being able to relate to group members and attach yourself to an identity Tides of Consent Ch 1 How Public Opinion Maters MICRO public opinion opinion of individuals separately o Few have consistent opinions o Few have substantial knowledge o Few care MACRO of the public as a whole o Behaves reasonably o Follows opinion leaders The informed minority of public is outspoken and involved and therefore informs and involves in uninformed majority of the public Does an uninformed public matter Politicians compete to earn votes from uninformed Uninformed can still make reasonable choices Gvt can narrow its focus and responses to concerns Ideology Consistent patterns of attitudes stemming from core beliefs Liberal vs conservative o How strong gvt role should be in economy and welfare o Liberal more involvement Racial issues Cultural issues o Opinion of government intervention moved in typical direction o Opinion of government intervention moved in opposite direction than usual cons wanted more government intervention Tides of Consent Ch 3 Issue Evolution Symbolic conservatism o How issues are structured how party associates itself with certain issues o Goldwater race in 60s o What you actually call yourself o Most of public identifies as conservative because liberal can have negative connotation associated with waste laziness Operational liberalism o Your actions and beliefs o Most of public is actually liberal in their actions Tides of Consent Ch 4 Open Seats no incumbent challenger No Obama 2012 Most important factors Press o Daily observation of news is most important Advertising Strategists o Image is most important built up through advertisements in order to project what is important to a candidate and create a positive image a lot of money is used for this Political Science o State of the country and economy matter the most indicators of overall health of country affect election result Tides of Consent Ch 5 Equilibration Honeymoon first 6 mo do much yet Crises rally around flag o Approval of president is higher beginning b s has not had opportunity o National crises brings people together war hurricane etc o Temporary spike in approval o As war goes on and lives are lost approval declines Economy Citizen Classifications o Passionate care too much to change o Uninvolved don t know don t care won t care o Scorekeepers rational keep track of elections minds can change Public Opinion Definitions Strawpoll o Tossing straws into the air to see which way the wind is blowing questionnaires polls etc to learn about opinions and trends and only reliable by luck Exclusion measurement problem o Magazine took polls to predict 1932 and 1936 prez elections and used car registrations as population for their sample so it excluded people w o cars o Excluded the lower class severely and made results inaccurate Self selection measurement problem o With straw polls the respondent chooses to be a part of the poll which means they might have a stronger belief system or etc and therefore there is bias and the results are inaccurate o Usually liberal or conservative psychological attachment and group Party identification identity are very important Ideology o Pattern of beliefs stemming from liberal and conservative affiliation o How involved uninvolved the gvt should be in economy welfare o Promotes consistency of political attitudes by connecting them to something greater o Operational ideology vs symbolic ideology Randomness o Every subject has an equal chance of being selected o Academia comes closest to random Micro public opinion o Opinion of individuals o Uninformed and does not care about politics Micro public opinion o Opinion of public as a whole o Reasonable and follows opinion leaders Opinion leaders Public opinion o Informed minority of public that leads the uninformed majority o Opinions held by private people which the government should respond to public opinion is thermostatic Thermostatic opinion o Public opinion is a thermostat too hot too cold o Everyone thing your study is trying to examine Population Sample o Specific subjects of your study that try to encompass characteristics of the entire population Public Opinion Questions How do citizens form political attitudes that represent their ideological beliefs o Element of personality o Rooted in personal experiences and preferences socialization o Attachment to a group identity o Attitudes introduce bias because people pay more attention to sources info that confirm rather than challenge their beliefs How politically informed is the public o The public is typically uninformed micro but small majority is informed opinion leaders and lead the uninformed o Passionates vs scorekeepers vs uninvolved o Many don t care about issues don t care enough to get informed o We like what we like even if we can t recall why aggregation reduces noise o Macro says public as a whole aggregate is rational and reduces noise What are the necessary requirements of a scientific public opinion poll Describe the properties of a good scientific sample o Most accurate sample will be truly random but nearly impossible o Random sample of population of interest o Well designed questions o Well designed surveying method phone calls vs random home visits academic organizations do it best What are the concepts of political ideology and partisan identification What do they represent and how do citizens form their ideological and partisan attachments o Political ideology consistent pattern of political attitudes that stem from a core belief liberal conservative o Party is a default for who to vote for unless compelling reason not to o How much of a role should the government play in economy welfare o In theory ideology is consistent but in reality it is inconsistent and based more on PID than on beliefs liberal and conservative o