HB 311 1st Edition Lecture 7 Current Lecture Common Stock Background Stockholders own the corporation but in many instances the corporation is widely held Stock ownership is spread among a large number of people Most equity investors aren t interested in a role as owners Because of this most stockholders are only interested in how much money they will receive as a stockholder Dividends Capital Gains Return on an Investment in Common Stock The future cash flows associated with stock ownership consists of Dividends The eventual selling price of the shares If you buy a share of stock for price P0 hold it for one year during which time you receive a dividend of D1 then sell it for a price P1 you return k would be These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute The Nature of Cash Flows From Stock Ownership For stockholders Expected dividends and future selling price are not known with any precision When selling investor receives money from another investor For bondholders Interest payments are guaranteed constant Maturity value is fixed At maturity the investor receives face value from the issuing company The Basis of Value The basis for stock value is the present value of expected cash inflows even though dividends and stock prices are difficult to forecast Must make assumptions about what the future dividends and selling price will be Discount these assumptions at an appropriate interest rate The Intrinsic Value and Market Price A stock s intrinsic value is based on assumptions made by a potential investor About future cash flows by analyzing the firm and the industry Known as Fundamental Analysis Analysts who follow particular stocks base recommendations to buy sell hold on this type of analysis Different investors with different cash flow estimates will have different intrinsic values Growth Models of Common Stock Valuation Realistically most people tend to forecast growth rates rather than cash flows Because forecasting exact future prices and dividends is very difficult Growth rates work like interest rates If growth is expected to be 6 next year then 100 experiencing a 6 growth will increase by 6 or 100 x 6 The ending value after 6 growth will be 106 or 100 6 or 100 x 1 06 The constant growth model If dividends are assumed to be growing at a constant rate forever and we know the last dividend paid D0 then the model simplifies to Which represents a series of fractions as follows If k g the fractions get smaller approach zero as the exponents get larger If k g growth is normal If k g growth is supernormal Can occur but lasts for limited time period Constant Normal Growth The Gordon Model The Gordon model is a simple expression for forecasting the price of a stock that s expected to grow at a constant normal rate The Zero Growth Rate Case A Constant Dividend If a stock is expected to pay a constant non growing dividend each dollar dividend is the same Gordon model simplifies to next page A zero growth stock is a perpetuity to the investor The Expected Return Can recast Gordon model to focus on the return k implied by the constant growth assumption The expected return reflects investors knowledge of a company If we know D0 most recent dividend paid and P0 current actual stock price investors expectations are input via the growth rate assumption Two Stage Growth At times a firm s future growth may not be expected to be constant For example a new product may lead to temporary high growth The two stage growth model allows us to value a stock that is expected to grow at an unusual rate for a limited time Use the Gordon model to value the constant portion Find the present value of the non constant growth periods Practical Limitations of Pricing Models Stock valuation models give approximate results because the inputs are approximations of reality Bond valuation is precise because inputs are exact With bonds future cash flows are contractually guaranteed in amount and time Actual growth rate can be VERY different from predicted growth rates Even if growth rates differ only slightly it can make a big difference in our decision So it s best to allow a margin for error in your estimations Stocks That Don t Pay Dividends Some firms don t pay dividends even if they are profitable Many companies claim they never intend to pay dividends These firms can still have a substantial stock price Firms of this type typically are growing and are using their profits to finance their growth However rapid growth won t last forever When growth slows the firm will begin paying dividends It s these distant dividends that impart value