Topic 5: Europe’s 2nd Logistic and The Age of Discovery I. Europe’s Second Logistic (Figure 1-2, page 18)A. Restoration of Growth in Population around 1450.（pic（1. Decline in disease due to increasednatural immunity.--natural selection.2. Rising real wages/better nutrition/increased life expectancy.3. Earlier marriage/higher birth rates. B. Stagnation of population in 1600s1. Wars: The Thirty Years War (1618-1648). Between 1600 and 1650 population in Germany fell by 4 million from 16 to 12 million.2. Epidemics: catastrophic mortality due to disease and food shortages. While people became more resistant to the plague, the germs also mutated and became stronger,as population grew, food eventuallybecame scare, people became more susceptible.3. Fertility declines: changes in nuptiality-- later marriage, attempts to space births, abstinence.C. The Malthusian Model. Reverend Thomas Malthus described this processin Principles of Population (1798). Basically a diminishing returns story; growth is limited by a society’s resources.1. The primary resource is food.2. The law of diminishing returns is inevitable. Cultivation of new land and intensification of labor in response to demographic growth adds progressively smallerincrements to production for each additional unit of land or labor.3. As population grows, it eventually strains on the food supply.4. Eventually food becomes scarce and population growth must be “checked.”（ Positive checks (excess mortality): famines, epidemics, wars（ Preventive checks: population changes behavior to lower fertility—(abstinence, later marriage, birth spacing, infanticide.)5. Production or productivity increases provide only temporary relief. Any grains from invention or innovation are inevitably canceled by demographic growth.D. Agricultural productivity in the Early Modern Era1. Very few agricultural advances in this period, so as Malthus described:a. Prices of food rose; wages fell (just like in Medieval period before plague).b. Famines: shortages of foodc. Epidemics: poor nutrition increases morbidity-- even if the plague didn’t kill you, you were a less productive worker.2. How low were productivity levels?（ seed to yield ratios in wheat: 6 inbest years vs. 30 today in U.S.（ output of milk cows (14th Century England): 500 liters/yr vs. 3000 liters/yr in U.S.（ 5 yr old cattle in Italy 560 lbs. vs. 1,550 lbs II. Early European ExplorationA. The necessary conditions--technological advances in shipbuilding and navigation:1. full-rigged ships--larger could carry more men and cargo for longer voyages, as well as could better capture currents.2. celestial navigation--need to use stars to keep on course, otherwise drift off course during the night.B. Portugal. Portugese exploration centered on navigation around Africaand the Indian Ocean. Portugal established cities and forts on the East African and Indian coasts and took Ceylon in the early 1500s. The controlled the passage to the “spice islands” and therefore broke the Italian cities monopolies of the spice trade. The established trading relationships with Siam and Japan in 1557 colonized Macao. For the most part the Portuguese did not try to capture or colonize the areas they came into contact with. Instead they set up forts and were content to control the sea lanes.1. Efforts of Prince Henry the Navigator from 1418-1460.a. Reached Cape Verdeb. Profitable trade in Ivory, Gold, and slaves.2. Renewed interest under King John II, Voyage of Vasco da Gama (1497-1499)3. Portugal supplants Venetians in long-distance trade across Eurasia.a. In the first decade of 1500s, they swept Arabs off Indian Ocean, established fortified trade posts from Mozambique and Persian Gulf to the Spice Islands. (3“pinch points” at Malaaca, in the straights that connected the Indian and the Pacific Oceans, and Hormuz ar the entrance to the Persian Gulf).b. Eventually established trade withChinese and Japanese.trade relationships estabilished with Siam and Japan in 1557. Colonized Macao.c. Not really colonization in general (Brazil and Macao exceptions) Instead they set up fortified tradeposts and content to control sea lanes. too weak and small a population to do that.d. Left distribution to the Dutch and the Italians4. Meanwhile, from 1500, the Portuguese settled the Brazilian coast. In 1493, Ferdinand and Isabella applied to the Pope for a “Line of Demarcation”-- a linedividing the non-European world between Spain and Portugal. Spain was given the West and Portugal the East. In 1494, the Treaty of Tordesillas moved this line further west, giving Portugal thehump of South America, or modern day Brazil.5. Portugal falls to Spain in 1580. Would be ruled by Spain for the next 60years.C. Spain1. In 1492, Isabella finances the Genoese Columbus’ voyage to a Western route to the Indies.2. Permanent settlement on the West Indies followed.3. Subsequent conquering of wealthy populations in Mexico and northernSouth America.（ 1519-1521--Cortez conquered Aztecs in Mexico（ 1530s—Pizarro conquered Inca Empire in Peru（ By the end of the 16th century, Spain had colonies in Florida and California and the western coast of South of America.4. Plundered these civilizations, then eventually mined them. Spain did not simply erect forts in the lands they conquered; Spain colonized these areas, bringing over their religion and institutions. They set up mines to extract more gold and silver from their new territories.5. The influx of massive quantities of silver along with Spanish constantwar-mongering brought inflation to Europe.6. At home agriculture very inefficient.a. Expulsion of the Jews and Moors who were skilled agriculturalists.b. Most land owned by aristocracy and the Churchc. Lack of incentives for the sharecropping tenants trapped indebt peonage, irrigation systems fell into disrepair.d. The preferential treatment of sheep herders further devastatedagriculture.7. In 1588, British navy defeats the Spanish Armada signaling the beginning of the end of the SpanishEmpire. Also suffered from high administrative costs.D. The Netherlands1. Location, location, location. –Well placed for sea access and trade, good, longcoastline.2. Very skilled agriculturalists.3. Specialization in livestock, dairy, tulips, and intensive farming.4. Skill in land reclamation.5. Early rise of the modern economy.6. Less reliance on agriculture. Were able to import a lot of their food (grain).7. Rise of