PSC 101 Exam 2 Study Guide Lectures: 7-15Part I Campaigns, Elections, and TurnoutProcess:1. Setting the stage2. People choose whether to enter the race3. Candidate start fundraising4. Formal campaigning starts5. People decide where to vote6. People decide who to vote for7. We elect someoneSetting the Stage- Place matters- Voters differ upon location- “Legal Context” Method of election Place defines legal context of election Defining the electorate Who can vote  Process to register Defining the election process Financing laws How fundraising happens Corporations cant donate directly- “Times Context” Economy, wars, large scandals, etc. Retirements Timing makes a difference If time favors you then you will do wellWhy Context Matters- Goal is to help people- Candidates have to give something up (Give up job or run)- A majority of politicians are strategic- Run based on long-term goals- Running against odds Odds in a specific office Odds in a specific district Odds in a specific year- People who choose not to run can’t win- If the odds are good then run- If the odds are bad then don’t runMethods of Election- Many types of elections Plurality SMD, MMD Plurality- Whomever gets the most votes wins SMD- Single member district SMD (office that elects one person [representative]) MMD- Multi member district MMD (more than one person running simultaneously) Runoff SMD or MMD Proportional representation 40% vote gets 40% of seats in law making body Various weirdo- All are biased Always in favor or someone can’t be neutral Never fair- Partisan vs. nonpartisan elections Partisan- Party of candidate is stated on ballot Nonpartisan- Party of candidate not stated on ballotDefining Electorate- Democratic- white man part of political process boundaries of political entities- Who can vote?- Historically: expansion of electorate 1820’s-1830’s, “universal suffrage” Later extended to non-Anglos, women (civil rights)- Drawing districts (etc.) fits here too Who can vote for this office instead of that office Gerrymandering (to be discussed later in course)Election Process- Election process determined politically How do you get on the ballot? Name you use vs. name on government id Varies state to state, county to county, and year to year In what order do names appear? Very important to candidates Want to be seen first Mechanism/process of voting? Who electronic voting machines?Campaign Finance- Differ depending on person and election style- Donations are limited- Spending is not limited- Fundraising How much you raise is limited How much you give away is limited- State elections regulated by state law- People with more money do better Do people who will do better get more money?- Endogeneity- Caused by own process, causes and is caused by indignating (bad) lookTemporal Context- Individual vote doesn’t make a difference- How well the year is going is a good way to predict who’s going to win elections- Elections have low stakes for voters- Elections have high stakes for candidates- Good candidates tend to run when time favors them Economy good or bad, depending on who’s currently in the White House Democrats in office now and economy is bad so a Republican running would have a good chance of winning Scandals in opposition Open seats vs. fighting incumbents Am I up for election this year?Why Temporal Context Matters- It matters because politicians are strategic - Who wins is in large part a matter of who runs When strong challengers don’t run, incumbents win- Very important in CongressWe Have Candidates- People turn out to vote- Voter turn out low in US- Voter turn out hasn’t increased much- MobilizationPart II Turnout and VotingWhy Turn Out? I- Basic decision- Turn out takes time- So your candidate wins- Consider cost-benefit terms- What do you get if you turn out? You help your candidate win Benefit B- how much you like your candidate compared to the other ones- What does it cost? Little in direct $ Little $ cost but cost time  $ if you work, you are basically paying to vote Opportunity cost Time What else could you be doing instead of going to vote? Informational cost Learning about candidates Cost CWhy Turnout? II- If Benefit > Cost If there are 10,000 voters Your candidate receives 6,000 votes, your vote doesn’t help your candidate, because he already won and you get the benefit without having to vote- Run if the probability of Benefit > Cost- Like gambling or investingWhy Turn Out? III- Vote if Benefit > Cost There 10,000 voters Your vote only helps- only gets you Benefit- if your vote makes or breaks atie This happens with probability p- Flip a coin if there is a tie in the electionWhy Turn Out? IV- Probability P is very low Close doesn’t count- So, nobody should vote Unless they think one candidate is much better than the other- Theories and testing them Theory: people vote in order to elect their preferred candidates Prediction: nobody votes Problem: theory is wrong because people aren’t voting for preferred candidatesA Way Around This- D = citizen duty The good feeling you get from going to vote, even if our candidate loses Even if your vote didn’t necessarily matter- Run if (pB + D) > C- Similar to playing a slot machine or listening to lottery resultsImplications of (pB + D) > C- C- Costs of voting – important Reduce cost and maybe more people will vote- D – Citizen duty – important Make people feel bad so they’ll vote Critical- B – Difference between candidates Not too importantPredictors of Turn OutThese groups are more likely to vote: Group Possible reasonWealthier Lower C (informational)More educated Lower C (informational)Older People Lower C (opportunity) Higher D?Contacted by campaign Lower C Higher D?