MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms. 21L.017 The Art of the Probable: Literature and Probability Spring 2008Victoria Brumbaugh Shankar Raman 21L.017 Essay One Rewite Action and Uncertainty in Pascal’s Wager and Shakespeare’s Hamlet Pascal and Hamlet both struggle with the question of how to act under circumstances of constant uncertainty. Hamlet deeply desires conviction before he acts, while Pascal argues that our actions will lead to belief. And, since we can never be absolutely certain, only the highest in a set of probabilities should dictate our actions. Though they try to weigh finite probabilities against the infinite, both Hamlet and Pascal recognize that the human condition limits our ability to know the infinite consequences of our actions and choices. To understand these probabilities, Pascal reasons through rigid, calculable steps. His process contrasts sharply with Shakespeare’s representation of temperamental human logic in Hamlet. Hamlet’s distorted reasoning highlights our mortal tendency to fixate on even the smallest risks in the shadow of vast gain. As Shakespeare writes, “Thus conscience does make cowards of us all1” (3.1.83). Hamlet’s cowardice and self-analysis constantly cause him to falter, leading to indecision, inaction, and uncertainty – the pervasive themes in Hamlet. The play is littered with conflicts that arise out of the indeterminable nature of motivation, consequence, and the afterlife. When Hamlet meets the ghost of his father, he is incensed by the account of the murder and determined to exact revenge. However, doubt gradually settles on him. How can he be certain of the ghost’s origin? How can anyone know the truth in a crime with no witnesses? Hamlet must satisfy his need for greater certainty before taking action: … The spirit that I have seen May be a devil, and the devil hath power 1 William Shakespeare, Hamlet, ed. A. R. Braunmuller (New York: Penguin Books, 2001). 1T’ assume a pleasing shape, yea, and perhaps Out of my weakness and my melancholy, As he is very potent with such spirits, Abuses me to damn me. I’ll have grounds More relative than this… (2.2.533-542). To humans, ghosts are an inherently uncertain state of being. No mortal can offer tenable evidence of a spiritual limbo or universally understand that reality. But the ghost assumes Hamlet’s trust and calls for action in an already uncertain situation, adding another layer of obscurity. Hamlet recognizes the risks in acting impulsively on the unsustainable testimony of a dubious being, and so he invents a more objective way to test Claudius’ conscience. Hamlet has the players act out a scene similar to the murder of King Hamlet, and gauges his uncle’s reaction. Hamlet’s plan, however, creates a new dimension of uncertainty. Can Hamlet really know the guilt of his uncle’s or any man’s conscience by reading his behavior? After all, Hamlet himself spends most of the play pretending to be genuinely insane when he’s not, and in the first act indicates there is more to a man than how he seems: “…These indeed seem/For they are actions that a man might play,/But I have that within which passes show-“ (1.2.83-85). Hamlet shows that he views action and sincerity as two separate elements that only truly come together if one has the sincerity first. Pascal, on the other hand, claims that the only way to become faithful is to act as a believer first and let belief follow. Pascal would have argued, “So concentrate not on convincing yourself by increasing the number of proofs…but on diminishing your passions.2” (Pascal 155). In releasing expectations and following the way of those who do believe whole-heartedly, the natural effect will be faith even in the ones who thought they were incapable of 2 Blaise Pascal, Pensées and Other Writings (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991) 2true belief. Regardless of the strength or weakness of one’s conviction, acting with confidence (even if insincere at first) creates a stronger, genuine belief. Uncertainty, according to Pascal, can be overcome through action and outward show. Conversely, Hamlet is immobilized by uncertainty. Unlike Pascal, Hamlet needs to believe in his choice of action before he can perform it. He is thoughtful to the point of obsession, and constantly puts off action for the sake of having a more solid reason to do it. Hamlet recognizes his own hesitancy, and often berates himself for not being as passionate and resolved as the actor is in relation to the fictional Hecuba, or as Fortinbras’ soldier is over an inconsequential piece of land. All the while that he, Hamlet, has the strongest reason to act – his father’s wrongful death and his mother’s disgraceful marriage – all he does is complain: Why, what an ass am I! This is most brave, That I, the son of a dear father murdered, Prompted to my revenge by heaven and hell, Must like a whore unpack my heart with words And fall a-cursing like a very drab, A stallion! Fie upon’t, foh! About, my brains. (2.2.521-6). Hamlet is ashamed that he replaces action with angry words. He curses himself, thinking he lacks the passion that should move him, considering the sins against his family. Actually, he lacks rational proof. Though Hamlet has what seem like compelling reasons to attack his uncle, he is still uncertain of those reasons, and the consequences of his actions could be severe. If he had a firmer basis to believe the ghost’s accusations, he could act without delay. Claudius’ response to the play gives Hamlet exactly the motivation he needs. 3Seeing Claudius’ outrage at the murder scene, Hamlet tells Horatio, “O good Horatio, I’ll take the ghost’s word for a thousand pound. Didst perceive?” (3.2.281-2). The ghost’s once dubious story becomes a good bet in light of Claudius’ angry reaction. At a thousand pounds, the truth of the murder is likely enough that Hamlet is willing to take action. Pascal would have appreciated Hamlet treating complicated possibilities as finite, calculable probability. On the most complicated topic, God’s very existence, Pascal managed to simplify it thus: “God is, or is not… There is an infinite chaos separating us. At the far end of this infinite distance a game is being played and the coin will come down heads or