The Case of the Unanswered Questions The setting at new Task 1 Boston Electronics Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Sales 587.1 610.2 650.0 689.0 730.3 358.1 378.3 409.5 434.1 460.1 64.6 67.1 71.5 75.8 80.3 Depreciation 88.1 91.5 97.5 103.4 109.6 76.3 73.2 71.5 75.8 80.3 25.9 24.9 24.3 25.8 27.3 0 0 0 0 0 50.4 48.3 47.2 50.0 53.0 58.7 61.0 65.0 68.9 73.0 17.9 18.9 20.5 21.7 23.0 411.0 427.1 455.0 482.3 511.2 487.6 507.1 540.5 572.9 607.3 Liabs and equity 48.9 50.9 54.2 57.4 60.9 Equity 438.7 456.2 486.3 515.5 546.4 487.6 507.1 540.5 572.9 607.3 It is January 1, 2001. You have worked for several years at Boston Electronics. Yesterday, the CEO informed you that she would be retiring, effective immediately, and the Board of Directors has appointed you the new CEO. After a brief celebration, you arrive work today ready to accept your responsibilities. You are immediately confronted with a number of investment and financing decisions. Your first priority is to understand the company’s financial condition. You have collected the following information, and you estimate that Boston Electronics’ cost of capital is 10%. Projected income statements ($ million) Cost of goods sold Selling and admin. EBIT Taxes Interest Net income Projected balance sheets ($ million) Assets Accts receivable Inventory Property, plant, equip. Total assets Accts payable Total liabs and equity (A copy of this data is included on the last page of the exam; feel free to tear off that sheet for reference on the following questions.) 1(a) The income statement looks pretty good, but you realize that cashflows matter more. What are the firm’s projected cashflows for 2001 – 2004? Specifically, what are the cashflows from operations and how much is the firm spending each year on new property, plant, and equipment? (Note: Capital expenditures = PP&Et – PP&Et-1 + depreciationt) (b) Cashflows that the firm doesn’t use for new investment are called ‘free cashflows.’ You decide to pay this cash as dividends each period. What is the firm’s expected payout ratio in years 2001 – 2004? 2(c) You project that the payout ratio and ROE for 2004 will be maintained indefinitely into the future. If so, how quickly will the firm grow? How much is the firm worth today? (Note: ROEt = net income / beginning of period book equity) (d) You decide that the firm’s payout ratio might be too high – that it might be a good idea to reinvest more of the firm’s earnings in new assets. If you decrease the payout ratio by 10%, how will this affect the firm’s growth rate and stock price? (Either a quantitative or a qualitative answer is fine, but you should support your answer.) 3Task 2 Boston Electronics is broken up into regional divisions. The manager of the Northwest division gives you a proposal to expand aggressively in Canada. Although this would require an investment in a new factory, he says that the increase in profits would be worth it. Do you agree? The manager has made the following projections. The new factory would cost $60 million (immediate cashflow) and will be depreciated over 5 years beginning in 2001. The firm can depreciate the factory, for both tax and accounting purposes, using straight-line depreciation. The salvage value of the factory will be $10 million. Marketing and selling expenses will be $8 million per year. Sales are expected to be $40 million in 2001, jumping to $70 million in years 2002 – 2005. Cost of good sold will be $25 million in 2001 and $35 million in 2002 – 2005. Inventory will be zero and the tax rate is 34%. Should you proceed with the project? If so, how much will it add to firm value? 4Task 3 If you proceed with the expansion into Canada, you will need to raise cash to finance the new factory. Boston Electronics currently has no debt in its capital structure, but you think that debt financing might be an attractive way to raise money. You collect the following data from The Wall Street Journal. U.S. Treasury STRIP yields Maturity Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Yield 5.40% 5.70% 5.95% 6.15% 6.30% (a) If the expectations hypothesis is accurate, what do the bond yields tell you about future inflation and short-term interest rates? Be explicit: what are the expected one-year spot rates for 2002 – 2005? (b) You were considering selling 5-year bonds to match the 5-year life of the Canada project. However, after looking at the STRIP yields, your CFO suggests that short-term borrowing might be a better alternative. He suggests, for example, that the firm could borrow $60 million for one year and then repay the loan with new borrowing (repeating for all five years). Should you reward the CFO for his clever insight or fire him? Why? 5Task 3, cont. (c) Suppose you decide to issue 3-year bonds (assume annual coupon payments). You estimate that your firm would have a AA bond rating. This implies that you could borrow at about 1% above the yield on government bonds for all maturities. At what price could you sell a 3-year bond with a face value of $1000 and a coupon rate of 6%? (d) You consider the possibility of borrowing in Canada rather than the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reports that Canadian interest rates are roughly 1% lower than those in the U.S. In general terms (not numbers), how should this information affect your financing decision? 6� � � � � � � � Formula sheet CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4NPV = CF0 + + + + + � (1 + r) (1 + r)2 (1 + r)3 (1+ r)4 1 − 1 PV of an annuity = C × r r(1 + r)T C PV of a perpetuity = r C PV of a growing perpetuity = r − g 1 + real rate of interest = (1 + nominal rate) / (1 + inflation rate) CF al min no real CFt = t (1 + rate) inflation t k EAR = [1 + APR / k]− 1 C CC C C + FV Bond price (general) = + + + + � + (1+ r) (1+ r2)2 (1 + r3)3 (1+ r4)4 (1 + rT)T 1 11 FV −Bond price (semiannual coupons) = Coupon × + r/2 (1 r/2 + r/2)2T (1 + r/2)2T Spot rate: (1 + rt)t = (1 + r1) × (1 + f2) × (1 + f3) × … × (1 + ft) (1 + rt)t Forward rate: 1 + ft = (1 + rt 1)t−1 -PV(CF1) ⋅1 + PV(CF2) ⋅ PV(CF )Duration = 2 + 3 ⋅ 3 + ... + PV(CFT) ⋅ T Price Price Price Price % change in price ≈ – Duration × r in change 1 + r Div1 Div2 Div3 Div4Stock price = + + + + � (1 + r) (1 + r)2 (1 + r)3 (1 + r)4 Div EPS Stock price = = rr 8� � � � Div1Stock price = r − g EPS Stock price =