PowerPoint PresentationSlide 2Slide 3A contentious subjectConfusionSlide 6Population Summit of the World’s Scientific Academies New Delhi,1993Defining the Schools of Thought around the Earth Summit at Rio, 1992Slide 9Slide 10Asymmetry in the population policy arenaSlide 12Population-and-Environment: a sensitive, taboo subject.Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Why? An unintended legacy of CairoSlide 18Theories of fertility declineNew observations by the United Nations Population DivisionDr. Heligman’s examples – the S-E model has not predicted:The new shift goes public:Slide 23Slide 24BongaartsSlide 26MsSlide 28Slide 29Slide 30Slide 31Slide 32Martha M. Campbell, Ph.D.Center for Entrepreneurship in International Health and Development (CEIHD) School of Public Health, UC Berkeley Fertility, Development and the Politics of PopulationA progression…1 billion 1800 200,000? years2 billion 1930 130 years3 billion 1960 30 years4 billion 1975 15 years5 billion 1987 12 years6 billion 1999 12 yearsA contentious subjectWhy?• Involves sensitive subjects – including sex and traditional values around reproduction• At least tough ethical questions, rarely examined• Causality hard to define in a complex systemConfusion1.…between 2 Qs: “is population a problem?” and “what reduces fertility?” Caution, fertility has two meanings: Demography: how many children a woman (or a couple) hasBiology: whether a living being is able to produce offspring2.…between necessary and sufficient.A range of positionsPopulation and poverty: • Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Question. US National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, 1986• Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Nancy Birdsall, Steven Sinding, Allen Kelley, Oxford University Press 1991Population and environment: “Obvious” vs. doubts – or math:• “Ecological footprint”, “overshoot”, Mathis Wackernagel, Redefining Progress• Nile - Ethiopia/Sudan/Egypt…China, water tablesPopulation Summit of the World’s Scientific Academies New Delhi,1993“If current predictions of population growth prove accurate and patterns of human activity on the planet remain changed, science and technology may not be able to prevent irreversible degradation of the natural environment and continued poverty for much of the world.”Defining the Schools of Thought around the Earth Summit at Rio, 19921. Influential in international policy arena2. Common objectives and beliefs3. Line up behind their more vocal proponentsPOPMKTDSTWINVTCAsymmetry in the population policy arenaPOP MKT DST WIN VTCPrimary interestsIssues re populationChosen policy actionsBeliefsSubjects not included\W PP WPPPAsymmetry in the population policy arenaPOP MKT DST WIN VTCPrimary interestsIssues re populationChosen policy actionsBeliefsSubjects not included\W PP WPPPPopulation-and-Environment: a sensitive, taboo subject.Many people now feel it is inappropriate to say that slowing population growth will make it more possible to preserve the environment (including ecosystems, species, water) for future generations.Population-and-Environment: a sensitive, taboo subject.Many people now feel it is inappropriate to say that slowing population growth will make it more possible to preserve the environment (including ecosystems, species, water) for future generations.Population-and-Environment: a sensitive, taboo subject.Many people now feel it is inappropriate to say that slowing population growth will make it more possible to preserve the environment (including ecosystems, species, water) for future generations.Decision in UN at Cairo Prepcom IV, 1994Population-and-Environment: a sensitive, taboo subject.Many people now feel it is inappropriate to say that slowing population growth will make it more possible to preserve the environment (including ecosystems, species, water) for future generations.1992 to 2002, Rio to JohannesburgWhy?An unintended legacy of Cairo Cairo ignored the Academies’ statement, and fostered a belief that focusing on demographic outcomes as one reason for offering family planning will lead to coercion – or may be inherently coercive.This belief assumes that family planning is asking people to do something that they do not want to do. (In reality, all over the world there is a very large unmet need for family planning.)The new shift, around the Johannesburg summitTheories of fertility declinePOP MKT DST WIN VTCPrimary interestsIssues re populationChosen policy actionsBeliefsSubjects not included\W PP WPPPFP S-E S-E S-E S-ENew observations by the United Nations Population Division“In a number or countries we are seeing fertility decline that can’t be explained by education or economic development.” Dr. Larry Heligman, United Nations, Population Division, April 2002Dr. Heligman’s examples – the S-E model has not predicted: Date TFRGhana 1985-90 6today4.9Cote d’Ivoire 1985-906.9today4.6Bangladesh 1992 4.92001 3.3Today, the average woman age 20 to 24 in Bangladesh wants 2 children.The new shift goes public: “Only a few years ago, some experts argued that economic development and education for women were necessary precursors for declines in population growth. Today, village women and slum families in some of the poorest countries are beginning to prove them wrong, as fertility rates drop faster than predicted toward the replacement level.”Barbara Crossette, NY Times Aug. 20, 2002“Lowering fertility leads to slower population growth, allowing more time for coping with the adverse effects of that growth, and easing stress on the environment.”The Global Science Panel’s statement for Johannesburg:Population in Sustainable Development July 2002Recommending investment in voluntary family planning and reproductive health programs: “Since research has shown that many women in high-fertility countries have more children than they actually want, these programs allow couples to have the number of children they desire, thus reducing unwanted childbearing and lowering fertility rates.The Global Science Panel’s statement for Johannesburg, July 2002 :Population in Sustainable