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Lecture 2, Sept. 4th 2002I INTRODUCTIONPopulation, Poverty and EnvironmentIII. AsymmetryLecture 2, Sept. 4th 2002By Martha CampbellI INTRODUCTIONThis lecture draws on Martha Cambell’s article “ School of Thought: An Analysis ofInterest Groups Influential in Population Policy”. The 1998 paper explores the politicalsituation in the international population policy arena surrounding the Earth Summit inRio de Janeiro in 1992, leading to the Population Summit in Cairo in 1994.In Table 1 we see the rapid increase in the growth of the world’s population from 1 billionin 1800 to 6 billion in 1999. It took approximately 200,000 years for the world’spopulation to grow to 1 billion. It took only 130 years for the world’s population todouble to two billion. Growth rates have accelerated, reaching 3 billion only some 30years after the 2nd billion. The fourth billion took 15 years, and the 5th and the 6th billiontook just twelve years. Contemporary policy debates reveal conflicting interests and beliefs about population. While some groups seek to increase attention to population growth, which they perceive as harmful to the environment or hindering development, other influential groups, leaders, or schools of thought, attempt to reduce attention to population growth and draw attention to their priority issues. The debate is an important one: it sets policy, it influences budgets, and ultimately it may determine the future of the planet.Population is a contentious policy subject for a number of reasons:(i) Sensitive SubjectPopulation is a sensitive subject because it is about life and death, cultural values, religion, political power, distribution of wealth, and sex. To add complexity, at least four basic ethical questions are central but usually unexamined. They are about (1) responsibility to present versus future generations, (2) individual versus community rights and benefits, (3) average versus total quality of life, and (4) the distribution of resources and opportunity. For example, the much debated concept of “carrying capacity”depends on specifying what level of consumption is required for an "adequate" life, and that issue involves all of these ethical questions.(ii) CausalityMany people have difficulty in seeing population as an important concern. This is partly because it is hard to demonstrate causality in a complex system. For any given change in the environment or human conditions, plausible explanations are likely to overlap, and there is plenty of evidence to back up everyone's claims. For example, it is difficult to connect population growth and forest depletion when someone has persuasive evidence that land use policies and practices are more to blame than the number of people on the land.1A clear view of causal connections is important to policymakers, who are responsible for allocating scarce resources. Lawrence Summers (1991), speaking as chief economist of the World Bank, noted the difficulties of planning in this area when the causal relationships concerning population growth and environmental degradation, causes of migration, links between population growth and inequality in the wage structure, and the fiscal implications of population growth are all unclear. Peter Haas (1992) points out that in these situations of uncertainty, policymakers turn to experts for advice. In the case of population policy, given the differing perspectives on the subject, at least five groups claiming substantive evidence are providing advice. Each has a different set of answers.(iii) Confusion.There is confusion between two important questions: “Is population growth a problem?”And, if so, “What reduces fertility?” Where fertility may be defined as in the field ofdemography – number of children per woman, or, as in the field of biology – ability toconceive and bear children.There is also confusion between necessary and sufficient conditions. For example, bysolving population growth you would not solve all economic development orenvironmental problems. However, it may be necessary to address the population growthproblem before economic development can be successfully achieved. In other words,reducing population growth rates may be a necessary but not sufficient condition toachieve sustainable development.Population, Poverty and EnvironmentPresently, there are a range of positions regarding population and poverty. Dr. Ron Lee’spaper (which paper?- a late 1980s policy report he referred to) had a large impact. Thispaper stipulated that it could not be empirically shown that population growth was amajor problem for economic development. The political implication of this paper wasthat less emphasis was placed on family planning by governments and developmentagenciesA new book , Population Matter (citation?? I thought it was 2001 but is it the 1991 yourefer to in your slides), written by a group of economists and demographers, takes a freshlook at demographic change, economic growth and poverty in the third world. Theauthors were especially concerned with the effect of age distribution and dependencyratios on economic development. With high dependency ratios (large youth or olderdemographic proportion), economic growth will suffer because of the burden ofproviding adequate health, education and other services to a large non-productivepopulation. . When the reverse is true (low dependency ratios), economic developmentcan take off – such as in East and Southeast Asia in the 1980s. This book points out thathigh population growth rates can deter economic development, and contribute to poverty. Population is also a concern for many due to negative environmental impacts. Campbellpointed out that one just needs to look at where the pressure points are in terms of the2number of people. For example, Egypt receives all of its’ water from the Nile. However,the Nile runs through Ethiopia and Sudan. Ethiopia grew rapidly from 5 million to 60million and has destroyed most of its forest along the Nile and uses this water heavily.Sudan is also a fast growing country and this will also put pressure on the use of the NileRiver. Egypt’s main water supply is the Nile and if there are large increases in populationgrowth in the countries where the Nile travels, access to water may become a seriousproblem in Egypt. China too has experienced


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Berkeley A,RESEC 298 - Lecture 2

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