1 Background Data: Nuclear Weapons, Missiles, and the Red Dragon Rising Game Randy H. Katz CS Division, EECS Dept. University of California, Berkeley Spring 2011 The Atomic Bomb • “The A-bomb ended the war, but radar won it.” • Aug. 1945: Single bomb destroys an entire city – Little Boy • Uranium bomb dropped on Hiroshima • 8900 lbs, 16 Ktons TNT – Fat Man • Plutonium bomb dropped on Nagasaki • 10300 lbs, 21 Ktons TNT Offensive and Defensive Responses • Longer Range, Faster, Higher Flying Bombers to deliver the bombs – March 1946: Strategic Air Command formed – B-52 first flies in 1954 • Bigger Hydrogen (Fusion vs. Fission) Bomb – Aug. 1949: First Soviet Atomic Bomb – Nov. 1952: First US H-bomb test (10 Mtons) – Nov. 1955: Soviet Union explodes their first H-Bomb • O-T-H Radars and Defensive Lines – 1957-9: DEW (Distant Early Warning) Line • Anti-Aircraft Missiles to intercept bombers – 1944: Design of Nike Ajax system Ballistic Missiles: Germany’s V-2 Rocket • Over 1000 fired at London towards end of WW 2 • Could destroy a city block—but very inaccurate • 2700 killed, 6500 injured • Psychological effect: Essentially no warning and no defense, other than to destroy the launching sites • What if you marry a nuclear warhead to a rocket? Ballistic Missiles: How to Intercept? • Most vulnerable during boost phase • Hard to intercept during terminal phase: “bullet hitting a bullet”! • Also consider effects of nuclear air burst caused by interception—must be 20 mi up or more Boost Phase 200 mi up 15000 mph 300 s Midcourse Phase 800 mi up 20 minutes Terminal Phase 5 minutes2 Weird Logic of Nuclear Deterence • Massive Retaliation: Invade a little country, and we will destroy you—only works as a deterrent if the other guy has no nuclear weapons • Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): “Whoever shoots first, dies second” – Sufficient counterforce that no matter what the aggressor does—even if he destroys a considerable number of the defender’s missiles on the ground—missiles will likely survive to still threaten his cities with utter destruction – U.S.: No first use policy • Strategic Triad/Flexible Response – Ground-based Missiles (ICBMs): arrive in 20-30 minutes – Strategic Bombers: time on target 12 hours – Nuclear Submarines (SLBMs): can lay in wait for days or even months—assuming subs remain invisible and know that their home country has been destroyed Cuban Missile Crisis • Cold War: Great power politics in Asia, Middle East, Africa, Latin America – Communist insurgencies and Soviet-leaning governments in N. Korea, N. Vietnam, Cuba – E.g., U.S. response: CIA-supported Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba (1961) • Soviet fears of U.S. “Massive Retaliation” — How to reach parity with the Americans when USSR is so technologically far behind? – Soviet missiles of the time could only reach European cities from their launching sites – U.S. deploys medium range missiles in Turkey in a highly provocative move (April 1962)—Soviets now fear a first strike! • Soviet response: deploy own missiles into Cuba (September 1962) Soviet-Cuban Friendship Castro declares his country “Communist” after the Bay of Pigs Seeks protection from U.S. aggression through support of Soviet Union Cuban Missile Crisis • Medium range missiles could reach Dallas or DC in 5 minutes • Longer range missiles could reach virtually any major U.S. city • Soviets: restores the MAD equation • U.S.: what if their missiles could “decapitate” our ability to strike back? Mitigates MAD Cuban Missile Crisis U-2 Reconnaissance Plane Reconnaissance Photo3 “Red Dragon Rising” • Rise of China as a World Power – 1947-9: Red Army expels Nationalist Chinese government to Taiwan – 1950-3: Korean War • The Cold War becomes HOT • North Korea in battle invades South Korea • UN (USA) intervenes on behalf of South Korea • China intervenes on behalf of North Korea • Cease fire along the DMZ 38th Parallel – Recent threats: Russia, Vietnam, India The 24 Character Strategy “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.”– Deng Xiaoping Military Power of the People’s Republic of China Report to Congress, 2008 • “The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. China’s expanding and improving military capabilities are changing East Asian military balances; improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region.”4 Military Power of the People’s Republic of China Report to Congress, 2008 • “China’s nuclear force modernization, as evidence by the fielding of the new DF-31 and DF-31A intercontinental-range missiles, is enhancing China’s strategic strike capabilities. China’s emergent anti-access/area denial capabilities – as exemplified by its continued development of advanced cruise missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to strike ships at sea, including aircraft carriers, and the January 2007 successful test of a direct-ascent, anti-satellite weapon– are expanding from the land, air, and sea dimensions of the traditional battlefield into the space and cyber-space domains.” DF-21 (CSS-5) MRBM • 60-80 • 500kT nuclear warhead • over a distance of 1,800km • 3-400m CEP Crisis in the Straits • 1999: President Lee of the ROC: “The Republic of China has been a sovereign state since it was founded in 1912. Moreover, in 1991, amendments to the Constitution designated cross-strait relations as a special state-to-state relationship. Consequently, there is no need to declare independence. The resolution of cross-strait issues hinges on the issue of different systems. We cannot look at issues related to the two sides simply from the perspective of unification or independence. The Chinese mainland's promise of a "one country,