Fossil Fuel CO2 Dave Keeling Trends are related to fossil fuel Annual cycle due to terrestrial biosphere exchanges Global Temperatures Figure SPM 3 Figure SPM 2 The Vostok Ice Core CO2 CH4 and estimated global temperature Antarctic T 2 in ice core era 0 1880 1899 mean Source Hansen Clim Change 68 269 2005 Figure 5 4 Trends in Ocean Temp Upper 300 m heat content 1948 to 1998 data show increase in time 0 31oC over 50 years 22 Trends in Ocean Temps Total heat content over upper 3000 m Volume increase of 0 06oC Corresponds forcing of 0 3 W m 2 Figure 5 1 Figure TS 5 Figure 5 A 1 Heat Content Trends 1955 2003 0 700 m Delta 0 25 W m 2 Trends in Temperature 1955 2003 Trends in Salinity 1955 2003 Figure TS 17 Trends in Salinity 1955 2003 Salinity Differences Figure 5 6 99 to 85 55 to 69 A16 Fresher AAIW LSW NPIW Saltier Upper subtropics CDW NADW P16 Figure 5 13 Global sea level reconstructed red tide gauge blue satellite altimeter black Sea Level Change Change in solid earth Tectonics 100 000 s to 108 years Change in seawater volume Glacial sea ice melting hydrological cycle Mostly land ice sea ice is already displacing sea level 100 s to 10 000 s years BIG TERM Sea Level Change Sea Level Change Sea Level Change Change in seawater properties Warming freshening steric height changes 10 s to 1 000 s years BIG TERM Change in atmospheric pressure Inverted barometer Days to years Tides Solar lunar solid Earth Hours to 100 s years Thermal Expansion Sea Level What is ocean heats by 0 1 C Look at change in dynamic height Average T 3 5 C S 34 7 psu 34 7 3 5 2000db 1036 743 kg m 3 Hydrostatic relationship Dynamic height Press g D 0 5000db 5000x104 1036 743 9 8 Thermal Expansion Sea Level Hydrostatic relationship Dynamic height Press g D 0 5000db 5000x104 1036 743 9 8 D 0 5000db orig 4921 22 dyn m IF ocean is 0 1 C warmer then 34 7 3 6 2000db 1036 729 kg m 3 Thermal Expansion Sea Level Hydrostatic relationship Dynamic height Press g D 0 5000db 5000x104 1036 729 9 8 D 0 5000db warm 4921 29 dyn m D 0 5000db orig 4921 22 dyn m Difference 7 cm Budget of Global Sea Level Change 1961 2003 blue 1993 2003 brown Figure 5 13 Global sea level reconstructed red tide gauge blue satellite altimeter black Distribution of tide gauges Figure 5 14 65oS to 65oN sea level from different altimeters Trends in Sea Level 1993 to 2003 Upper sea level Lower thermal expansion Observed rate of change in global sea level black green Contribution from thermal expansion red Land water storage blue Sea Level at Kwaialein 8 7N 167 4E Observed blue reconstructed red satellite green Figure TS 19 Trends in Sea Level 1955 to 2003 Upper sea level Lower thermal expansion Sea Level Change Due to Thermal Expansion Figure 5 19 Three different data sources First EOF model of Thermal Expansion of Sea Level Red dotted SOI Budget of Global Sea Level Change 1961 2003 blue 1993 2003 brown Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt on Greenland Melt descending into a moulin a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base Source Roger Braithwaite University of Manchester UK Increasing Melt Area on Greenland 2002 all time record melt area Melting up to elevation of 2000 m 16 increase from 1979 to 2002 70 meters thinning in 5 years Satellite era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005 Source Waleed Abdalati Goddard Space Flight Center 2005 Melt Area on Greenland Source University of Colorado CIRES courtesy Russell Huff and Konrad Steffen Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly Source Prof Konrad Steffen Univ of Colorado Greenland Mass Loss From Gravity Satellite FAQ 5 1 Figure 1 General Circulation Model Figure TS 23 Figure SPM 4 2x 4x CO2 Simulations Coupled atmosphereocean model Run with 2 4 times preindustrial CO2 concentrations Sometimes these models have active biosphere Huge differences in air temperatures CO2 Emission Scenarios Predicting the future is hard Increases in pCO2 will be huge up to 2 4 times NADW Production IS92a CO2 emission scenario Figure TS 29 Figure TS 28 Figure TS 30 Box TS 2 Figure TS 27 Change in 2090 2099 compared with 1980 1999 Figure TS 31 Stop emission in 2100 Figure TS 32 Box TS 5 CO2 Emission Scenarios Carbon Dioxide Sources Figure 10 29 Population millions in 2000 Region total population United States 283 East Coast West Coast China Taiwan 1275 23 India Sri Lanka 1009 19 Bangladesh 137 Indonesia Malaysia 212 22 Japan 127 Western Europe 454 Population Under Water for given sea level rise 6m 25 m 35m 75m 9 2 93 46 24 23 12 26 41 6 224 146 109 72 39 66 51 9 298 183 117 85 50 88 70 19 484 340 130 117 73 161 Areas Under Water Four Regions Population Density Four Regions Thanx for a great quarter DV