GEOG 5Gillespie, Thomas2012 FallWeek 2Lecture 5October 11th 2012 Announcements- Required readings: chapters 2 and 7 Outline of Last Lecture I. The history of human evolution and distributionOutline of Today’s Lecture II. Population growth over time III. The effect of immigrationIV. Fertility rates around the world Today’s LecturePopulation growth:Memorize for midterm:Year World’s population1650 .5 billion1820 1 billion1930 2 billion1975 4 billion2000 6 billion2012 7 billion This shows that human population growth is exponential!- 3 people are born every second - More and more people are making it to reproductive age - There is a constant increase in life expectancyThe population debate: - Thomas Malthus 1785: o Saw that the British population growth was exponential, whilst food supply was linear. These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.o Predicted that by 1850 the population would be so large that agriculture could not sustain it resulting in mass starvation. o Why was Malthus wrong? 1. People emigrated (left England to colonize other areas) 2. Technology – the Industrial Revolution allowed for more food to be produced over a shorter space of time; agriculture output increases - Paul Ehrlich 1960so Observed the same trend as Malthus (population growth = exponential; food production = linear)o Thesis = by the year 2000 the world would be in chaos with mass wars and starvation o Why was Ehrlich wrong?1. The world’s resources are not distributed evenly! Whilst some countries suffer in poverty others prosper.2. Since the ‘60s there has been a huge effort with family planning.Women’s Reproductive Health: - ‘60s, ‘70s, ‘80s : o Heavily centralized – funding from central government o Incentive based e.g. money granted if you get a vasectomy! o Directed at the head of the family (man) - Now (‘90s, 2000s) o Local control o Access based e.g. if you want it, it’s free and easily accessible o Directed at the woman! As a result of these changes, fertility rate has significantly decreased in many countries!Fertility in the U.S - In California the fertility rate = 2% - this is highly sustainable - BUT – immigration to the U.S causes a strain on population - Immigration: o Native American, Spanish, Europeans o The impact of global conflict: Japanese (WW11) Philippines Korea Vietnam and Mons Persians ArmeniansChinese Cuban Case Study Mass immigration from Cuba to the U.S resulted in the Wet Feet/ Dry Feet policy: this policy stated that if a Cuban could get one foot on dry land (in the U.S) they would become a citizen within 1 year Cuba has seen a huge change in its population growth as a result of many factors: - Cuba is communist – idea of totally equity - Until 1989 the Cuban’s depended on the USSR for everything.- In 1989 the wall falls and the USSR can no longer provide Cuba with resources- This results in Cuba’s economy becoming self sufficient. Many changes took place including: o Use of bicycles o Return of the use of oxen in agricultureo No pesticides o Return of natural predators (insects) o No fertilizers - These changes force Cuban agriculture to become incredibly sustainable and saw a drop in the population growth. - Cuban population growth is now 1.4% which is incredibly sustainable Fertility Rates India - Bad - 1.2 billion people – every month 1.5 million are added!!Pakistan- Bad - 176 million people – population doubles every 40 years!Nigeria - Bad - 162 million people – population doubles every 30 years! - The average woman has 5 children!! Bangladesh - Okay - Huge improvements made - 150 million people- Fertility rate at 2%Mexico- Okay - 114 million people - Fertility rate at 2%Egypt- Okay - 82 million people - Fertility rate is getting close to 2% Iran - Awesome! - Huge improvement due to the opening of 52 medical schools targeting women and ruralareas - Fertility rate dropped from 5% to less that 2% S.E Asia - Awesome! - Average family size 5/6 children in the 1950s/1960s- Now fertility rate is less than 2% China - Awesome! - 1960s average family size = 6 children - Now fertility rate is 1.6% Brazil- Awesome! - 1960s average family size = 6 children - Now fertility rate is