GEOG 5 Gillespie Thomas 2012 Fall Week 2 Lecture 5 October 11th 2012 Announcements Required readings chapters 2 and 7 Outline of Last Lecture I The history of human evolution and distribution Outline of Today s Lecture II Population growth over time III The effect of immigration IV Fertility rates around the world Today s Lecture Population growth Memorize for midterm Year World s population 1650 5 billion 1820 1 billion 1930 2 billion 1975 4 billion 2000 6 billion 2012 7 billion This shows that human population growth is exponential 3 people are born every second More and more people are making it to reproductive age There is a constant increase in life expectancy The population debate Thomas Malthus 1785 o Saw that the British population growth was exponential whilst food supply was linear These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute o Predicted that by 1850 the population would be so large that agriculture could not sustain it resulting in mass starvation o Why was Malthus wrong 1 People emigrated left England to colonize other areas 2 Technology the Industrial Revolution allowed for more food to be produced over a shorter space of time agriculture output increases Paul Ehrlich 1960s o Observed the same trend as Malthus population growth exponential food production linear o Thesis by the year 2000 the world would be in chaos with mass wars and starvation o Why was Ehrlich wrong 1 The world s resources are not distributed evenly Whilst some countries suffer in poverty others prosper 2 Since the 60s there has been a huge effort with family planning Women s Reproductive Health 60s 70s 80s o Heavily centralized funding from central government o Incentive based e g money granted if you get a vasectomy o Directed at the head of the family man Now 90s 2000s o Local control o Access based e g if you want it it s free and easily accessible o Directed at the woman As a result of these changes fertility rate has significantly decreased in many countries Fertility in the U S In California the fertility rate 2 this is highly sustainable BUT immigration to the U S causes a strain on population Immigration o Native American Spanish Europeans o The impact of global conflict Japanese WW11 Philippines Korea Vietnam and Mons Persians Armenians Chinese Cuban Case Study Mass immigration from Cuba to the U S resulted in the Wet Feet Dry Feet policy this policy stated that if a Cuban could get one foot on dry land in the U S they would become a citizen within 1 year Cuba has seen a huge change in its population growth as a result of many factors Cuba is communist idea of totally equity Until 1989 the Cuban s depended on the USSR for everything In 1989 the wall falls and the USSR can no longer provide Cuba with resources This results in Cuba s economy becoming self sufficient Many changes took place including o Use of bicycles o Return of the use of oxen in agriculture o No pesticides o Return of natural predators insects o No fertilizers These changes force Cuban agriculture to become incredibly sustainable and saw a drop in the population growth Cuban population growth is now 1 4 which is incredibly sustainable Fertility Rates India Bad 1 2 billion people every month 1 5 million are added Pakistan Bad 176 million people population doubles every 40 years Nigeria Bad 162 million people population doubles every 30 years The average woman has 5 children Bangladesh Okay Huge improvements made 150 million people Fertility rate at 2 Mexico Okay 114 million people Fertility rate at 2 Egypt Okay 82 million people Fertility rate is getting close to 2 Iran Awesome Huge improvement due to the opening of 52 medical schools targeting women and rural areas Fertility rate dropped from 5 to less that 2 S E Asia Awesome Average family size 5 6 children in the 1950s 1960s Now fertility rate is less than 2 China Awesome 1960s average family size 6 children Now fertility rate is 1 6 Brazil Awesome 1960s average family size 6 children Now fertility rate is 1 9