17.906 The Geopolitics and Geoeconomics of Global Energy, Spring 2007 Prof. Flynt Leverett Lecture 13: The Geopolitics of Energy and U.S. Foreign Policy – Managing Energy Interdependence The US has been extremely influential in how the energy sector has evolved over the course of the last hundred years The US has had a few principle roles in leading the evolution of energy markets • US has been the provider of physical security for global energy markets o Particularly the flow of oil out of the Middle East o Clearly a big military component o Big foreign policy component  Starting in 1945 when Roosevelt met with the current leader of Saudi Arabia, and basically struck an oil for security agreement that every President since has furthered à Pillar of American foreign policy ever since o What is striking is that the US did not assume primary military responsibility for securing oil out of the gulf until the Carter administration (1980)  Three reasons why: à The nature of the vital interest that the US was staking out changed over time • At the end of WWII, the US was not an importer of oil, but it was the largest exporter in the world at the time • The US anticipated being able to continue meeting its own needs for oil for many years after the war, and it didn’t peak until the 1970s • What made Middle Eastern oil so attractive was that the US didn’t know how long they were going to be able to be the exporter for the rest of the world, and Middle Eastern oil was crucial for fueling economic recovery in Europe and Japan after the war • It also helped to curb Soviet influence over the rest of the world • During Cold War the goal was for Saudi oil only to go to US allies • By the 1970s the US was a net importer, which changed the US interest in oil in the Persian Gulf o Made the US more militarily interested in the region à For the first 30 years of the Cold War, the US thought it didn’t have to bare the primary military responsibility for securing energy out of the Gulf • Britain was the primary force for securing oil for the first 25 years o They made most of the states in the region and therefore invested quite a large amount of money and infrastructure and was in a better Cite as: Flynt Leverett, course materials for 17.906 Reading Seminar in Social Science: The Geopolitics andGeoeconomics of Global Energy, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), MassachusettsInstitute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].place, in the US mind, to be the primary force in the region à After Britain got kicked out of many of the countries in the region beginning in the middle of the century the “Twin Pillars”, Saudi Arabia and Iran, came in to fill their spot • Saudi Arabia was the only state in the region that was not a protectorate of Britain • One of the reasons why Saudi Arabia wanted to go to US for alliances was because of the British support of the Hashemite Tribe (see Laurence of Arabia) • Saudi Arabia has a limit to which it can be a pillar o The population of Saudis is actually quite small (18 million) o There are ~70 million Iranians • During the 1970s Iran received a tremendous amount of high-tech weaponry for their security endeavors • In 1970s, there was the Iranian Revolution o After the embassy hostage situation, Iranian relations with the US plummeted • A year later the Soviets invade Afghanistan o The ideas was to position the Soviet military to move into Iran and then secure warm water ports in the gulf • Finally comes the Carter Doctrine outlining how the US will use force to secure oil in the regions “Over the horizon” posture for securing oil • Robust naval presence in the gulf o Create a new fleet (the 5th fleet) and we give that fleet the main responsibility the defense of the flow of oil out of the Middle East o Not a huge land presence  US footprint in the region pretty small • Pre-positioning of equipment in the region so that it could be accessed if needed in a short amount of time o Countries had to agree to give us access  Infrastructure laid in the 1980s  Egypt was key to this à US got unfettered access to the Suez Canal à They let us pre-position equipment and bases in the region (with fly over rights) • Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) o Central Command (CENTCOM) came out of this  Centered in Tampa, FL  In charge of all issues in the Middle East When Iraq invaded Kuwait we really got going in the region • We put hundreds of thousands of troops on the ground • Goal was to push Saddam back across the border and ensure that he didn’t move into Saudi Arabia Cite as: Flynt Leverett, course materials for 17.906 Reading Seminar in Social Science: The Geopolitics andGeoeconomics of Global Energy, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), MassachusettsInstitute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].17.906 The Geopolitics and Geoeconomics of Global Energy Lecture 13 Prof. Flynt Leverett Page 2• CENTCOM gets into full effect • Sect. of Defense and Leverett go to King of SA and ask for the US to be able to put lots and lots of troops in the country o Problem because virtually all of the US military were considered “Infidels” and women also made up ~10% of the military Issues after the first Gulf War • Cheney said in the meeting that the US would not stay longer than was absolutely necessary o Many troops stayed after the first gulf war was over • Osama bin Laden noticed o When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, bin Laden joined the Mujahadin to expel the Soviets o Publicly turned against the Saudi Arabian government for allowing US troops to participate o Al Qaida want the US troops out of the Holy Land of Saudi Arabia  It is not about them hating our freedoms Next time we’ll discuss the consequences of our involvement Cite as: Flynt Leverett, course materials for 17.906 Reading Seminar in Social Science: The Geopolitics andGeoeconomics of Global Energy, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), MassachusettsInstitute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].17.906 The Geopolitics and Geoeconomics of Global Energy Lecture 13 Prof. Flynt Leverett Page