An Eigen Analysis of Ozone and Meteorological Observations over Lake Michigan by Theresa FoleyIllinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana Have Severe Ozone PollutionOzone is a Secondary PollutantTypical High Ozone Synoptic Conditions (6/21/02)Basic Facts of the LADCO Aircraft ProjectStudy ProtocolOzone Principle Components on Ozone Exceedance DayOzone Principle Components on a Non-exceedance DayNO Principle Components on an Ozone Exceedance DayNO Principle Components on a Non-Exceedance DayNO2 Principle Components on an Ozone Exceedance DayNO2 Principle Components on a Non-exceedance DayRelative Humidity Principle ComponentsAir Temperature PCs on an Ozone Exceedance DayAir Temperature PCs on a Non-exceedance DayConclusions: Two Potential OscillationsFuture WorkJanuary 13, 2019 1An Eigen Analysis of Ozone and Meteorological Observations over Lake Michiganby Theresa FoleyJanuary 13, 2019 2Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana Have Severe Ozone Pollution Chicago skyline on a clear day Chicago skyline on an ozone exceedance day (June 23, 2002)January 13, 2019 3Ozone is a Secondary PollutantThe photolysis of NO2 produces oxygen atoms. NO2O + O2 NO + O280-430 nmO3MOxygen combines with molecular oxygen. M is an un-reactive molecule such as N2 or O2 The bottom reaction is the only source of ozone in the atmosphereJanuary 13, 2019 4Typical High Ozone Synoptic Conditions (6/21/02)January 13, 2019 5Basic Facts of the LADCO Aircraft ProjectTwo airplanes were used in the study. The Wisconsin DNR airplane flew over the lake and Dr. Robert Jacko flew over land south of the lake.Between 1994 and 2003, over 600 flights were conductedThis ten year field campaign has NEVER been documented in the peer-reviewed literatureJanuary 13, 2019 6Study ProtocolAll 1999, 2000 and 2001 flight data were evaluated for completeness6/9/1999, 6/13/2001 and 8/8/2001 exceed the 8-hour ozone standard.6/30/2000 and 8/20/2000 did not exceed the 8-hour ozone standard.January 13, 2019 7Ozone Principle Components on Ozone Exceedance DayPC1, 21% Variance PC2, 13 % VarianceJanuary 13, 2019 8Ozone Principle Components on a Non-exceedance DayPC1, 28% Variance PC2, 16% VarianceJanuary 13, 2019 9NO Principle Components on an Ozone Exceedance DayPC1, 25% Variance PC2, 20% Variance10NO Principle Components on a Non-Exceedance DayPC1, 57% Variance* PC2, 18% Variance* *Statistically significant by North testJanuary 13, 2019 11NO2 Principle Components on an Ozone Exceedance DayPC1, 22% Variance PC2, 13% VarianceJanuary 13, 2019 12NO2 Principle Components on a Non-exceedance DayPC1, 34% Variance PC2, 21% VarianceJanuary 13, 2019 13Relative Humidity Principle ComponentsPC1 on exceedance Day, 19% VariancePC1 on non-exceedance day, 14% VarianceJanuary 13, 2019 14Air Temperature PCs on an Ozone Exceedance DayPC1, 21% Variance PC2, 16% Variance15Air Temperature PCs on a Non-exceedance DayPC1, 24% Variance* PC2, 18% Variance* *Statistically significant by North testJanuary 13, 2019 16Conclusions: Two Potential OscillationsThe Chicago-Milwaukee Ozone OscillationThe NO-NO2 Inverse EffectPower plant emissions may have a strong influence on ozone distribution over the lakeRelative Humidity seems less important for ozone formationJanuary 13, 2019 17Future WorkThe 2002 and 2003 met data which measures wind direction. This dataset is at least 3 times larger then the precipitation dataset.Perform eigen analysis of the entire 10 year datasetTrajectory analysis to evaluate influence of power plane