Causes for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability of 3 Layer Soil Moisture Estimates in the Colorado River BasinMotivationBackgroundTasksCorrelation Analysis – Layer 1SM and Nino3Correlation Analysis – Layer 1SM and PDOCorrelation Analysis – Layer 2SM and Nino3Correlation Analysis – Layer 2SM and PDOCorrelation Analysis – Layer 3SM and Nino3Correlation Analysis – Layer 3SM and PDOLayer 1 SM PC1 and Nino3PC1 time-series and Nino3Layer 1 SM PC1 and PDOLayer 1 SM REOF 1 & 2 and Nino3Layer 3 SM PC1 and PDOPC1 time-series and PDOLayer 3 REOF 1 & 2 and PDOSummaryDec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationCauses for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability of 3 Layer Soil Moisture Estimates in the Colorado River BasinATMO 529Class Project PresentationSeshadri RajagopalDec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationMotivation•Soil moisture plays an important role in land- atmosphere interactions at a variety of time scales•Similar to SST it is a slow changing variable. In other words there is a persistence in SM•Distributed observations of soil moisture are rare to find•Most of the analysis is performed on GCM based assimilated values or from Hydrologic modelsDec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationBackground•VIC is a hydrologic model that solves for full water and energy balance•Takes basic atmospheric variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed etc as inputs•Apart from other output it generates, for current purpose I use the soil moisture valuesDec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationTasks•Perform correlation analysis•Perform SVD analysis on the soil moisture data to identify dominant modes of variability•Perform REOF analysis to identify regionalized patternsTestable Hypothesis • Layer 1 soil moisture will show variability similar to the ENSO index, whereas in the deeper layers (2, 3) due to persistence will correlate better to the PDO signal•The spatial patterns of will indicate a higher dominance of PDO in the upper basin, and higher dominance of ENSO in the lower basinDec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationCorrelation Analysis – Layer 1SM and Nino3 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.200.20.4 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.2-0.100.10.20.3 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.200.20.4 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.100.10.20.30.40.5Dec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationCorrelation Analysis – Layer 1SM and PDO Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.500.5 Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.500.5 Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.4-0.200.20.4 Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.4-0.200.20.4Dec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationCorrelation Analysis – Layer 2SM and Nino3 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 115 W 110 W -0.200.20.4 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 115 W 110 W -0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.3 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 115 W 110 W -0.200.20.4 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 115 W 110 W -0.100.10.20.30.40.5Dec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationCorrelation Analysis – Layer 2SM and PDO Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.4-0.200.20.4 Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.4-0.200.20.40.6 Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.200.20.4 Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.200.20.4Dec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationCorrelation Analysis – Layer 3SM and Nino3 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.100.10.20.30.40.5 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.2-0.100.10.20.3 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.2-0.100.10.20.3 Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.2-0.100.10.20.30.4Dec 3, 2007ATMO 529Class project presentationCorrelation Analysis – Layer 3SM and PDO Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.6 Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35 N 40 N 45 N -0.4-0.200.20.40.6 Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly 125 W 120 W 115 W 110 W 105 W 35