Data Analysis and Statistical InferenceSTA 101 Sec 3 SYLLABUS AND COURSE POLICIES Fall, 2004Instructor: Bertrand ClarkeOld Chem [email protected](919) 684 5956Office Hours: TBA(with some exceptions due to travel), or by appointment.Teaching Assistants: TBATA Location: Old Chem 211 AB: Statistical Education and Consulting Center.You can attend any of the office hours held in the SECC; allTAs on staff in the SECC are there to work with you.Course Web Page: http://www.stat.duke.edu/courses/Fall04/sta101.3/Lectures: T/Th 1:15 - 2:30, LSRC/Love AudComputer Labs: All labs are on Mondays in 01 Old Chemistry Building.Section 11L starts at 9:30; 12L starts at 10:30; 13L is at 11:40;All sections last 50 minutes.Text: Freedman, Pisani, and Purves, (1998). Statistics, Third Edition.The lab work will use JMP-IN, which is available from the bookstore.OVERVIEWDoes the Atkins diet help people lose weight? Does vitamin C prevent colds? Should managers walkBarry Bonds or pitch him? Can you predict someone’s university grades from their SAT scores?Is it possible to win money in a casino? Statistics can answer all of these questions. Broadlyspeaking, statistics is a set of methods that help us collect, organize and process data. We usethese tools to uncover relationships between variables, to make predictions, and to discover causalmechanisms. The aim of this course is to help you become statistically literate. You will learnthe main concepts in the field and be equipped to recognize whether quantitative arguments youencounter are accurate or misleading.The course will use few equations, but the ideas are deep—it will not be easy. We shall em-phasize graphical analysis of data and simple but powerful concepts that do not require difficultmathematical manipulations. The main concepts we shall talk about in class are:• Experimental Design and Exploratory Data Analysis• Correlation and Regression• Laws of Probability• Sample Surveys and Sampling Distributions• Estimation and Significance Tests• Bayesian Perspective in Statistical Inference1GRADED WORKGraded work for the course will consist of quizzes, lab work, two midterms, and a final exam.Your final grade will be determined as follows:Final exam 30 %Midterm I 20 %Midterm II 20 %Quizzes 20 %Lab work 10 %Excused absence from an exam requires documentation of a medical or family emergency.Missed quizzes or lab reports will not be excused except in exceptional circumstances (e.g., anathlete who must miss multiple classes may be excused by prior arrangement for specific days, butundocumented minor illness is not excusable). Prior approval from the instructor is needed for allbut emergency situations, and even then email notification is needed at the first reasonable time.If a student has an excused absence from a midterm exam, then the weight of that materialis transferred to the final exam. If a student has an excused absence from a quiz or lab report,then the missing grade will be imputed by the average of all other quiz or lab report grades. If astudent has an excused absence from the final exam, then special arrangements will be made on acase-by-case basis.Each exam, quiz, or lab will receive a letter grade. An A+ corresponds to a score of 4.0, anA corresponds to 3.7, an A- is a 3.3, a B+ is a 3.0, and so forth. The final grade in the courseis determined by the weighted average (as per the table above) of these scores. Breakpoints forgrades occur at the halfway points. For example, the lowest possible average that gives an A- forthe year is 3.15.Quizzes: In many lectures, you will receive a few problems to complete in class, covering materialfrom the current and previous lectures. The problems are similar in spirit to the Exercises andReview Problems in the textbook. These quizzes provide a measuring stick for what you knowand do not know before the exams. They also reward you for doing practice problems in the textand understanding the material. The quiz component of your final grade is the average of the 15highest quiz marks that you receive.Lab Assignments: Each week, there are data analysis problems to be completed in lab. Labsprovide hands-on experience in analyzing data under the guidance of the TAs. The labs teach youhow to apply the skills discussed in lectures and readings.You are graded on lab reports that must be turned in by the end of the assigned lab period.Late lab reports will not be accepted. The lab component of your final grade is based upon the 8highest lab marks that you receive.Lab reportss should be completed in your assigned lab section, unless you are given permissionby the instructor or a TA to complete the lab in another section. This is necessary because spacein the lab is at a premium. In some cases you will be permitted to begin the lab before it is due,but you may not work in 01 Old Chemistry during other class sections; we need the space.Exams: The course webpage has links to instructions for the exams and study materials. Eachexam is cumulative, and will cover all class material to that date.2ACADEMIC HONESTYYou are expected to abide by Duke’s Community Standard for all work for this course. Vio-lations of the Standard will be reported to the Dean of Students for adjudication; the minimumpenalty for cheating is failure in this course. Ignorance of what constitutes academic dishonesty isnot a justifiable excuse for violations.For in-class quizzes and exams, you are required to work alone and for only the specified timeperiod. For labs, you are allowed and encouraged to help each other, but each person must completethe lab report on their own.POLICY FOR GRADING ERRORSEvery effort will be made to mark your work accurately. We are on your side, and want youto receive every point you have worked to earn. However, sometimes grading mistakes happen. Ifyou believe that an error has been made on an quiz, lab report, or exam, please return the paperto the instructor within two weeks, stating your claim in writing.The following claims will be considered for re-grading:(i) points are not totaled correctly;(ii) the grader did not see a correct answer that is on your paper;(iii) your answer is the same as the correct answer, but in a different form (e.g., you wrote acorrect answer as 1/3 and the grader was looking for .333);(iv) your answer to a free response question is essentially correct but stated slightly differentlythan the grader’s interpretation.The following claims will not be considered for