MASON PSYC 612 - Lecture 13: Theory Testing

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PSYC 612, SPRING 2007Lecture 13: Theory TestingApril 23, 2007Contents1 Part 1: A review of the assigned reading(s) 11.1 Runyan (1981) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1.1 Laying out the problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1.2 Examining the explanations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Part 2: Important aspects not covered in the readings 32.1 Causal Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 Multiple Competing Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2.1 Nested explanations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2.2 Orthogonal explanations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.2.3 Mixed explanations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.3 Hypothesis Testing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Part 3: Some ugly details 63.1 Read in your data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.2 Check your data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.3 Conduct your planned analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.4 Check your results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123.5 Correct any errors and rerun the analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Part 1: A review of the assigned reading(s)1.1 Runyan (1981)“For therapeutic purposes, it may be usefl to explore as many meanings as possible for asingle event, but for scientific or explanatory purposes, it is necessary both to critically1assess the plausibility of alternative explanations and then to examine the extent to whichthe remaining explanations supplement or conflict with one another.” Runyan (p. 1073).1.1.1 Laying out the problemWhy did Van Gogh cut off the lower half of his left ear and offer it to a prostitute (Rachel)for safekeeping?Runyan offers multiple psychodynamic explanations:1. frustrated by his brother’s engagement and his failing relationship with Gaugin gener-ated agressive impulses first directed at Gaugin but subsequently turned on himself2. homosexual impulses toward Gaugin lead to a conflict that was resolved by castrationof a phallic symbol3. deflected resentment of his father (represented by Gaugin) toward himself and fulfilledhis Oedipal drive by offering the ear to a prostitute4. emulated the typical practice of the matador where he was both the vanquished andthe vanquisher5. emulated (in reverse) Jack the Ripper’s practices6. unconscious strategy for gaining brother Theo’s attention7. attempted to gain love and care from a family (Roulins) he envied8. identified with the social status of prostitutes and offered his ear as a sympathetictoken9. driven by a desire to please his mother, he eliminated a masculine indicator (i.e., theear is a protuberance) in an effort to show that he was not an agressive and hurtfulmale10. auditory hallucinations lead Van Gogh to cut off the diseased nerves in his ear11. delirium lead Van Gogh to re-enact the Biblical Garden of Gethsemane scene12. symbolically recreated the scene at Calvary whereby he offered his ear to a motherlysurrogate (Rachel)13. attempted to win his mother’s love by offering his own body as a gift while also mockingthe love his mother held for his dead brother VincentSo how do we make sense out of these explanations?21.1.2 Examining the explanationsThe explanations matter little for our purposes but I summarized them above so that youmay see the variability in explanatory processes. Often, you may find yourself generatingexplanations that “fit” with an observed behavior. Recall the fundamental attribution errorwhereby we tend to make inferences of other’s behaviors as if they were trait dependent andour own similar behaviors as if they were state dependent. Those errors come about becausewe attempt to make inferences just like Runyan is attempting to make inferences about VanGogh’s act.One concept worth noting in Runyan’s discussion is “overdetermination.” Many socialscientists use the concept of multiply determined (i.e., caused) events as license to generatean exhaustive list of explanations. Others use the same concept as license to hold ontothe muddle headed conclusion that psychology is far too difficult an area to find singleexplanations. As you can well imagine, overdetermination favors the muddled head andfrustrates the simple mind.Regardless of how we stand, how might we make sense out of these explanations? Considerthe following “aspects” of each explanation:• consistency (is the explanation consistent with the observed event?)• proximity (how close is the explanatory process to the event?)• linkage (what is the causal chain linking the explanation to the event?)• dependencies (are there any critical events or inferences necessary for the explanation?)• refutability (can we actually rule out the explanation?)2 Part 2: Important aspects not covered in the read-ingsMany of you may be asking why I assigned a paper on explaning a single psychobiographicalevent. The reason is quite simple - we all engage in this activity regardless of our scientific,theoretical, or philosophical orientation. We make inferences about individuals when wecollect data - will a person interpret this manipulation as we intend it to be interpreted? Wemake inferences about individuals when we inspect our data - why did this person respond inthis way and produce an “out of range” value? Finally, we make inferences about individualswhen we generalize our findings to others - will these effects be pertinent to others who werenot necessarily represented by my study? These questions lead us to the same conjectureprocess that Runyan described.32.1 Causal InferenceWe must be clear about the distinctions between causal inference and non-causal inferences.The …


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MASON PSYC 612 - Lecture 13: Theory Testing

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