15.301/310, Managerial Psychology Prof. Dan Ariely Lecture 12: Final Lecture (Review) Earn wild card for exam – apeopley to any ? on exam, as if answered correctly Bid for wild card. Don’t want money from you, so going to bid with minutes of sitting against the wall at a 90 degree angle. (wall sit) auctions Either 2nd price auction longest time bid, but using 2nd time or 10th price, 9 highest, set by 10th or nth price, all but 1 person, set by lowest one will be picked, have to do it. Can’t do it, no wild card. Fill out forms Pass 2 more things Experimental session for those that need it Evaluations – we care about your opinions, write about things to change, like, dislike, etc Quickly go through semester w/ slides, main points First, any specific questions you have, want to go over? -Final multiple choice? Yes, and a few short response 15.301 Topic managerial psychology Tell you something about how to think about data Wherever employed, have data, have to analyze it. The question is, how do we think critically about data? Wed, TA session for questions One more comment Playing with idea of 7-10pm next year Terrible? Good? So-so? Books and course packs – if not going to use, give them to us and we will pass them on in your name to the next generation of students. Ok, review Why research in psych?Not only don’t know it all, some things we know wrongly Critical thinking, examples we think are right but are really wrong Cholesterol correlation, causation By the way, if there is anything you want to talk about at any time, or ask questions, please do Discrimination, Berkeley, self selection by departments Matrix A lot of mutual funds, start 100, keep successful, dump rest, etc End, they say, look, these are successful! Could be random effect Some be heads 4x Bible code Evidence every day, could make wrong inferences Famous conductor example Cause long life? No, Self selection Runners select themselves Experiments help, but not solve everything Particular problems with: Placebo effect – real reaction based on expectation Hawthorne effect – pay attention to people, makes them happier. (The change itself) Self fulfilling prophesies – expect you to be good students, look at you more, encourage, and you actually do better Desire to cooperate – people participating trying to help us out Think more critically about data, inferences from data We are very bad measurement tools ourselves. We make lots of mistakes. Use statistics to help ourselves. Perception – not natural to connect to managerial psych Basic human function Link in 2 ways Relativism in perception Perception analogy for processes that happen all the time Visual illusions Perception relative, Perception not a one way street We expect things and we see them Research about perception in brands Expect Coke and get Coke, don’t expect Coke and get Coke, etc Effect on pleasure centers in brain 15.301/310, Managerial Psychology Lecture 12 Prof. Dan Ariely Page 2 of 9an example Separate small amounts easily, bigger need bigger amounts Automaticity, no effort needed, example: vision How things become automatic Not spend too many resources, not have many resources Kept lights off, get used to it When graduate, how want to change lifestyle? Do things not permanent. Example for expectation Story about duck, rabbit People see what they expect 50% of Republicans believe bush signed Kyoto agreement, and it was pro- environment 80% - found WMD in Iraq Perception in brands Container, big effect on perception No good reasons FMRI Brain areas relate to reward Percept rapid, efficient, sometimes wrong All kinds of biases Basketball clip on perception, counting passes Memory Short term, long term, categorization, etc Framework for memory Charts of all these systems Constructive memory – make it up all the time Easy to create false memories Proven in case of child abuse Source monitoring Remember joke, but not where heard it from in same place Constanza effect, like more as see more Even short exposure, people transfer into liking Organizational memory The only one who knows how to… Companies trying to eliminate this, centralize info Urban legends 15.301/310, Managerial Psychology Lecture 12 Prof. Dan Ariely Page 3 of 910% of brain Great wall only manmade construction visible from space If not true, why do we all know this? Memory aids Memory important About making sense out of our lives More complex, less accurate than we would have wanted Emotions and decision making Emotions diff than making logical decision Emotions fast, automatic, triggered by the environment Disappear People believe emotions will last a long time Anger good example Hard to realize, I’m upset right now, but it will pass. Emotions causes or outcome? durability think have big effect for longer anger hard to realize upset, but week later will mean nothing count to 10 good, 1000 better muscular activity positive not clear emotions or thinking are better jams, posters, emotional consumption hot and cold state how think about future, Self control do all kinds of foolish things when exited, aroused, later regret them my research on sexual arousal men have very diff preferences when aroused even if do every day, still have hard time understand how feel when aroused not able to predict own behavior supermarkets pump air with smell of fresh baked goods people hungrier, buy more food food now or in a week, 50 or 51 weeks now is very important 15.301/310, Managerial Psychology Lecture 12 Prof. Dan Ariely Page 4 of 9another way to think about it self control things to help ourselves have self control study groups, etc challenge I gave you what are market mechanisms? Free lunches – people don’t do well, market mech to solve it Able to retire – people don’t start saving Now seems much more important than later Most people in US will never be able to retire How can you create market mechanisms to help them? If can help them, they will be better off Animals have self control Cold, cognitive, hot Decision making Similar to visual illusions All kinds of reasons people make mistakes People irrational Expect if rational Others if not Regret-idea that people care about not only own state, but what could have been, how easy to imagine something else 2 gambles, know about what happened to other, more upset Asymmetric dominance Relative evaluation without A’, hard to