Unformatted text preview:

1 D-4509-2 Road Maps 9 Road Maps 9 A Guide to Learning System Dynamics System Dynamics in Education Project2 A Guide to Learning System Dynamics D-4509-2 Road Maps 9 System Dynamics in Education Project System Dynamics Group Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology November 10, 1997 Latest Revision March 18, 2001 Copyright © 2001 by MIT Permission granted to copy for non-commercial educational purposes STELLA, STELLA II and ithink are trademarks of High Performance Systems Macintosh is a trademark of Apple Computers, Inc. Compiled under the direction of Professor Jay W. Forrester3 D-4509-2 Road Maps 9 Welcome to Road Maps Nine! Road Maps is a self-study guide to learning the principles and practice of system dynamics. This chapter is the ninth in the Road Maps series. Road Maps One through Three give a broad introduction to the field of system dynamics, focusing on understanding the structure and behavior of systems through positive and negative feedback loops. Road Maps Four through Six introduce several generic structures, give a taste of policy analysis and model validity, and provide opportunities for independent modeling. Road Maps Seven and Eight explain some common mistakes and misunderstandings in system dynamics modeling, offer exercises for improving modeling skills, analyze higher-order positive feedback loops as well as oscillating systems, and introduce sensitivity analysis. Road Maps Nine improves your understanding of simple economic systems by modeling the use of credit cards. Another mistakes and misunderstandings paper illustrates how to correctly formulate robust table functions. Road Maps Nine then presents an important generic structure producing the behavior known as “overshoot and collapse.” The chapter also explains how to perform graphical integration qualitatively, without any calculations. The chapter concludes with a paper by Professor John Sterman about using various types of computer models. Topics Covered in Road Maps Nine Improving Modeling Skills - The Credit Card Model (D-4683) by Manas Ratha - Mistakes and Misunderstandings: Table Functions (D-4653) by Leslie A. Martin4 A Guide to Learning System Dynamics D-4509-2 Generic Structures - Generic Structures: Overshoot and Collapse (D-4480) by Lucia Breierova Graphical Integration Exercises - Graphical Integration Exercises Part 5: Qualitative Graphical Integration (D-4675) by Manas Ratha and Helen Zhu Computer Models - A Skeptic’s Guide to Computer Models (D-4101-1) by John D. Sterman Things You’ll Need for Road Maps Nine Modeling Software In order to complete Road Maps Nine and subsequent Road Maps, you will need to have access to modeling software. The Road Maps guides and most papers included in Road Maps were written with the use of STELLA II for the Macintosh. STELLA II is currently available for both the Macintosh and the Windows platforms. If you have any questions about STELLA, contact High Performance Systems (see Appendix). Ask about prices for educational use. Vensim, Powersim, and DYNAMO are other software programs designed for building system dynamics models. Vensim is produced by Ventana Systems, which offers a free introductory version of its software, Vensim PLE, that can be downloaded off the World Wide Web. See the Appendix for more information about obtaining Vensim and Powersim. Notice written June, 2000: We have written a guide on how to use Vensim modeling software for each section of the Road Maps series that involves computer modeling. Each guide is located in the back of the exercise document. When Chapters 1-9 of the Road Maps series were written, STELLA software was the most common beginner modeling program available. Now you may choose from a number of system dynamics modeling software packages. If you would like more information on5 D-4509-2 Road Maps 9 Vensim, please go to http://www.vensim.com. A free version called Vensim PLE is located there. For more detailed information on using Vensim software in the Road Maps series, please refer to the paper titled: “Vensim Guide (D-4856)” in the Appendix section at the end of Road Maps. From now on as additional papers for the Road Maps series are written, the Vensim software will be used exclusively for modeling exercises. A Computer To run the latest version of STELLA, STELLA 5.0, on a Macintosh, you will need an Apple Macintosh computer (68020 processor or higher) with at least 8 MB of RAM, a 12 MB hard disk and System 7.1 or higher. To run STELLA 5.0 for Windows you will need an IBM PC-compatible computer with a 486-class processor running Windows 3.1 or greater. You will need at least 8 MB RAM, a hard disk with a least 16 MB of free space. Previous versions of STELLA have similar requirements. In either case, if you plan on continuing to model, it may be a good idea to have access to a computer with more memory, hard disk space and a faster processor. How to Use Road Maps Nine Road Maps Nine explores several topics in system dynamics through selected readings and exercises. Before each reading or exercise is a short description of the reading and its most important ideas. After each reading or exercise, we highlight the main ideas before moving on. Each chapter in Road Maps contains readings that introduce and strengthen some of the basic concepts of system dynamics. Other readings focus on practicing the acquired skills through various exercises or simulation games. Many of the chapters conclude with a prominent paper from the literature in the field of system dynamics. As part of the spiral learning approach used in Road Maps, many concepts will be briefly introduced early on and then explained later in greater detail. Road Maps contains several series of papers that are spread out over successive chapters. Each of these series focuses on a specific topic or skill in system dynamics. The6 A Guide to Learning System Dynamics D-4509-2 series start with a simple paper, and progress to further develop the idea in subsequent chapters. Road Maps present the fundamental concepts of system dynamics as System Principles. These principles are enclosed in boxes that highlight them from the rest of the text to emphasize their importance. The progression of system principles in Road Maps allows you to revisit each principle several times. Each time a principle is revisited in Road Maps, you will build upon your previous understanding of the principle


View Full Document

MIT 15 988 - Study Notes

Download Study Notes
Our administrator received your request to download this document. We will send you the file to your email shortly.
Loading Unlocking...
Login

Join to view Study Notes and access 3M+ class-specific study document.

or
We will never post anything without your permission.
Don't have an account?
Sign Up

Join to view Study Notes 2 2 and access 3M+ class-specific study document.

or

By creating an account you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use

Already a member?