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Analysis of a Climatically Variable Production Season



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1 AEWP 2000 10 Analysis of a Climatically Variable Production Season Susan Materer and Corinne Valdivia1 December 2000 Working Papers generally have not been reviewed by anyone other than the author They are a part of the process of obtaining from readers comments and suggestions for the author to use in subsequent revisions of the paper and to inform colleagues of work in progress Working papers should not be quoted or cited as a reference without approval of the author 1 Corinne Valdivia is a Research Assistant Professor Department of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri Columbia and the Principal Investigator of the NOAA project Susan Materer is a Masters student in Agricultural Economics as the University of Missouri Columbia and is a Research Assistant for the project Send correspondence to Corinne Validivia Department of Agricultural Economics Social Science Unit University of Missouri Columbia 65211 Tel 573 882 4020 Fax 573 882 3958 and EMail valdiviac missouri edu Or contact Susan Materer at smmc9b mizzou edu 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 2 3 4 5 ABSTRACT 1 INTRODUCTION 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 3 RESEARCH PROBLEM 5 IDENTIFICATION OF DEPENDENT AND INDPENDENT VARIABLES 6 6 ANLAYSIS OF INDEPENENT VARIABLES IN EXPLAINING TOTAL INCOME 8 7 ANALYSIS OF FINAL MODEL 11 8 TECHNICAL DISCUSSION 12 9 FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 13 10 REFERENCES 14 11 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 16 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 Pearson Correlation of Coefficients of Variables 7 TABLE 2 Summary of Forward Selection Model 8 TABLE 3 Summary of Forward Stepwise Selection with Labor Unit 9 TABLE 4 R squared and C p Analysis 9 TABLE 5 Summary of Subset B Regression Analysis 10 TABLE 6 Summary of Subset A Regression Analysis 10 TABLE 7 Summary of Final Model 11 3 ABSTRACT Analysis of a small agropastoral community in Bolivia during a climatically vulnerable year provided insight into how households diversify and change productions strategies in order to secure income and food consumption Twelve independent variables



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