Population projections and estimates1. Projections - definitiona. Usesi. Basis for decision making/policyii. Basis for understanding components of change/implications of change2. Estimates - definitiona. Usesi. Basis for federal funding allocationsii. generating denominator for rates1Projection variants1. Middle2. High 3. Low4. Assume no change2Alternative methods of projection (and estimates)1. Growth rate projections2. Balancing equation (component method)3. Cohort component methoda. Use info on B, D, I, and Eb. Work with 5-year age groupsc. Project in 5-year stepsd. Separate projections by sex4. Structural models3Diagram of cohort component method4Launch-year populationProjected migrationSurvived populationChildbearing age populationSurvived birthsProjected populationMigration ratesSurvival ratesFertility rates & infant/child survival ratesLevel of projection1. Easier at the national level2. Migration is particularly problematic at the local level3. Important to incorporate external information at the local
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