6FDODU ,PSOLFDWXUHV ([SHULPHQWV DW WKH6HPDQWLFV3UDJPDWLFV ,QWHUIDFH$11$ 3$3$)5$*28D  -8/,(1 0862/,12ED,QVWLWXWH IRU 5HVHDUFK LQ &RJQLWLYH 6FLHQFH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 3HQQV\OYDQLD 3KLODGHOSKLD 3$ E'HSDUWPHQW RI 6SHHFK DQG +HDULQJ 6FLHQFHV ,QGLDQD 8QLYHUVLW\ %ORRPLQJWRQ ,1 $EVWUDFW,Q WKLV DUWLFOH ZH SUHVHQW WZR VHWV RI H[SHULPHQWV GHVLJQHG WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RIVFDODU LPSOLFDWXUHV 6FDODU LPSOLFDWXUHV DULVH LQ H[DPSOHV OLNH 6RPH SURIHVVRUV DUH IDPRXV ZKHUHWKH VSHDNHU·V XVH RI VRPH W\SLFDOO\ LQGLFDWHV WKDW VKH KDG UHDVRQV QRW WR XVH D PRUHLQIRUPDWLYH WHUP HJ DOO 6RPH SURIHVVRUV DUH IDPRXV WKHUHIRUH JLYHV ULVH WR WKH LPSOLFDWXUH WKDWQRW DOO SURIHVVRUV DUH IDPRXV 5HFHQW VWXGLHV RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SUDJPDWLFV VXJJHVW WKDWSUHVFKRRO FKLOGUHQ DUH RIWHQ LQVHQVLWLYH WR VXFK LPSOLFDWXUHV ZKHQ WKH\ LQWHUSUHW VFDODU WHUPV1RYHFN  IRU WHUPV OLNH PLJKW DQG VRPH &KLHUFKLD &UDLQ *XDVWL *XDOPLQL DQG 0HURQL IRU RU 7KLV FRQFOXVLRQ UDLVHV WZR LPSRUWDQW TXHVWLRQV D DUH DOO VFDODU WHUPV WUHDWHG LQWKH VDPH ZD\ E\ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ" DQG E GRHV WKH FKLOG·V GLIILFXOW\ UHIOHFW D JHQXLQH LQDELOLW\WR GHULYH VFDODU LPSOLFDWXUHV RU LV LW GXH WR GHPDQGV LPSRVHG E\ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO WDVN RQ DQRWKHUZLVH SUDJPDWLFDOO\ VDYY\ FKLOG" ([SHULPHQW  DGGUHVVHV WKH ILUVW TXHVWLRQ E\ WHVWLQJ DJURXS RI  \HDUROGV DQG  DGXOWV DOO QDWLYH VSHDNHUV RI *UHHN RQ WKUHH GLIIHUHQW VFDOHVPHULNLROL VRPHDOO GLRWULV WZRWKUHH DQG DU[L]RWHOLRQR VWDUWILQLVK ,Q HDFK FDVH VXEMHFWVZHUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK FRQWH[WV ZKLFK VDWLVI\ WKH WUXWK FRQGLWLRQV RI WKH VWURQJHU LH PRUHLQIRUPDWLYH WHUPV RQ HDFK VFDOH LH DOO WKUHH DQG ILQLVK EXW ZHUH GHVFULEHG XVLQJ WKH ZHDNHUWHUPV RI WKH VFDOHV LH VRPH WZR VWDUW :H IRXQG WKDW ZKLOH DGXOWV RYHUZKHOPLQJO\ UHMHFWHGWKHVH LQIHOLFLWRXV GHVFULSWLRQV FKLOGUHQ DOPRVW QHYHU GLG VR &KLOGUHQ DOVR GLIIHUHG IURPDGXOWV LQ WKDW WKHLU UHMHFWLRQ UDWH RQ WKH QXPHULFDO VFDOH ZDV UHOLDEO\ KLJKHU WKDQ RQ WKH WZRRWKHU VFDOHV ,Q RUGHU WR DGGUHVV TXHVWLRQ E ZH WUDLQHG D JURXS RI  \HDUROGV WR GHWHFWLQIHOLFLWRXV VWDWHPHQWV :H WKHQ SUHVHQWHG WKHP ZLWK PRGLILHG YHUVLRQV RI WKH VWRULHV RI([SHULPHQW  ZKLFK QRZ PRUH UHDGLO\ LQYLWHG VFDODU LQIHUHQFHV 7KHVH PDQLSXODWLRQV JDYHULVH WR VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU UHMHFWLRQ UDWHV WKDQ WKRVH REVHUYHG LQ ([SHULPHQW  2YHUDOOWKHVH ILQGLQJV LQGLFDWH WKDW FKLOGUHQ GR QRW WUHDW DOO VFDODU WHUPV DOLNH DQG PRUH LPSRUWDQWO\WKDW FKLOGUHQ·V DELOLW\ WR GHULYH VFDODU LPSOLFDWXUHV LV DIIHFWHG E\ WKHLU DZDUHQHVV RI WKH JRDORI WKH WDVN 'HYHORSPHQWDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO LPSOLFDWLRQV DV ZHOO DV WKHRUHWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQV IRU WKH VHPDQWLFV RI QXPHUDO WHUPV DUH GLVFXVVHG.H\ ZRUGV /DQJXDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ SUDJPDWLFV VHQWHQFH SURFHVVLQJ VFDODU LPSOLFDWXUHVTXDQWLILHUV QXPHUDOV *UHHN ,QWURGXFWLRQ+XPDQV DUH H[WUHPHO\ VRSKLVWLFDWHG FRPPXQLFDWRUV 3HUKDSV WKH PRVW VWULNLQJGHPRQVWUDWLRQ RI WKH VXEWOH DQG FRPSOH[ QDWXUH RI KXPDQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LV WKH IDFW WKDWVSHDNHUV RIWHQ LQWHQG WR FRQYH\ IDU PRUH WKDQ WKH ZRUGV WKH\ XWWHU HQFRGH DQG KHDUHUVPDQDJH WR JR EH\RQG ZKDW WKH VSHDNHU KDV XWWHUHG DQG UHWULHYH WKH LQWHQGHG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI WKH XWWHUDQFH ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV DOWKRXJK KXPDQ ODQJXDJH FRQVLVWV RI HVVHQWLDOO\ DUELWUDU\FRGHOLNH SDLULQJV EHWZHHQ VRXQG DQG PHDQLQJ YHUEDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQYROYHV PXFK PRUHWKDQ D VLPSOH HQFRGLQJGHFRGLQJ SURFHGXUH LW FUXFLDOO\ LQYROYHV LQIHUHQFH7KLV SDSHU IRFXVHV RQ RQH RI WKH EHVWNQRZQ W\SHV RI SUDJPDWLF LQIHUHQFH &RQVLGHU WKHIROORZLQJ H[DPSOH $ 6RPH WRS PRGHOV DUH ULFK0RVW SHRSOH ZRXOG DJUHH WKDW LQ SURGXFLQJ WKH XWWHUDQFH LQ  WKH VSHDNHU FRQYH\V WKHDVVXPSWLRQ LQ  1RW DOO WRS PRGHOV DUH ULFK1RWLFH WKDW  LV QRW HQFRGHG E\ WKH VSHDNHU·V XWWHUDQFH QRU LV LW SDUW RI ZKDW WKH VSHDNHUKDV VDLG DFFRUGLQJ WR VWDQGDUG VHPDQWLF DFFRXQWV VRPH PHDQV VRPH DQG SRVVLEO\ DOO 5DWKHU LV DQ DVVXPSWLRQ LQIHUHQWLDOO\ GHULYHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI ZKDW WKH VSHDNHU VDLG 7KH LQWXLWLRQEHKLQG WKLV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ KDV ORQJ EHHQ IDPLOLDU WR SKLORVRSKHUV VHH +RUQ ,I , VD\ WR DQ\ RQH , VDZ VRPH RI \RXU FKLOGUHQ WRGD\ KH PLJKW EH MXVWLILHG LQ LQIHUULQJWKDW , GLG QRW VHH WKHP DOO QRW EHFDXVH WKH ZRUGV PHDQ LW EXW EHFDXVH LI ,