Demographic Transition – BasicsExplanations for ChangeSome tenets of demography• Much of the world’s population growth has occurred since 1750. • Much of world’s population growth is explained by the fact that the decline in mortality has preceded, often by a substantial interval, the decline in fertility • This growth can be interpreted in terms of the demographic transition.Demographic Transition – Basics 1) Definition 2) Graphical representation 3) Stages 4) Relationship to population growth0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0175017601770178017901850186018701880189019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000CBRCDRThe Demographic Transition in FranceImplications for population growthExplanations• Disappearance of crisis mortality– Technological improvements re. storing and transporting food– Public health interventions• Fertility decline– Economic change, modes of production (classical DTT)– Cost of children – shifts in intergenerational resource flows– Fertility control within the calculus of conscious choice– Ideational change, diffusion (spread of innovation), social interaction (exchange of information and ideas, social influence on behavior)Historical variation in demographic transition 1) Within MDCs - historical transitions a. Role of development, language, culture 2) Within LDCs - modern transitions a. Role of external forces, media 3) Comparing experience of MDCs and LDCs 4) Interaction of development and networks 5) Problems with “reading history sideways”Research on demographic transition 1) The Princeton project 2) Modern studies a. KAP surveys, WFS, DHS, etc. 3) Experiments, large scale projects 4) Ethnographic researchTransition “theory” and post-transition experience 1) Stabilization at replacement fertility predicted 2) Actual experience not so consistent with theory 3) A “second” demographic transition? 4) Explanations 5) Implications and
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