AVIATION & THE ENVIRONMENTIan A. Waitz Professor and Deputy Head Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Institute of Technology © 2003 Waitz 1LECTURE OUTLINE• Overview of environmental effects of aircraft • Aircraft noise – Impacts and regulatory issues – Technology trends • Aircraft pollutant emissions – Impacts and regulatory issues – Technology and emissions trends • Summary and references© 2003 Waitz 2NoiseNone applicableCompatibility with nearbyland usesAir qualityMost serious problem currentlyMost serious problem in the futureWetlands29AIRPORT Noise 22RANKING OFENVIRONMENTAL12 Water qualityISSUES Water Quality 6 6 Air QualityCurrent and Future 16 2Compatibility with Land-use limitations 4 1 None Applicable 0 0 Wetlands 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Number of airports Most serious problem currently Most serious problem in future Source: GAO’s survey of the nation’s 50 busiest commercial service airports. © 2003 Waitz (GAO, 2000) 3CHARACTERISTICS OFNOISE AND EMISSIONS ISSUES• Noise – Local – Persistence = minutes – Well-established metrics – Impacts: annoyance, sleep disturbance, domestic animals?, endangered species?, health impacts? • Emissions – Local, regional, global – Effluents: CO2, H2O, NOx, CO, VOC’s, soot, others – Persistence = 1 day -1000 years – Drastic change in public/scientific perception and regulatory frameworks – Impacts: human health, ecosystem health© 2003 Waitz 4AVIATION ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS• “EXTERNALITIES”– A large fraction of current aviation health and welfare impacts are real costs to society but are not accounted for by the providers or users of the service “The government’s objectives for aviation are that…the polluter should pay and aviation, like other industries, should meet its external costs, including environmental costs.” (From UK Department of Transport, Aviation and the Environment, Using Economic Instruments, March 2003) © 2003 Waitz 5EXTERNAL COSTS OF AVIATIONVALUATION SOCIAL INSTITUTIONAL BASIS (industry + affected public) (regulatory policy) Impact Area (objective) Total $ $ / capita Total $ $ / capita % of Total $ addressed by regulation Noise $ 26B $ 2100 $ 2.9B $ 6000 11% (quiet environs) Air Quality $ 11B $ 140 $ 2.5B $ 30 22% (safe air) Climate Change ~$100B $ 345 $ 0.0B $ 0 0% (stable climate) TOTAL ~$137B $ 5.4B 5% • Regulatory framework currently accommodates ~ 5% potential internalization of external costs • Noise cost per capita greater than emissions aligns with public opinion and institutional attention – Most vociferous opposition to noise, but air quality becoming more of an issue (GAO 2000) >>PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ONLY<< Lukachko, 2003 © 2003 Waitz 6GROWTH IN MOBILITY PROVIDED BY U.S.AVIATION INDUSTRY (DOT Form 41 data)Fastest Growing Mode of Transportation (4-6%/yr) Revenue Passenger Miles Performed by All Airlines Operating Aircraft with >60 Seats 8E+11 7E+11 6E+11 5E+11 4E+11 3E+11 2E+11 1E+11 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year © 2003 Waitz 78© 2003 WaitzAIR TRAVEL PROJECTED TO BE FASTEST GROWINGMODE OF TRANSPORTATION (4-6%/yr)- DRIVEN BY POPULATION AND GDP GROWTH, AND AVAILABLE DAILY TRAVEL TIME -19605.5 x 1012 RPKBuses23 x 1012 RPK 54 x 1012 RPK 105 x 1012 RPK199020202050AircraftRailwaysAutomobilesFigure by MIT OCW. Adapted from: Schafer et al. (1998), GDP/cap growth rates from IPCC IS92a Scenario.MOBILITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT“ Environmental issues are likely to impose the fundamental limitation on air transportation growth in the 21st century. ” U.S. National Science and Technology Council, 199572% 28% 25% 75% Expansion Projects Delayed due to Environmental Issues Source: GAO (2000) survey of 50 busiest commercial airports. N=33 for this question, 1 airport did not respond. 28% (9 airports) with no impact projects delayed at 72% (23 airports) Expansion Projects Cancelled or Indefinitely Postponed due to Environmental Issues 25% (12 airports) with at least 1 project affected no impact at 75% (36 airports) Source: GAO (2000) survey of 50 busiest commercial airports. N=50 for this question, 2 airports with no projects planned. © 2003 Waitz 910© 2003 WaitzAIRPORTS ARE REACHING CAPACITY LIMITFigure 2: Anticipated Date for Airports to Reach CapacitySource: GAO’s survey of the nation’s 50 busiest commercial service airports.Number of airportsAlreadyat orabovecapacity1-2 years 3-4 years 5-6 years 7-9 years 10 ormoreyears Other13115287401234567891011121314Estimated time to reach capacityDOD ENCROACHMENT• External factors such as urbanization, increasing environmental restrictions, and competition with civilian demands on airspace, land, seaspace, and radio frequencies “The overall trends are adverse because the number of external inputs is increasing, and the readiness impacts are growing. Future testing and training needs will only further exacerbate these issues, as the speed and range of test articles and training scenarios increase…” (DOD Sustainable Ranges Outreach Plan, SROC) Examples: JSF basing, Oceana operations, Navy in Japan • Senior Readiness Oversight Council (SROC) action plans: – Endangered species, ordnance, frequency encroachment, the maritime sustainability, airspace restrictions, air quality, airborne noise and urban growth • House of Representatives proposal (2002): National Security Impact Statement with all Environmental Impact Statements © 2003 Waitz 11REGULATIONS: BALANCING PUBLIC GOALS• Economy and Mobility vs. National Security vs. Environment • State vs. National interests and control • Federal Noise Control Act + local noise restrictions – Commercial yes – Military no (Nat. Sec. Exemption, but NEPA EIS) • Federal Clean Air Act + State Implementation Plans – Military yes (General Conformity Rule) – Commercial “no” (Interstate Commerce & Trade exemption) • Endangered Species and Marine Mammal Protection Acts – Military “yes” (Nat. Sec. Exemption, but never used) – Commercial yes © 2003 Waitz 12GROWTH OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONReflects increasing environmental impacts and increasing valuation of the environment Adapted from: Materiel Developer’s Guide for Pollution Prevention, Army Acquisition Support Office, 1994 www.boeing.com © 2003 Waitz 13 0Cumulative number of laws10Years1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1960 1970 1980 1990