Technically Recoverable Resource Technically recoverable resource is the volume of petroleum which is recoverable using current exploration and production technology without regard to cost which is a proportion of the estimated in place resource Oil recovery factor is the percent of inplace oil resource which can be technically recovered without regard to cost The USGS Open File Report 98 34 values are used as the baseline estimates for our drilling proposal s values Our drilling proposal is for oil resource in the undeformed region of 1002 only The oil values for the undeformed region from the 1998 USGS assessment yield the following oil recovery factors Undeformed Region Oil volumes by Probability Fractiles Mean 95 50 In Place Oil MMBO 17483 9428 16880 Tech Recov Oil MMBO 6420 3403 6186 Oil Recovery Factor 36 72 36 09 36 65 5 27435 10224 37 27 These oil recovery factors are slightly less than the recovery factors for the entire 1002 area which has a mean recovery factor of 37 1 In 1998 the oil recovery factor for the undeformed region was 36 7 Changes in Technically Recoverable Resource Over Time Due To Improvements In Technology Technically recoverable resource analysis assumes that technological improvements will be made to exploration and production technology over time resulting in increased technically recoverable resource Current technological improvements include 4D time lapse seismic surveys 4C multi component seismic imaging directional and multilateral drilling logging tools for more accurate well placement thermal enhanced recovery by steam injection and in situ combustion and many forms of chemically enhanced oil recovery by polymer addition These methods add between 515 to the oil recovery factor The trend for increasing technically recoverable resource over time is an average annual increase factor Studies have been done by the National Petroleum Council NPC and DOE Energy Information Administration EIA which include data on this research From the 1999 NPC study there is an annual technically recoverable resource increase of 1 3 1 5 due to improvements in technology The Statfjord and Gullfaks oilfields in the Norwegian North Sea however have different trends for increase in oil recovery Statfjord Gullfaks Increase in Oil Recovery Factor over Time 1986 1996 2000 49 4 61 4 65 6 46 5 49 4 54 5 Increase year About 2 05 About 1 15 Sources http www mafhoum com press4 117T41 htm http www statoil com fin nr303094 nsf Attachments gullfaks pdf FILE gullfaks pdf These oilfields respond differently to improvements in technology with respect to oil recovery factor Data from all of these different trends combined by taking the average of the rates of increase yields a technically recoverable resource annual rate of increase of 1 53 per year Changes in Technically Recoverable Resource Due To Water Saturation Water flooding is one of our proposal s most important methods of enhanced oil recovery To minimize environmental damage water used for reservoir flooding must either come from the saturated water content of the reservoir or must be shipped in to the site by vehicles The water saturation percent for the entire 1002 area and the undeformed region are given in the table below Water Saturation Fractile 50 1 2 Probability Play Topset Turbidite Wedge Thomson Kemik Undeformed Franklinian Deformed Franklinian Thin Skinned Thrust Belt Ellesmerian Thrust Belt Niguanak Aurora two dome Averages Entire 1002 Undeformed Region 20 20 33 3 33 3 22 2 22 2 33 3 33 3 37 5 37 5 14 3 14 3 14 3 40 31 8 25 27 17 26 77 There is slightly less average water content in the undeformed region than there is in 1002 This fact however is already taken into account in the slightly lower oil recovery factors for the undeformed region than for the entire 1002 Reservoir flooding for enhanced oil recovery is used to a large extent in our proposal Therefore the effect of percent water saturation on our technically recoverable resource will be significantly different than for the USGS report s technically recoverable values The limited volume of available water will increase the cost of reservoir flooding But since cost is no object as much water can be shipped in as necessary Water saturation values therefore do not affect our oil recoverability factor but do affect the economically recoverable values Results Technically recoverable resource depends on improvements in E P technology over time The USGS report s recovery factors were made without regard to cost So the current technically recoverable resource is given by the USGS oil recovery factor for the undeformed region adjusted for improvements in E P over time The mean undeformed region oil recovery factor 36 72 The increase in technically recoverable resource per year 1 53 The current oil recovery factor is then 3672 1 0153 2003 1998 3962 40 The technically recoverable resources are Tech Recov Undeformed Region Oil Resource for 2003 Mean 95 50 In Place Oil MMBO 17483 9428 16880 Oil Recovery Factor 40 40 40 Tech Recov Oil MMBO 6993 3771 6752 5 27435 40 10974 There is a mean technically recoverable oil resource of 6993 million barrels of oil in the undeformed region which is an 8 increase from the 1998 assessment
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