The Confluence of Water Resources and National Security Where, why and how policy currents converge.Water Resources National SecurityTwo Perspectives:Analysis:River Basin Case StudiesJordan BasinSlide 7Nile BasinSlide 9Indus BasinTigris-Euphrates BasinAnalysis National Security-Water Resources LinkageCAUSES National Security-Water Resources Linkage(Old) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources LinkagePostel & Wolf :Slide 16Indicating Linkages Between Water Resources and National SecuritySyr Darya BasinUzbek National Security Policy Related to WaterReferences:Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Slide 24The Confluence of The Confluence of Water Resources and Water Resources and National SecurityNational SecurityWhere, why and how Where, why and how policy currents converge.policy currents converge.Daene McKinney & Steve PitmanDaene McKinney & Steve PitmanTransboundary Water ResourcesTransboundary Water ResourcesWater Resources National SecurityWater Resources National SecurityWater in the Water in the landscape (above landscape (above and below ground) and below ground) with current or with current or potential value to potential value to the community and the community and the environment. the environment. - Western Australia - Western Australia Water and Rivers CommissionWater and Rivers CommissionCondition of a Condition of a nation’s safety nation’s safety from threats, from threats, especially threats especially threats from external from external sources.sources.- McGraw Hill Online- McGraw Hill OnlineTwo Perspectives:Two Perspectives:Water Resources Water Resources professionals: professionals: When and how will When and how will national security national security affect water affect water resources?resources?National Security National Security professionals:professionals:When and how will When and how will water affect water affect national security?national security?Analysis:Analysis:Why, when & how have links developed?Why, when & how have links developed?CAUSESCAUSES Can we predict future occurrences?Can we predict future occurrences?INDICATORSINDICATORSRiver Basin Case StudiesRiver Basin Case StudiesJordanJordan•Syria, Israel, JordanSyria, Israel, JordanNileNile•Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt IndusIndus•India, PakistanIndia, PakistanTigris-EuphratesTigris-Euphrates•Turkey, Syria, IraqTurkey, Syria, IraqJordan BasinJordan BasinPost WWI – MandatesPost WWI – Mandates1948 – State of Israel1948 – State of Israel1950’s – plans1950’s – plans1960’s – conflicts1960’s – conflicts1967 – Six Day War1967 – Six Day WarPLO attacksPLO attacks1980’s threats1980’s threats1990’s treaties1990’s treaties2000’s 2nd Intifadeh2000’s 2nd Intifadehwww.glowa-jordan-river.dewww.glowa-jordan-river.deJordan BasinJordan BasinPolitically chargedPolitically chargedPopulation 10M+ Population 10M+ •double in 30 yearsdouble in 30 yearsAlready “water Already “water stressed”stressed”Boundary issuesBoundary issuesAllocation inequitiesAllocation inequitieswww.glowa-jordan-river.dewww.glowa-jordan-river.deNile BasinNile BasinInterested in 3 of 9 Interested in 3 of 9 basin countriesbasin countriesEgyptEgypt•Lowest riparianLowest riparian•Most dependentMost dependent•Most powerfulMost powerful•Big US aid recipientBig US aid recipientEthiopiaEthiopia•Contributes mostContributes most•Uses leastUses least•Poorest Poorest Sudan – in betweenSudan – in betweenwww.thewaterpage.comwww.thewaterpage.comNile BasinNile BasinColonial cash-crop Colonial cash-crop economieseconomies1929 Treaty1929 TreatyCentury Storage Century Storage SchemeScheme1959 Treaty1959 TreatyAswan High DamAswan High DamCold War politicsCold War politicsCivil warsCivil warswww.thewaterpage.comwww.thewaterpage.comIndus BasinIndus Basin1859-1915 - British 1859-1915 - British build canals for flood build canals for flood control and irrigationcontrol and irrigation1947 – Partition 1947 – Partition •India – key headwatersIndia – key headwaters•Pakistan – bulk of canals Pakistan – bulk of canals and farmlandand farmland1948 – India cuts flow, 1948 – India cuts flow, Pakistani crops fail, Pakistani crops fail, Pakistanis call for warPakistanis call for war1952-60 – World Bank 1952-60 – World Bank mediationmediationIndus Water TreatyIndus Water Treatyearthtrends.wri.orgearthtrends.wri.orgwww.iucn.orgwww.iucn.orgTigris-Euphrates BasinTigris-Euphrates BasinEarliest water conflictsEarliest water conflictsTurkeyTurkey•Source of both riversSource of both rivers•GAP - $30B projectGAP - $30B projectSyria very dependent Syria very dependent on Euphrateson EuphratesIraq totally dependent Iraq totally dependent on both riverson both rivers1975 – Crisis between 1975 – Crisis between Iraq and SyriaIraq and Syria1990 – Ataturk Dam1990 – Ataturk Damearthtrends.wri.orgearthtrends.wri.orgAnalysisAnalysisNational Security-Water Resources LinkageNational Security-Water Resources LinkageCommon Factors:Common Factors:Arid areas w/ irrigated agricultureArid areas w/ irrigated agriculturePower imbalance (economic/military)Power imbalance (economic/military)Presence of non-water disputesPresence of non-water disputesNon-joint developmentNon-joint developmentOutside influences*Outside influences*CAUSESCAUSESNational Security-Water Resources LinkageNational Security-Water Resources LinkageJordan BasinJordan Basin•Enmity exists before water disputesEnmity exists before water disputes•One state alters status by occupying territoryOne state alters status by occupying territoryNile BasinNile Basin•Lower riparian completely dependentLower riparian completely dependent•Powerful country publicly announces linkPowerful country publicly announces linkIndus BasinIndus Basin•Water policy of one state affects interest of Water policy of one state affects interest of lower riparianlower riparianTigris-Euphrates Tigris-Euphrates •Actions fuel unease over future possibilitiesActions fuel unease over future possibilities(Old) INDICATORS(Old) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources LinkageNational Security-Water Resources LinkageUnilateral development of Unilateral development of international river international river –Postel & Wolf–Postel &