Department of Economics Fall 2009University of California Economics 100BBerkeley Professor OlneyHandout for September 1, 2009: Today's EconomyData are taken from 2009 Economic Report of the President (ER, Table ...; accessed at http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/download.html), 2009 Statistical Abstract (SA, Table #..; accessed athttp://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab2006_2009.html), and from government web sites www.bls.gov, www.bea.gov, and www.federalreserve.gov.1. Real GDP Growth Rate (ER, Table B4 & bea.gov)1960s 4.4 % 2000-04 2.4% 2008 0.4%1970s 3.3 % 2005 2.9 % 2009:I -6.4%1980s 3.1 % 2006 2.7 % 2009:II -1.0%1990s 3.1 % 2007 2.1 %2. Unemployment (ER, Table B42 & bls.gov)1970s 6.2 % 2005 5.1 % Jan-Jul 2009 8.8 %1980s 7.3 % 2006 4.6 % Jul 2009 9.4 %1990s 5.8% 2007 4.6 %2000-04 5.2% 2008 5.8 %3. Inflation & Deflation (ER, Table B63 & bls.gov)CPI (Dec to Dec)CPI (Dec to Dec)1970s 7.1 % 2006 3.2 %1980s 5.0 % 2007 2.8 %1990s 3.0 % 2008 3.8 %2000-04 2.6 % 2009 -1.9 % (July - July)2005 3.4 % 4. Federal Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus (+) (ER, Table B80; cbo.gov; Year ends Sept 30)2000 + $236 billion 2004 – $413 billion 2008 – $459 billion2001 + $128 billion 2005 – $318 billion 2009est– $1,667 billion2002 – $158 billion 2006 – $248 billion 2010est– $1,139 billion2003 – $378 billion 2007 – $162 billion 2011est– $693 billionDebt $11.7 trillion5. Nominal U.S. Treasury Interest Rates (ER, Table B73 & federalreserve.gov)3-mo 10-yr 3-mo 10-yr1980s 8.85 % 10.59 % 2006 4.73 % 4.80 %1990s 4.88 % 6.67 % 2007 4.36 % 4.63 %2000-04 2.66 % 4.79 % 2008 1.37 % 3.66 %2005 3.16 % 4.29 % Jul 2009 0.18 % 3.56 % 6. Personal Saving Rates (ER, Table B30 & bea.gov)1960s 8.3 % 2000-04 2.1 % 2008 1.8 %1970s 9.6 % 2005 0.4 % 2009 Jul 4.2 %1980s 9.1 % 2006 0.7 %1990s 5.2 % 2007 0.6 %7. Labor Productivity Growth Rate (ER, Table B50 & bls.gov)all nonfarmbusinessmanufacturingonlyall nonfarmbusinessmanufacturingonly1960s 2.8 % 2.8 % 2005 1.7 % 4.8 %1970s 1.9 % 2.9 % 2006 0.9 % 1.0 %1980s 1.0 % 2.8 % 2007 1.8 % 3.2 %1990s 1.8 % 3.7 % 2008 1.8 % 0.8 %2000-04 3.5 % 4.2 % 2009:II 1.8 % -1.3 %8. Income Inequality (share of total income received by top 20 % of families, and by bottom 20 % and income limit (2007 dollars) of top and bottom 20%, census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc)top 20% bottom 20%ShareIncome Above Share Income Below2007 47.3 % $112,638 4.1 % $27,864 2000 47.7 % $110,017 4.3 % $28,8971990 44.3 % $94,564 4.6 % $25,9071980 41.1 % $83,372 5.3 % $24,9169. Real Median Family Income (2007 $) (census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc)2007 $61,355. (+0.06% annually since 2000)2000 $61,083. (+1.2 % annually since 1990)1990 $54,369. (+0.8 % annually since 1980)1980 $50,366. (+0.7 % annually since 1970)1970 $47,019. (+3.2 % annually since 1960)10. Poverty Rates (ER, Table B33)Female-headed familiesAll families People in poverty2007 28.3 % (4.1 million) 9.8 % (7.6 million) 12.5 % (37.3 million)2000 26.4 % (3.5 million) 9.2 % (6.8 million) 11.3 % (31.6 million)1990 33.4 % (3.8 million) 10.7 % (7.1 million) 13.5 % (33.8 million)1979 30.4 % (2.6 million) 9.2 % (5.5 million) 11.7 % (26.3 million)Total U.S. population in 2009 307 million.Department of Economics Fall 2009University of California, Berkeley Professor OlneyToday’s Economy 9/1/2009 Page 2Fig 1: Real GDP & trend lines, 1900-2008 Fig. 2: Unemployment, Inflation 1960-2009 Fig 3: Federal gov’t deficits, 1971-2012(est)Fig 4: Nominal Interest Rates, 1965-2009Fig 5: Personal Saving Rate, 1950-2009Fig 6: Labor Productivity Growth Rate, 1960-2006Fig 7: Use of Home Equity (as % of disposable income),1991-2008Fig 8B: Fig 8A resized for comparisonwith Figure 7.Fig 8A: Use of Credit Cards (as % ofdisposable income), 1980-2009Fig 9: Distribution of Aggregate Spending Among C, I, andG,
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