Information Systems Decision Support and Artificial IntelligenceChapter OverviewFour phases of decision makingTypes of DecisionsDecision Support Systems (DSS)DSS ComponentsSlide 7DSS CapabilitiesDSS ProcessDSS ExamplesCollaboration SystemsCollaboration System BenefitsGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Artificial Intelligence SystemsCommercial AI SystemsIBM WatsonExpert SystemsExpert Systems ProcessExpert Systems ComponentsInference EngineExpert Systems PeopleSlide 22Artificial Neural Network (ANN)Neural NetworksSlide 25Genetic AlgorithmsIntelligent Agents (IA)Slide 28Information SystemsDecision Support andArtificial IntelligenceChapter 4Chapter OverviewTypes of DecisionsDecision Support–Decision Support Systems (DSS)–Collaboration Systems–Geographic Information Systems (GIS)Artificial Intelligence (AI)–Expert Systems–Neural Networks–Genetic Algorithms–Intelligent AgentsFour phases of decision makingTypes of DecisionsStructuredSemi-structuredUnstructuredRecurring vs. ad-hocDecision Support Systems(DSS)Highly flexible and interactive IT system that is designed to support unstructured and semi-structured decision making.DSS ComponentsModel management - consists of both the DSS models and the DSS model management system.Data management - performs the function of storing and maintaining the information that you want your DSS to use. User interface management - allows you to communicate with the DSS.DSS ComponentsSensitivity Analysis–the study of the effect that changes in one or more parts of a model have on other parts of the modelWhat-if Analysis–checks the impact of a change in the assumptions or other input data on the proposed solutionGoal-seeking Analysis–find the value of the inputs necessary to achieve a desired level of outputDSS CapabilitiesDSS ProcessGeneral Accident Insurance: Customer buying patterns and fraud detectionBank of America: Customer profilesFrito-Lay, Inc.: Price, advertising, and promotion selectionBurlington Coat Factory:Store location and inventory mixKeycorp: Targeting direct mail marketing customersNational Gypsum: Corporate planning & forecastingSouthern Railway: Train dispatching and routingTexas Oil & Gas: Evaluation of potential drilling sitesUnited Airlines: Flight scheduling, passenger demand forecastingDSS ExamplesInteractive computer-based system that facilitates the solution of semi structured and unstructured problems by a group of decision makers.Tools include - Electronic questionnaires, Electronic brainstorming tools, Idea organizers, Questionnaire toolsCollaboration SystemsImproved preplanningIncreased participationOpen, collaborative meeting atmosphereCriticism-free idea generationEvaluation objectivityIdea organization and evaluationSetting priorities and making decisionsDocumentation of meetingsAccess to external informationCollaboration System BenefitsComputer system with software that can analyze and display data using digitized maps. Enables display and analysis of spatial information.Examples – Location analysis, law enforcement, identifying efficient delivery routesGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Artificial Intelligence SystemsArtificial Intelligence (AI)–Branch of computer science that deals with ways of representing knowledge, using symbols rather than numbers, and heuristics, or rules of thumb, rather than algorithms for processing information–Objectives:Make machines smarterUnderstand what intelligence isMake machines more usefulCommercial AI SystemsExpert systems (ESs)Neural NetworksGenetic AlgorithmsIntelligent AgentsNatural language technologySpeech (voice) understandingComputer vision and scene recognitionIntelligent computer-aided instructionHandwriting recognizersIBM Watson90 IBM POWER 750 Servers on 10 racks–Each server has 4 processors–Each processor has 8 cores (2880 total cores)16 Terabytes of RAM and 4 Terabytes of Clustered StorageA single CPU machine would take 2 hours to answer a single questionExpert SystemsAI based Information System that applies reasoning capabilities to solve very specific problems. These systems utilize expert knowledge and can replace an expert in the decision making process.Good for diagnostic (what’s wrong?) and prescriptive (what to do?) problemsExpert Systems ProcessExpert Systems ComponentsKnowledge baseKnowledge acquisitionInference engineUser interfaceExplanation moduleInference EngineExpert Systems PeopleDomain expert - provides the domain expertise in the form of problem-solving strategies. Knowledge engineer – IT specialist who formulates the domain expertise into an expert system. Knowledge worker or user - that’s you.Expert SystemsAn expert system can:–Reduce errors–Improve customer service–Reduce costsAn expert system can’t:–Use common sense–Automate all processesArtificial Neural Network (ANN)Emulates a biological neural networkReceives information from other neurons or from external sources, transform the information, and pass it on to other neurons or as external outputsUseful for pattern recognition, learning, and the interpretation of incomplete inputsNeural NetworksSelf-organizing neural network - finds patterns and relationships in vast amounts of data by itselfBack-propagation neural network - a neural network trained by someoneNeural NetworksFigure 10-15Genetic AlgorithmsAI based system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest process to generate increasingly better solutions to a problem.Three genetic concepts:–Selection - survival of the fittest. –Crossover - combining portions of good outcomes in the hope of creating an even better outcome.–Mutation - randomly trying combinations and evaluating the success (or failure) of the outcome.Intelligent Agents (IA)Software that assists you, or acts on your behalf, in performing repetitive computer-related tasks.Four types of intelligent agents include:–Buyer agents or shopping bots–User or personal agents–Monitoring-and-surveillance or predictive agents–Data-mining agentsIntelligent Agents (IA)Autonomy - act without your telling them every step to take. Adaptivity - discovering, learning, and taking action independently. Sociability - conferring with other