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Development of System Safety Performance Measures in Support of GAIN

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NEXTORDevelopment ofSystem SafetyPerformance Measuresin Support of GAINPhase 1 FindingsGeoffrey D. GoslingNational Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations ResearchUniversity of California at BerkeleyNEXTORPresentation OutlineQBackground to ProjectQPhase 1 TasksQRelated ProgramsQTools and TechniquesQConcept DefinitionQRecommendationsNEXTORBackground to ProjectQGlobal Analysis and Information Network• Infrastructure for sharing aviation safetyinformation• Analytical techniques to identify existing andemerging safety problemsQAirline Flight Operations Quality Assuranceprograms• Analysis of flight data recorder informationNEXTORBackground to Project (cont.)QAir traffic control system generates a largeamount of detailed operational data• Generally only preserved for 15 days• Typically not analyzed unless an accident orincident occurs• Lack of accepted procedures to measure thesafety performance of the systemNEXTORBackground to Project (cont.)QRecognition of the need for measures ofaviation system safety performance• Monitor progress toward goal of 80 percentreduction in fatal accident rate• Determining effectiveness of operational changes• Timely identification of incipient problems fromnew technology, new procedures, or trafficgrowthNEXTORPhase 1 TasksQReview current programs for aviation systemmonitoring and modelingQReview current procedures to archive andanalyze radar dataQPrepare concept paper on use of availabledata sources to develop system safetyperformance measuresNEXTORRelated ProgramsQAirline Flight Operations Quality Assurance(FOQA) programsQNASA/FAA Aviation Performance MeasurementProgram (APMS)QFAA Airport Movement Area Safety System(AMASS)QNASA Surface Movement Advisor (SMA)QFAA/NASA Performance Data Analysis andReporting System (PDARS)NEXTORIndustry DiscussionsQFAA• AAT, ATO, ATA, AFS, AND, AOS,ASC, ASY, AAR, ACTQNASA Ames Research Center• SMA program• ASRS, APMSQAirline industry• ATA• American AirlinesQBoeingNEXTORTools and TechniquesQDigital Flight Data Analysis Tools• Commercial software (GRAF, FLIDRAS)• Canadian Transportation Safety Board (RAPS)• Next generation (APMS)NEXTORTools and Techniques (cont.)QRadar Data Analysis Tools• DART• SATORI• GRADE• Flight Track Analysis System (Leigh Fisher)QRisk Analysis Models• RASRAMNEXTORConcept DefinitionQEvolutionary process• Need to balance effort against payoffQIdentify potential safety performance measuresQDefine initial proof-of-concept studiesQAssess resources required to implementproposed proof-of-concept studiesNEXTORPotential Safety PerformanceMeasuresQPrecursor situations to controller and flightcrew errors• Analysis of OE, PDS and ASRS incident reportsQController workload• Delayed handoffs• Number of aircraft in sector• Extent of aircraft maneuveringNEXTORPotential Safety PerformanceMeasures (cont.)QDeviations from normal operation• Unstabilized approaches• TCAS alertsQRunway conflictsNEXTORProof of Concept StudiesQObtain operational experience with real timedata analysis and application• Well defined focus• Develop appropriate analysis tools• Address controller workforce concernsQEngage operational personnel in the processQAssess usefulness of alternative measures• Complement higher-level performance measures• Identification of response strategiesNEXTORRecommendationsQImplement initial proof of concept studies• Leverage off FAA/NASA development of PDARSQTwo proposed studies• Airspace operations• Surface operationsQRequired level of effort• 1- 2 person-years per studyNEXTORAirspace Operations StudyQSelected TRACON facilityQAnalyze radar track and system message dataQIntegrate with TCAS resolution advisoriesQIdentify situations that depart from normaloperationsNEXTORSurface Operations StudyQStudy comparative utility of existing datasourcesQDevelop algorithms for extracting groundtrack dataQExplore usefulness for safety analysisQIntegrate with analysis of PDS surfaceincident


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