Family Demography 1) What is family demography or demography of families? 2) Nuptiality a. Marriage, Divorce, Cohabitation (?) 3) Family structure, living arrangements (& changes therein)AMERICAN FAMILIES:1900 UNTIL TODAY• Increase in premarital sex and divorce, delayed marriage• Drop in birth rate• New, rebellious youth culture• Growing economic independence of women• Shift in marriage from economic partnership to companionship and emotional satisfaction• Increase in privacy among family members– Rise of individualism beginning– Birthrate decline– Adult life expectancy increased – More apartments were built for independent livingUNIQUE FAMILY ERAS:THE GREAT DEPRESSION• Delays in marriage & childlessness • 1 in 5 never had children (1 in 10 norm)– Divorce rate fell because people could not afford it.WORLD WAR II• People marry and reproduce as soon as economic circumstances permit. (Norman Ryder)Unique Family Eras: Post War Baby Boom• Early Marriage– Typical age at first marriage: 20 for women and 23 for men• Fertility Increase– Baby Boom: Total Fertility Rate reached a high of 3.6 Due to • Earlier Age of Childbearing, • Make-up Fertility of Depression and WW II generations• More Children, higher birth orderTotal Fertility Rates1234567818001820184018601880190019201940196019801997The second demographic transition: definition• Below replacement fertility (at least in Europe)• Package of associated family behaviors• Debate• Posited explanations– Changes in economic circumstances – esp. women– Value change – individuation, self-fulfillmentThe Second Demographic Transition• Phase I. (Beginning in the 1960’s)– Upward Divorce Trend Accelerated– Fertility Decline– Delay of Marriage (Foregone?)• Phase II (1970-1985)– Premarital Cohabitation– Non marital Childbearing• Phase III (mid 1980s and beyond)?– Divorce Plateau? – Post 30 Fertility Recuperation (in some countries)?Source: Cherlin (1992, Figure 1-6)Figure 2.1Percentage never married among men and women aged 20 to 24AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGETrends in Fertility RatesTotal Fertility Rates1234567818001820184018601880190019201940196019801997The Second Demographic Transition• Phase I. (Beginning in the 1960’s)– Upward Divorce Trend Accelerated– Fertility Decline– Delay of Marriage (Foregone?)• Phase II (1970-1985)– Premarital Cohabitation– Non marital Childbearing• Phase III (mid 1980s and beyond)?– Divorce Plateau? – Post 30 Fertility Recuperation (in some countries)?PERCENT POPULATION 20-29 NEVER MARRIED, BY SEX AND RACE01020304050607080White Men WhiteWomenBlack Men BlackWomen197019801990Source: DHHS (1995, Figure III-6)11324146560204060801001965-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94Year of MarriagePercentPremarital Cohabitation – TrendsProportion of newlyweds who cohabited prior to marriageThe Second Demographic Transition• Phase I. (Beginning in the 1960’s)– Upward Divorce Trend Accelerated– Fertility Decline– Delay of Marriage (Foregone?)• Phase II (1970-1985)– Premarital Cohabitation– Non marital Childbearing• Phase III (mid 1980s and beyond)?– Divorce Plateau? – Post 30 Fertility Recuperation (in some countries)?Divorce Rate, Per 1,000 Married Women 15+05101520251940194319461949195219551958196119641967197019731976197919821985198819911994Source: Cherlin (1992, Figure 1-6)Cross-national Comparisons of DivorcePercent of Marriages Ending in Divorce01020304050601965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995PercentUS Canada Sw eden Hungary ItalyOTHER MAJOR CHANGES IN THE U.S. FAMILY OVER THE PAST 40 (+) YEARS• More sex outside of marriage• More remarriage/stepfamiliesThe Second Demographic Transition• Changes in family in US generally not unique – Increases in marital disruption, cohabitation, age at marriage, and nonmarital childbearing are widely shared across industrialized societies. • US distinct among industrialized societies– Highest divorce rates. – Highest share of single (non cohabiting) mothers with children• 50% of all births are non marital in Sweden, Denmark, and Iceland, but most are in cohabiting unions. U.S. has higher percent of births outside unions.• US’s higher divorce rate, and lower rates of cohabitationPROPORTION OF ALL BIRTHS THAT ARE NONMARITAL, 1960-200001020304050607080901001960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Percent of BirthsIcelandSwedenUSAAustriaNorwayUKHungaryItalySpainJapanExplanations of the Second Demographic Transition:• Continuation of Long Term Secular Trends Going On for Over a Century in the West• Anchored in Individuating and Atomizing Forces– Changes in culture– Industrialization and market economy• Other Structural Forces• Potential Feedback LoopsChanges in Culture Behind the Second Demographic Transition• Rising Individualism: Legitimacy of “self-interest”as criteria for decision-making• Consumerism: Increasing material aspirations• Weakening of normative imperatives governing family life• Secularization of culture and family life• Less moral stigma• Women’s movement •The sexual revolutionPERCENT DISAGREEING WITH MEASURES OF FAMILY ATTITUDES0102030405060708090Men makedecisionsParents staytogetherAll couplesparents19621985Source: Thornton (1989, Tables 1, 3, 4)Other Structural Changes Behind the Second Demographic Transition• Education Trends• Technological innovation in birth control• Political• Legalization of Abortion (1973)• Divorce LawsEconomic Changes Behind the Second Demographic Transition• Decline in family functions with Industrialization• Women’s economic independence• Employment and wages• Delay marriage and fertility to establish careers• Welfare• Men’s deteriorating economic prospects• Major economic restructuring. Loss of manufacturing jobs in urban centers. •High unemployment rates (men over 20, Jan. 2004): whites=4.5%; blacks=9.6%• Men’s declining wagesParticipation in the Labor Force by Married