Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Regional Downscaling Products Applied to Statistical HAB ModelsSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Application of Regional Downscaling to HAB ForecastingClarissa AndersonUniversity of South Carolina & UC Santa CruzFifth US HAB Symposium 2009ChlorophyllDomoic AcidSanta Barbara ChannelChes. BayMark Brzezinski, UCSBDave Siegel, UCSBLibe Washburn, UCSBRaphe Kudela, UCSCRaghu Murtugudde, UMDChristopher Brown, NESDISMatthew Sapiano, NOAAAnne Thessen, MBLPeter Tango, USGSWen Long, UMD-HPLBala Mathakumali, UMDJohn Strack, UMDSBC &Monterey BayRaphe KudelaJenny Lane, UCSCYi Chao, NASA JPLC. Benitez-Nelson, USCEmily Sekula-Wood,USCDave Siegel, UCSBGregg Langlois, CDHSCurtis Deutsch, UCLATrainer et al 2000, Hickey and Banas 2003, in Kudela 2005DA EVENTS ARE A RECURRING STRESSON THE COASTAL CALIFORNIA ECOSYSTEM29,000 ng/L20079 Sep 2005 12 Sep 2005ADVECTION OF TOXIC BLOOM FROM PT. CONCEPTIONINTO SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 mg m-3Anderson et al. , Harmful Algae (2009)REGIONAL DOWNSCALING and REMOTE SENSINGMODIS-Aqua 1km Chl, Rrs(λ)(SBC ROMS nowcasts from Yi Chao)Statistical HAB ModelsToxic Bloom Nowcasts/HindcastsProb. Of Bloom0 50 100% SalinitySSTOcean ColorROMSThessen and Stoecker, 2008Toxic Pseudo-nitzschia Events in the Chesapeake BayParticulate DA Cellular DARegional Downscaling Products Applied to Statistical HAB ModelsStatistical HAB ModelUse real-time and forecast data acquired and derived from regional forecasts & satellite data to drive multi-variate empirical habitat models that predict the probability of blooms caused by the target HAB species V#1V#2HAB Prediction(slide courtesy of Chris Brown)39.539.038.538.037.537.0Latitude (º N)77.577.076.5 76.0 75.575.0Longitude (º W)Data fromMD DNR & EPA CBP Statistical ModelLogistic Regression (GLM) Approach to Predict Pseudo-nitzschiaBlooms/NonBloomsSignificant Predictors- Phosphate+ Salinity- Temperature+ DOC- Silicic Acid- Month- N:P- Discharge (no lag)Pseudo-nitzschiaspp. Abundance(1985-2007, n > 6,000)(Bloom Thresh = 105cells/L)Heidke Skill ScoreProbabilityof DetectionFalse Alarm RatioProb. Threshold ValueProportion0.760.69Prob. = 10%0.30Probabilityof False Detection 0.10OPTIMIZATION of the PROBABILITY THRESHOLD for DETERMINING “BLOOM" FORECASTHindcasts of Pseudo-nitzschia Blooms1990-2007Probability of BloomAnderson et al, in reviewSpatial interpolationof physical& chemical observationson ROMS gridGLMNext step: FORECASTINGChes-ROMS Temp & Sal fields + nutrient fields from a coupled Ecosystem ModelSanta Barbara Channel-121 -120.8 -120.6 -120.4 -120.2 -120 -119.8 -119.6 -119.4 -119.2 -11933.83434.234.434.634.8Longitude (°W)Latitude (°N)San MiguelSanta RosaSanta CruzAnacapa1234567Plumes and Blooms CruisesMONTHLY SAMPLING:Hydrographic and Optical PropertiesPseudo-nitzschia spp. AbundanceDomoic Acid Concentration(surface)Significant PredictorsFor Full ModelsSignificant PredictorsFor Remote-SensingModelsP-n spp.Abundance-Rrs(412/555) 75% skill-Silicate:Nitrate ratio n = 75-Rrs(555)-ap(490)-Rrs(510/555)-Rrs(412/555) 63% skill-Rrs(555) n = 89+Rrs(510)-Chlorophyll (level 2)-Rrs(510/555)ParticulateDomoic Acid-Rrs(510/555) 58% skill-Silicate:Phosphate n = 80-Temperature+Salinity-Rrs(510/555) 47% skill-Temperature n = 86+Rrs(490/555)-Day of Year+SalinityCellular Domoic Acid-Temperature 58% skill+ag(412) n = 75+Salinity-Rrs(510/555)-ap(510)-Temperature 46% skill-Rrs(412) n = 72+Salinity-Rrs(510/555)-Rrs(510)Creating Hindcasts of DA Events in the SBCMODIS-Aqua Chl, Rrs(λ)JPL-ROMS available April 2007 - present Statistical HAB ModelsToxic Bloom Nowcasts/HindcastsProb. Of Bloom0 50 100% Validate!SalinitySSTOcean ColorROMSPredicted Pseudo-nitzschia spp. Abund.cells/L1.0 x 10605.0 x 105(subset from April 2007- present and smoothed with DINEOF)May – Aug 2008Predicted Particulate Domoic Acid Conc. ng/L2,00005001,000May – Aug 2008Bloom levels @ 4 stationsElevated levels @ 3 stationsModeled P-n Abund.Plumes and Blooms Transect, UCSBBenitez-Nelson NSF Project, USCMarch 18, 2009≥105cells/L≥ 104cells/L0-103cells/LBloomThreshMarch 20, 2009Oversaturatedwrt P-n Abund.Measured P-n AbundMarch 20, 2009Measured Particulate DAPlumes and Blooms Transect, UCSBBenitez-Nelson Project, USC(DA data: Emily Sekula-Wood)Modeled Part. DA March 18, 2009800-1000+ ng/L300-800 ng/L0-300 ng/LLow particulate DA everywhereLow levels at 4 stationsElevated-High levels at 3 stnsChlorophyllMarch 20March 20, 2009Measured Particulate DAPersistentCyclonic Eddy~ 4 days priorcould helpexplain elevatedparticulate DA in mid-ChannelMeasured Dissolved DA!Modeled Cellular DAMarch 18, 2009800-1000+ ng/L300-800 ng/L0-300 ng/LMarch 20, 2009MODIS-Aqua Chl, Rrs(λ)SBC ROMS forecastsProb. Of Bloom0 50 100% Validation &Skill Assessmentof Predictions!ECOSYSTEM MODELNested w/in ROMS:Nutrient Forecasts!!Next Steps….Improve HAB ModelsIncorporate a Moving Average ofSatellite data (w/DINEOF) for creating nowcastsTHANK YOUSBC-LTER (NSF)UCSB Plumes & Blooms (NASA)NASA ESS Graduate FellowshipNRC Postdoctoral FellowshipNOAA MERHAB Program/Cal PRe-EMPTNSF Chemical OceanographyChlorophyllParticulate DA ng L-1Hindcast for May 27, 2008CODAR Surf CurrentsMay 27May 29Measured Cellular DAModeled Cellular DAMarch 18, 2009≥ 70 pg/cell30 – 70 pg/cell0 – 30 pg/cellMarch 20, 2009Measured Particulate DAModeled Particulate DAApril 16, 2009800-1000+ ng/L300-800 ng/L0-300 ng/LApril 21, 2009April 25, 2009Measured Pseudo-nitzschia Abund.Modeled P-n Abund.April 16, 2009BloomThresh≥105cells/L≥ 104cells/L0-103cells/LApril 21, 2009Measured Cellular DAModeled Cellular DAApril 16, 2009April 25, 2009April 21, 2009≥ 70 pg/cell30 – 70 pg/cell0 – 30