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UVM PA 395 - Global warming

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Nicole Rowand Instructor Flomenhoft PA 395 Summer 2003 0 The debate on global warming has been ongoing for decades It was in the 1970 s that the field of climatology grew into a science of its own out from the broad realm of the atmospheric sciences Since then every relatively hot summer or cold winter would trigger the headlines to capture the question of Is human consumption driving the climate to an irreversible doom If one followed the headlines through the 1980 s and 1990 s you might find a headline in every year on the topic of global warming To this day however almost equal criticism has been found for the current arguments and effective action has yet to be taken to stop the climate from changing Background Facts Global warming refers to an increase in concentration of greenhouse gases on the Earth s surface causing a global climate change It is often referred to as the greenhouse effect because warming of the atmosphere is similar to how heat is trapped within the glass of a greenhouse In terms of global warming the greenhouse effect refers to the trapping of greenhouse gases in the Earth s atmosphere As the sun emits energy into the Earth s atmosphere some energy rays are absorbed while others are reflected off the Earth s surface These reflected rays could go back into space or they could be trapped in the atmosphere through interaction with greenhouse gases thus warming the atmosphere Some greenhouse gases are a normal component of the Earth s atmosphere and include carbon dioxide methane water vapor nitrous oxide and ozone Since the Industrial Revolution humans have been producing more and more of these naturally occurring greenhouse gases while also introducing new ones such as CFC s a halocarbon For example carbon dioxide is produced when burning solid waste fossil fuels or wood Nitrous oxide can also be emitted during combustion of solid waste and 1 fossil fuels Methane can be released during the production of coal natural gas or oil or in the decomposition of organic waste in landfills CFC s come from post industrial era inventions like aerosols and refrigeration http www EPA gov Human produced carbon dioxide is blamed for the majority contribution to an increase in greenhouse gases Various data show that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth s atmosphere has been steadily increasing in the past 250 years Right around the time of the Industrial Revolution the growth rate jumped in carbon dioxide production as humans burned more fossil fuels population grew and deforestation occurred Balling 1992 One theory goes that if humans keep up current production levels of greenhouse gases while nature stays constant the world will see an enhanced greenhouse effect causing higher temperatures A chain reaction is predicted as the Earth adjusts to the higher climate causing the melting of polar ice caps a rise in sea levels longer and more frequent droughts powerful hurricanes and agricultural disasters This apocalyptic view is tied in with the fact that these changes are rapid and irreversible because of the time it would take the oceans to cool back down The other side of the global warming debate believes that if humans keep up current production levels of greenhouse gases the Earth will do something that we cannot accurately predict that maybe the increase in greenhouse gases will not cause a disaster Increased emissions are seen as a relatively small problem by these theorists and the economic costs of changing production levels far outweigh the probability for disaster In other words the effort would be greater than the gain These theorists tend to argue that the science is incomplete and not yet capable of accurate predictions for policy making 2 Still another theory of smaller participation denies the increase in temperature They will often argue that global cooling occurred in the 1970 s and warmer temperatures today are merely normal fluctuations on the grand scale of the Earth s climate Policy 1992 to Present Climate change became a global concern in the early 1990 s The Rio Earth Summit brought the world together in a round of talks on climate change policy in 1992 The general consensus was that global warming was a problem that must be dealt with and human influence on greenhouse gas concentration is the variable in the equation worth combating Arranged by the United Nations the goal of the conference was to bring greenhouse gas emissions down to 1990 levels The reductions would be voluntary and would be fully attained by 2000 The Rio Treaty was signed by the 162 participating nations including the United States Although emissions continued to rise through the 1990 s a success of the conference was the implementation of the Conference of the Parties COP whose mission was to follow up on the actions lined up at Rio de Janeiro To help guide the politics the United Nations formed a team of scientists the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC They published scientific data and opinions which had great influence on the policy making Http unfccc int The first follow up to Rio COP 1 occurred in 1995 in Berlin Here it was discussed that the Rio Treaty was too vague in its policy and targets This conference then produced the Berlin Mandate that called for a two year review of the specific protocol of developed nations to reduce emissions The list of nations is referred to as Annex I Http unfccc int 3 COP 2 was held one year later in Geneva The IPCC had come out with their Second Assessment Report and this was reviewed The Berlin Mandate was revisited and tweaked with a new declaration saying that developed nations would have legally binding targets for greenhouse gas emissions Http unfccc int The Kyoto Protocol or COP 3 is the most formal and the most publicized of the conferences The agreement made in 1997 in Kyoto Japan included strict emission reductions for 39 industrialized nations to occur between 2008 2012 In most cases the country s average emissions were targeted to be at or below 1990 levels The agreement was meant to give countries some flexibility and allowed the creation of carbon dioxide sinks to negate the emissions For example planting trees was a way to consume some of the carbon dioxide that was emitted and could be subtracted from the country s emissions Http unfccc int The following climate change conferences met about every year to check progress and negotiate details of the agreements In 1998 COP 4 met in Buenos Aires to work


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