C.GordonBelEncoreComputerCorporationMarketpressureshaveforcedmarginalcomputerfirmsoutofbusiness.Lookingtocompatibles,warycustomersarehelpingcreatedefactostandards.Withtoday'smultitiered,over-Wlappingsetofprogrammablecomputerclasses,whereandhowcomputingcanbedoneandhowmuchitwillcostcanvarycon-siderably.Computingcostscanbeanywherefrom$100to$10million(Figure1).Inaddition,computingdevicescanincludeelectronictypewriterswithbuilt-incommunica-tioncapability,furtherincreasingthechoicestobemadeandthecomplex-ityoftheinformationprocessingmarket.Whatishappeningtominiandmainframecompaniesasthemicrocontinuestopervadetheindustry?Onethingisthatseveraltraditionalmainframesuppliers,Burroughs,Univac,NCR,CDC,andHoneywell(orBUNCH,forbrevity'ssake),areexperiencingadecliningmarketshareasmainframecustomersselectIBM-compatiblehardwareasastan-dardandturntootherformsofcom-puting.Fujitsu,Hitachi,Mitsubishi,andNECsupplycommoditymain-frames,whicharedistributedthroughAmdahl,National,Univac,andHoneywell.Themicroprocessor-basedsystemsarethenewestalternativefordistrib-utedcomputation.Newcompaniesareformingtodevelopthesepro-ducts;BurroughsandNCRhavedis-tributionagreementswithnewmicroprocessorsupplierssuchasConvergentTechnology.Asmicro-processortechnologycontinuestobesubstitutedforthatoftraditionalminicomputers,thesesuppliersfindthemselvesinasituationsimilartoBUNCH'sdilemma.Forexample,SELandPrime,minicomputermanufacturers,havemarketing/distributionagreementswithCon-vergentTechnology,butminicom-paniesmustcompetewithsystemsbuiltfromhigh-performance,commodity,oriented,32-bitMOS-basedmicroprocessors-processorsthatprovidethesameperformanceasthetraditionalTTL-basedpro-cessorsatasmallfractionofthecost.Inshort,theforecastcouldbegloomyforminicompanies.Justasthemainframecompanieswereun-abletorespondtothemini,theminicompanieswillhavedifficultymov-ingtomeetthemicrochallengeTable1.Minicomputertechnologycir-ca1970.BASICCOMPONENTINDUSTRIESMINICOMPUTERSYSTEMCOMPANIESPowerSuppliesOptionalPackagingEssentialCoreMemoryOptionalSemiconductorsCPUandMemories(MSI)DisksandTapesPeripheralControllersTerminalsOperatingSystemsLanguagesApplicationsSystemIntegration0018-9162/84/1000-0014901.00(1984IEEE14COMPUTERbecause
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