Chapter 34 Social SecurityChapter OutlineYou Are HereSocial Security’s OriginHow to Fund Social SecurityThe Current Funding SystemThe Basics: TaxesThe Basics: BenefitsChanges to Social SecurityWhy Social Security is NeededSocial Security’s Impact on the EconomyWho is the Program Good ForUsing Present ValueWill the System Be There for Me?Why is Social Security in TroubleEstimates of Social Security’s BankruptcyOptions of Saving Social SecurityChapter 34Social SecurityCopyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin34-2Chapter Outline•THE BASICS•WHY DO WE NEED SOCIAL SECURITY•SOCIAL SECURITY’S EFFECT ON THE ECONOMY•WILL THE SYSTEM BE THERE FOR ME34-3You Are Here34-4Social Security’s Origin•The 1935 Social Security Act•Part of the FDR “New Deal”•Intended to be a “third leg” of a retirement tripod–Social Security–Individual Savings –Company Pensions34-5How to Fund Social Security•Every retirement system must be funded by using currently generated money to pay current retirees or use the balances of previously saved money to pay current retirees.–Pay-as-you-go : a system where current workers’ taxes are used to pay pensions to current retirees–Fully-Funded: system where for every benefit dollar it is required to pay in the future there is an off-setting amount currently invested that is sufficient to pay off that dollar34-6The Current Funding System •Social Security was, until 1982, a pay-as-you-go system.•The baby-boom (1946-1964) created a problem for the system starting in 2010.•Recognizing this, Congress created the Social Security Trust Fund in 1982.–This makes Social Security a hybrid of a pay-as-you-go and fully funded system.34-7The Basics: Taxes•Social Security is funded with a payroll tax (taxes owed on what workers earn from their work) •Employers and employees both pay an equal amount. •The amount for Social Security is 6.2%* of payroll up to the Maximum Taxable Earnings (the maximum of taxable earnings subject to the payroll tax). •*the tax is 7.65% minus the 1.45% Medicare tax34-8The Basics: Benefits•People who have reached the retirement age (the age at which retirees get full benefits) are eligible for a benefit check.•The amount of the benefit check is a factor (1 plus .5 times the number of dependents) times the Primary Insurance Amount (PIA, the amount single retirees receive in a monthly check if they retire at their retirement age).•The PIA is a function of the Average Index of Monthly Earnings (AIME, the monthly average of the 35 highest earnings years adjusted for wage inflation)•Benefits adjusted each year for wage inflation34-9Changes to Social Security•Tax Rate–1935 1%; 2007 7.65% (6.2% excluding Medicare)•Maximum Taxable Earnings–1935 $1000; 2007 $97,500 (at the 6.2% rate and unlimited at the 1.45% rate).•Retirement Age–1935 65 years of age; 2009 (Depends on the year of birth) 1938->65+2 months; 1939->65+4 months; 1940->65+6 months; 1941->65+8 months; 1942->65+10 months; 1943-1954->66; 1955->66+2 months; 1956->66+4 months; 1957->66+ 6 months; 1958->66+8 months; 1959->66+10 months; 1960 on 67•Coverage–1935 Old age; 2007 Old age + Medicare + Disability + Survivor34-10Why Social Security is Needed•Externalities –market, left unregulated, will create impacts on people other than the buyer or seller–Workers may make a decision to rely on welfare and not save. That decision affects taxpayers.•People cannot overcome a poor decision not to save.–Most decisions that adversely affect people can be changed. –The decision not to save cannot be reversed (because you cannot go back and live your life over again.)34-11Social Security’s Impact on the Economy•Work (lower)–People retire earlier than they otherwise would have.–People work less that they otherwise would have.•Saving (in net lower)–Asset Substitution Effect: government is saving for you, you will save less for yourself–Induced Retirement Effect: because people need to save more if they are going to retire earlier than they would have without Social Security.–Bequest Effect: increases national savings because people save more so as to give larger gifts to their descendants34-12Who is the Program Good For•People who retired before 1980 received, on average, more than they would have in private alternatives.•People who retired between 1980 and 2000 received ______ than they would have in private alternatives–More (if they were poor)–Less (if they were wealthy)•People who retire today will receive less than they would have in private alternatives.34-13Using Present Value•To compute the value of Social Security to an individual, a person would–Use a reasonable low-risk real rate of interest (3-5%)–Compute the present value of expected Social Security taxes to be paid.–Compute the present value of expected Social Security benefits to be received.–Subtract the present value of costs from the present value of benefits to get the net present value.•A single worker beginning today can expect a negative net present value.34-14Will the System Be There for Me?•The Social Security Trust Fund–a fund set up in 1982 in order to hold government debt which will be sold as necessary when tax revenues are less than benefits–The trust fund is not an asset but more accurately the ability for the government to reborrow money it had previously repaid.34-15Why is Social Security in Trouble•The number of workers per retiree –Was above 40 in 1940–Fell to around 5 in the 1980s and 1990s–Will eventually fall to under 3.•This demographic problem resulted from the baby-boom (1946-1964).34-16Estimates of Social Security’s Bankruptcy•An organization is bankrupt if it has insufficient assets to pay off its obligations.•Estimates suggest that Social Security will be “bankrupt” in the 2040s.•“bankrupt” is not necessarily the correct term because the government could borrow to continue to pay benefits.34-17Options of Saving Social Security•raising payroll taxes –Raise the tax rate–Eliminate the maximum taxable earnings•raising the retirement age further•cutting benefits with a Means Test –those with high incomes or great wealth would get less of their PIA than those who depend on the monthly check•reduce the adjustment for inflation to price inflation rather than wage inflation (perhaps only for upper income