Stat 321 – Day 11AnnouncementsWhat to ExpectSome things to look out forStop and Think QuestionsDay 8, Ex 2: Randomized ResponseExample 2: Randomized ResponseSlide 8Stat 321 – Day 11ReviewAnnouncementsExam ThursdayReview sheet on webReview problems and solutions on webCovering chapters 1, 2; HW 1-3; Lab 1-3; Quiz 1-2You will be supplied with formulas (sample online)You will be allowed to bring in one page of notesBring your calculatorWhat to ExpectCalculation and Communicationshow steps (some only set up, partial credit)what does it mean, interpretationDon’t forget about Ch. 1Possibleconstruct an example where…show this relationship is true…prove this statement…Rework quizzes, hws; review labs (big ideas)Some things to look out forLanguageFrequency vs. relative frequencyProbability vs. empirical probabilityEstimated vs. exactSee Day 9 handout online for common confusionsPermutations vs. CombinationsMutually exclusive vs. independenceBayes’ Theorem vs. Law of Total ProbabilityStop and Think QuestionsIf you were to flip a coin six times, which sequence do you think would be most likely: HHHHHH or HHTHTH or HHHTTT?Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Which of the following events do you think is more likely? Explain your answer.A={Linda is a bank teller} B={Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement} Evelyn Marie Adams won the New Jersey lottery twice in a short time period. Her winnings were $3.9 million the first time and $1.5 million the second time. The New York Times claimed that the odds of one person winning the top price twice were about 1 in 17 trillion. How would you explain to someone that this is not a startling coincidence?Day 8, Ex 2: Randomized ResponseTechnique for asking sensitive questionsRandomly decide which question respondents will answer: sensitive or boringWork backwards with probability rules to estimate proportions for sensitive questionExample 2: Randomized ResponseFlip fair coinHeads: answer sensitive questionTails: answer boring question=“does your home phone number end in even digit?”Determine proportion of “yeses”Define eventsY=“response is yes”S=“respondent answered sensitive question”Example 2: Randomized ResponseRespondents are ensured confidentialityCan still obtain estimate for
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