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UCLA HNRS 70A - HC70A-W10-1-21-10-Lecture5

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Some Perspectives on Energy UCLA January 21, 2009The Perfect Storm… Energy Security • Little domestic supply • Unrest in producing regions Demand Trends • Consumption outpacing discovery • China & India Supply Trends • Nationalization of reserves • High oil prices • Peak production Environmental • Carbon emissions • Drilling/mining Where will we find a significant, renewable, domestic source of transportation fuels?In the Future…. We will get most of our transportation fuels from: A) Electric cars B) Hydrogen C) Conventional oil and gas D) Biofuels E) Hot air from UCLA professorsArenʼt “Clean Electrons” The Answer?… CSP Photovoltaic Wind Geothermal Nuclear? Clean Coal? Solar currently 0.01%; Wind currently 0.75% of US grid. More electrons means more coalWhere Does A Barrel Of Oil Go? Only ~44% of a barrel is used to produce gasoline Only 48% of gasoline use is passenger cars (21% of the barrel) Of that 21%, how much can be replaced with “electrons”?Hybrids – YES! All Electric – Unlikely! Range: 40 miles (electric only) Internal Combustion Engine – Yes! 4 cylinder – 1.0 liter Increased mpg – Yes Still needs liquid fuel? - absolutely Crash test performance? Range? Heater? Air conditioner? Stuck in traffic? DVD player? We can significantly increase fuel efficiency, but we cannot do away with fuel 2010 202?Can PHEVʼs Replace Oil? Light Duty Fleet Oil Use - Impact of PHEVs on Consumption02468101214162000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030YearOil Consumption (MPBD)2005 AEO Base CasePHEV ScenarioAssumptions: 2010 new car sales are 100% hybrids; 2020 new cars are 50% PHEVMeanwhile… Global demand growth for low cost, internal combustion transportation is likely to outpace increases in fuel efficiencyIn the Future…. We will get most of our transportation fuels from: A) Electric cars B) Hydrogen C) Conventional oil and gas D) Biofuels E) Hot air from UCLA professorsIn the Future…. We will get most of our power from: A) Solar and wind B) Conventional coal and gas C) Nuclear D) Biopower E) Hot air from UCLA professorsUtility deck 11 The Perfect Storm for Biopower Biopower Renewable Electricity Volatility in commodity prices Environmental concerns Proven and scalable baseload generation Can substitute for coal using existing infrastructure Carbon neutral and even carbon negative Enabling regulatory policies Reduction in SOx, NOx and mercury emissions Co-firing is a low-risk pathUtility deck 12 Co-firing is Cheaper than Solar and is Baseload Unlike Wind or Solar 0 50 100 150 200 250Levelized cost ($/MWh)GeothermalDedicated biomas sBiomass co-firing 75Wind 77Solar thermal tower 146Solar thermal trough 181Solar thin film 152Solar PV 23154 8498 1295739111132100173Intermittent Baseload Co-firing becomes even more attractive once carbon offsets from biomass and SOx and NOx reductions are considered.In the Future…. We will get most of our power from: A) Solar and wind B) Conventional coal and gas C) Nuclear D) Biopower E) Hot air from UCLA professorsThe Biggest Drawback of Biofuels is: A) They cause food prices to rise B) They will starve the poor C) They threaten the worldʼs forests D) They canʼt scale E) They cause childhood obesityWith plausible technology developments, biofuels could supply some 30% of global demand… To realize that goal, so-called advanced biofuels must be developed from dedicated energy crops, separately and distinctly from food. Steven E. Koonin Chief Scientist, BP The Opportunity for BiofuelsBasic Carbohydrate Biochemistry Cellulases Hemicellulases Cellulose (cell walls) C5/C6 fermentation/ distillation Biofuels Hemicellulose (cell walls) Starch (corn grain) amylase / glucoamylase Biofuels C6 fermentation/ distillation Sucrose (sugarcane) Hydrolysis / C6 fermentation / distillation BiofuelsNot all sources are the same Source: Biofuels Joint Roadmap, June 2006, DOE; data derived from Brinkman et al. 2005 How much fossil energy is required to produce transportation fuel?Itʼs the OIL, not the Ethanol US Corn Prices Oct. 07 to Oct. 0822.533.544.555.566.57Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-0 8Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-0 8Jul-08Aug -08Sep -08Oct-08Price per BushelSources: NYMEX, USDA, RFA Volume of US ethanol production400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000Oct-07Dec-07Feb-08Apr-08Jun-08Aug-08Oct-081,000 of US gallonsHigher commodity prices (like corn) are driven by OIL prices, not ethanol production volumes!Why Do Corn Prices Track Oil? Crude Oil Price (NYMEX) January 2007 to October 2008 Corn Price (CBOT) January 2007 to October 2008 Corn Starch Ethanol Gasoline OilAgriculture is NOT Static… Open-Pollinated Double Cross Biotechnology Single-Cross Hybrids Average U.S. Corn Yields Bushels/Acre Hybrid genetics & biotechnology have driven a five-fold increase in average U.S. corn yields since 1940. Data Source: USDANot Enough Food in the World? § Clinically obese (>30%) outnumber malnourished by 2:1 margin (1.6B to 0.8B) § Only 60% of global corn acres are hybrid varieties § Less than 50% of global rice acres are hybrid varieties § Increased yield is the answer for both food and fuel crops Incentives, innovation and technology can make it more sustainableIs Food Too Expensive? Source: USDA Economic Research Service U.S. Food Expenses Percent of Household Income Home Total AwayThe Real “Crime Against Humanity” Corn Yield Trends (Bushel Per Acre) 1990 2000 2005 World Average 59 70 75 USA 113 137 149 Argentina 60 93 109 China 74 78 80 Brazil 33 47 54 India 23 29 31 Sub-Saharan Africa 22 24 25 Source: Monsanto/Doane ForecastA Brief History of Life… Years Ago 4,600,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 600,000,000 400,000,000 150,000,000 65,000,000 7,000,000 18,000 10,000 40 Event Formation of Earth Unicellular life Photosynthesis Multicellular life Cambrian explosion Land plants Flowering plants K/T extinction Hominids End of last Ice Age Agriculture Green Revolution Agriculture is not “natural”, it is a distinctly human activityShould We Have Agriculture? The Worst Mistake In The History of the Human Race “…a catastrophe from which we have never recovered” -Jared Diamond or Agriculture -The Basis of Civilization “The single, decisive factor that made it possible for mankind to settle in permanent


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UCLA HNRS 70A - HC70A-W10-1-21-10-Lecture5

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