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UW ATMS 211 - Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

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1Impacts of Climate Change in thePacific NorthwestPhilip MoteClimate Impacts GroupUniversity of WashingtonClimate Science in the Public InterestEstimating impacts of climate change on Xß Is X sensitive to climate?ß Can we separate the influence of climatefrom other influences?ß To which climate variables is X sensitive?ß Do climate models give plausible changesin those climate variables?Climate change in the 20th centuryImpacts onß Snowß Streamflowß Forestsß Salmonß Sea level rise2 Decrease Increase Decrease IncreaseMote 2003(b) Decrease Increase19282000The South Cascadeglacier retreateddramatically in the20th centuryCourtesy of the USGSglacier group3Trends in timing of spring snowmelt (1948-2000)Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan+20d later–20d earlierSummary of observed changesß Significant increases in temperaturethroughout the Northwestß Modest increase in precipitation (but morevariable than temperature)ß Net hydrologic response: reduction insnowpack, earlier spring freshet. Someevidence of reduction in summer flow.ß Biological responses - forests moving intomeadows, plants blooming & leafing earlierhydrological changesClimate impacts: The multiplier ofuncertaintyregional climate changesglobal climate model projectionsbiological changeseconomic and social consequencesdarker colors indicate higher confidence421st century temperature changeIPCC (www.ipcc.ch)Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990Projected PNW Climate ChangePrecipitationTemperature2020s+ 14.4 %+ 2.5°CHigh+ 6.9%+ 1.5°CMean+ 1.5 %+ 0.5°CLowPrecipitationTemperature2040s+ 13.7 %+ 3.2°CHigh+ 7%+ 2.3°CMean- 3.3 %+ 1.5°CLowBased on an increase in equivalent CO2 of 1% peryear. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s.Projected changesin average annualPNW temperatureand precipitationfor the decades ofthe 2020s and2040s.Impacts onß Water resourcesß Salmonß Forestsß Coastsß Other5Main Impact: Less SnowApril 1 Snow Extent for theColumbia River BasinLess snow, earliermelt:⁄ More water inwinter! Less water insummer020000400006000080000100000120000140000O N D J F M A M J J A SFlow (cfs)basecomp 2020comp 2040Snake River at Ice Harborand climate damageFloodsEstuary conditions: prey, predators,competitorsLow summerstreamflow, high temp????Vegetation modeling for 2070-2100including effects of changes in•temperature•precipitation (seasonality?)•CO2 (uncertain)Longer, hotter summers likely totake a toll on Northwest forests evenwith CO2 fertilizationForestsVegetation carbonCourtesy Ron Neilson, USFS/OSU6Cayuse Pass, June 26 2003ß Sea level riseq accelerate erosion of various landformsq salt water intrusion in freshwater aquifersq shrink wetlandsq beach lossß Changing wave climateq redistributing sandq accelerating erosionß Increased winter rainfallq landslides in loose soilProjected Impacts on CoastsOtherß Human health:q heat/cold??q respiratory ailments (ozone)q vector-borne diseases?q water quality?ß Agriculture:q highly adaptableq some crops will do worse, others betterq availability of irrigation waterq competition from other regions & countriesConclusionsß Regional climate change will take many forms,most of which we cannot predictß Warming is virtually certain and has profoundimpacts: loss of snowpack, reduction insummer water supply, hardships for salmonand forestsß Increases in precipitation have further


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