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UW-Madison SOC 674 - Sociology 674 Problem Set 1

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Sociology 674Problem set 1 Due 9/15/051) The most basic demographic equation is the so-called balancing equation:P2=P1+B-D+IM-OMwhere P2 is population at time 2, P1 is population at time 1, B is the number of births between time 1 and 2, D is the number of deaths between time 1 and 2, IM is the number of in-migrations between time 1 and 2, OM is the number of out-migrations between time 1 and 2.What are the most likely sources of data for each of the components of this balancing equation?2) In the demographic transition, mortality decline typically begins before fertility decline. How can we best explain this pattern of change?3) A few questions based on the Excel Modules in the texta) Demographic transition module (pp. 19-20). First, click on the “trends since 1950, two countries” tab. Click on the menu tab and choose any one country for both first area and second area. Choose CBR for one variable and CDR for another variable. This will generate a graph of CBR and CDR in one country from 1950 to 2050. Based on this graph, answer questions 1-3 on page 20. Please attach the graph for your selected country with your answers. (You can just cut and paste the graph into a word processor file).b) Using the “historical trends” tab, construct graphs showing the CBR, CDR, and RNI (rate of natural increase) for Norway. Answer questions 4-6 b) Population dynamics module (pp.22-23). First, after clicking on the “natural increase” tab, let’s simulate a classic western demographic transition. Set the parameters at the following values – Population year 0=1 million, crude birth rate year 0=35, crude birth rate year 50=30, crude birth rate year 100=10, crude death rate year 0=35, crude death rate year 50=20, crude death rate year 100=10, intermediate year=50. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference.Next, let’s simulate a demographic transition in which the transition occurs more rapidly. Shift the intermediate year from 50 to 15. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference. Compare the growth in total population in the two scenarios. Interpret the differences you observe.c) Next, let’s use the “net migration” button to compare circumstances in low fertility countries with differing levels of net migration (i.e., immigration). Set the parameters at the following values – Population year 0=1 million, crude birth rate year 0=20, crude birth rate year 50=18,crude birth rate year 100=15, crude death rate year 0=15, crude death rate year 50=18, crude death rate year 100=20, net migration rate=0. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference.Next, increase the net migration rate to 5. Print or save this page to a separate file for your reference. Compare the growth in total population in the two scenarios. Interpret the differences you observe.4) A few questions to familiarize you with web sites containing key demographic information. The questions themselves are not particularly important – I would just like you to familiarize yourself a bit with the demographic information available from these cites. Don’t spend a lot of time on this – if you can’t find the information, that’s okay. a) Go to the web site for the National Center for Health Statistics (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/). Look around and see if you can find the number of births anddeaths in the United States in 2000.b) Go to the web site for the U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov). Look around andsee if you can find the number of foreign born residents in the United States in 2003. I suggest first going to the “Subjects A to Z” link at the top of the home


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UW-Madison SOC 674 - Sociology 674 Problem Set 1

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