POL 202 Int. Relations Lecture 11 Outline of Last Lecture I. Interest Groupsa. Economic motives definitionb. Ethnic motives definitionII. How can small groups have a big influence on policy?a. Answer lies in the nature of interactionsb. An ex definitionc. Interest “hijack”d. Democracy examplesIII. How does domestic interest affect international bargaining?a. Influencing costs and benefitsIV. Terms hawks and dovesa. Hawk definitionb. Dove definitionV. Dove and Hawks examples and thorough explanationVI. Democratic Peacea. Definitionb. Democraciesc. Two major aspects of democracyi. Contestation definitionii. Participation definitionVII. Liberala. Definitionb. Liberal democracies to haveOutline of Current Lecture I. What is a democracy?a. Difference in war and peace?b. Two broad influences institutions can affect the likelihood of warc. Costs of war are paid by society at larged. One solution to this problem is to establish a democratic governmente. Representative institutions could thus slow or stop the decision to go to warf. Accountabilityi. Definitionii. Electionsg. Democratic leaders face higher costs from war than nondemocratical leadersh. Nondemocratic leadersII. War and Fate of the political leadersa. What happens to leadersIII. Democracy and Bargaininga. Democratic institutionsb. Transparency can reduce the risk of preemptive war between democraciesc. Mechanisms of accountability d. Institutions of accountabilityIV. Conclusionsa. Political leadersb. Groups and interestsCurrent LectureI. What is democracy?a. How could democracies be different when it comes to war and peace?b. Two broad ways domestic institutions can affect the likelihood of wari. By influencing interest of states and their leadersii. By influencing the bargaining interaction between and among countriesc. Costs of war are paid by society at largei. Leader rarely has direct exposure to cost of warii. Interest of the ruler and riles this are not always alignedd. One solution to this problem is to establish a democratic governmenti. The ruler would be accountable to the peopleii. This ruler would align the interest of the ruler and rulede. Representative institutions could thus slow or stop the decision to go to warf. Accountability: the ability to punish or rewards leaders for their decisionsi. Elections provide a simple mechanism for people to impose these punishmentsii. Elections must meet 2 conditions1. Elections must be free and faira. Mubarak electoral successes in Egypt2. Leader must comply with resulta. Gbagbo refused to accept defeat in 2010 Cote d’lvoireg. Democratic leaders face higher costs from war than nondemocratical leadersh. Nondemocratic leaders also find that life after losing office is not pleasanti. Their removal from office usually occurs through violent meansi. Logic of accountability suggests that democratic leaders should be more selectiveabout starting warsi. Nondemocratical leader may be willing to gambleII. War and Fate of the Political Leadersa. What happens to leaders who take their countries to wars? Three outcomesi. Victoriesii. Small lossesiii. Big lossesb. About 85% of leaders who lost costly wars also lost office within a year of the wars endi. Nondemocratical leaders face a much greater risk of additional punishmentIII. Democracy and Bargaininga. Democratic institutions make it easier to overcome informational problemsi. Political systems are much transparentii. Are more able to send credible signals in crisesb. Transparency can reduce the risk of preemptive war between democraciesi. Commitment to refrain from attacking is made credible because neither can mobilize forces in secretc. Mechanisms of accountability mean that public disapproval is more likely to result in some sort of punishment for democratic leaderd. Institutions of accountabilityi. Make it easier for democratic leaders to credibly communicate their resolve because backing down creates public disapprovalIV. Conclusion: What if all the world were democratic?a. Political leaders may care about what is best for their country, but also care about staying in officeb. When groups with hawkish interests have superior organization and resources, they can push the state together greater international ambitionc. When interactions and institutions empower those who bear the costs of war:i. They can exert a pacifying effect at the international levelii. The relative openness and transparency of democratic political process can1. Reduce informational and commitment problems that cause bargaining to failiii. Two reasons to be cautious1. Although the number of democracies has increased over time, thespread of democracy has also experienced reversals2. Not all democratic countries are liberal; some are built on ethnic or religious identities that can foster conflictsiv. What if public is motivated by nationalist, ethnocentric, or even genocidalideasv. The international effects of democracy’s spread may depend not only on institutions, but also in the interests of the