Era of Fossil FuelSlide 2The Roaring 20s – The Age of ChangeSlide 4Peak Oil and the End of An EraWhat is Peak Oil?Slide 7After Peak OilAre We at Peak Oil?Why is There So Little Discussion of Peak Oil?Sounding the Alarm on Peak OilThe Politics of Peak OilDeniers and Hypocrites on Peak OilWhy are Fossil Fuels So Special?How Fossil Fuels Change Our LivesThe Amazing Properties of OilSlide 17Where Oil Comes FromOil Prices 1861 to 2010Oil Prices in 2004 DollarsEra of Fossil Fuel Norman W. GarrickLecture 9Sustainable TransportationBased mostly onKunstler, The Long Emergency, 2005, Atlantic Monthly Press, New York, pg. 73-87(Chapter 2: Modernity and the Fossil Fuels Dilemma)The Roaring 20s – The Age of ChangeKunstler asks us to imagine living in 1924, the year when all the following technology was just beginning to flower:CarsAirplanesElectricityCentral HeatingSkyscrapersRadiosMotion PicturesX-RayAt the time these were still glorious modern marvels, that we now take for grantedThe Roaring 20s – The Age of ChangeIn the 20s all the above were still glorious modern marvels, that we now take for grantedSince then we have mostly refined technology (except for computers and the internet) rather than make major advancesEven atomic fission would have been impossible without fossil fuel and might not be practical in the future without it All these technology are enabled by access to CHEAP fossil fuelsPeak Oil and the End of An EraKunstler’s vision is that we may be near the end of an era – the end of the age of fossil fuelIn the chapter on which this lecture is based he makes the case for the End of the Age of Fossil Fuel In this chapter he sounds the call to action to prepare for a new and different eraWhat is Peak Oil?Peak oil is the point at which we have extracted half of the oil hat existed on the planetOne important point (and often overlooked consequence of the peak oil debate) is that the half that is gone was theeasiest to get, the highest quality and the cheapest to refineKunstler reminds us that the remaining half will be In less accessible places (like deep under the ocean)Difficult and expensive to extract (may take more energy to recover that what it contains)High sulfur content (so difficult to refine)In tar sands or oil shales, so must be mined (Adding to cost and less environmentally palatable)Much of this stuff might never be recoveredWhat is Peak Oil?After Peak OilAfter peak oil we will never get back to the peak level of productionThis will coincide with continued rise in demand (at least for a time)In Kunstler’s view this will lead to economic crisis that will be manifested in Affecting the economies of different nationsToppled governmentsAltered of political boundariesMilitary strifeChallenge to the continuation of civilized lifeAt peak we will have a population that demands the amount of oil we were generating at that timeAfter peak, supply will decline relentlessly, stressing social and market systemsAre We at Peak Oil?Have we passed peak?Are we at peak? Or, Is the peak still to come?We don’t knowthe peak will only be obvious in retrospectWe will view the peak looking through the rearview windowWhy is There So Little Discussion of Peak Oil?If Kunstler is correct why aren’t we paying attention to peak oil and the consequence of passing this point in history?Kunstler see us suffering from cultural inertia and collective delusion fed by comfort and complacency (of course, this book was written before this last economic crisis, which is not being linked to oil)There is also the belief in some quarters that oil is superabundant and limitless due to Undiscovered oil fieldsYet to be exploited technologies that will extend the life of existing oil fieldsSounding the Alarm on Peak OilSo why is no prominent group or figure sounding an alarm?Where is the Al Gore of peak oil?The oil companies have the information but they don’t see it as their responsibility to think of the future of the worldKunstler also accuses the oil companies of indulging in wishful thinkingThey are saying thatIf we are at peak then market forces will trigger innovations which will solve the problemIf not then there is no real problem“Corporate executives and the public alike share a belief in Techno-Miracle”The Politics of Peak OilKunstler sees the US Government as being in a tough spot with regards to this issueHe says the government and our political culture are invested in a specific type of ‘American Dream’ that is based on the outsourcing of manufacturing and consumerism fueled by cheap oilThe dilemma that they face is that it is political suicide to question this version of the American Dream – we are too invested in itThe result is that the government response to peak oil has been (choose one)1. Ignore2. Change the subject3. SpinDeniers and Hypocrites on Peak OilKunstler says President Carter was the only president that spoke the truth on this issue but his vision was flawed by his abiding belief in a techno fix for replacing fossil fuelThe 80s and the 90s brought us the former hippies who became boomers and then yuppies with a penchant for SUVs and McMansions in exurbia and the computer revolution of the 1990s feed the techno hubrisKunstler sees Republicans as deniers and Democrats as hypocrites (with a position of moral superiority on environmental issues, while driving SUVs)Why are Fossil Fuels So Special?In Kunstler’s view fossil fuels are a gift from the geological history of the planet that allowed us to artificially and temporarily extend the carrying capacity of the planetThe intensive use of fossil fuels covers about 200 years, starting with coal and then oil and natural gasDuring this 200 year era the earth’s population exploded from 1 Billion to 6.5 BillionIf we were to remove fossil fuel now we would be in big troubleKunstler sees this period as a one time deal – an anomalous period in human historyHow Fossil Fuels Change Our LivesKunstler says that because of fossil fuel all of us in the industrialized world live as if we have hundreds of slaves at our disposalLife without fossil fuels is unimaginable and would require us to conceive of a different socio-economic model and because of the leap of faith that this requires, we are unprepared for what is to comeCheap oil meant that everyone in the developed world benefitedThe Amazing Properties of OilKunstler says that ‘Oil is Amazing’It has large amount of energy per unit weight and unit volumeOil also