Great Power PoliticsGOV 312L 1st Edition Lecture 11 Outline of Current Lecture I. The political consequences of war: How do great power settlements influence the peace?II. Is great power war over?III. The Cold War as a great power conflictIV. Russia as “loser” and US/West as “winner” of the Cold WarV. US, Russia, and post-Cold War settlementCurrent LectureGreat Power Politics-Winners of war help recognize and legitimate the government.• Putin has been trying to do the same in Ukraine and new Russia.• United States did it after WW2, United States and Europe did it together after Cold War.• Similarly Russia did the same after WW2.• These settlements shape the subsequent order by shaping the military power.• The victors restricted the power of Germany’ military power so that they could not shape the status quo.These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.• Peace settlements create status quo and set up mechanisms to prevent it being overthrown.• Putin’s anger is with the status quo after Cold War; he is trying to revise and redo the settlement that came out of the implosion of the Soviet Union.-The 20th century is referred to as the American century.-Here are some ways how.• Woodrow Wilson, in the 19th century champions self-determination.-This spurs independence movements around the world.-His mechanism introduced a new political system that overthrew the imperialism in the world.-It looked to collective action and nationalism.-It looked to foster local resistance to imperial rule.-The number of independent states increased.-Democracy promotion by United States.• This has defined the United States grand strategy.• Wilson’s legacy is in American foreign policy today.• FDR and Truman also helped democracy in Germany and Japan.-Fear that locals were making Italy into communist after military victory quickly transformed to economic problems.-The absence of economic stability tilts towards communism.-So Marshall Aid Plan helped to avoid this.• The post WW2 made an extensive alliance with NATO, so Germany like WW1 inner war period does not occur, this time with the Soviet.-The victors took care to make better, broader economic monetary organizations such as World Bank, GATT, etc.-They aimed to reduce trade barriers and increase trade.-The same way that isolationism and fascism turned up because of economic problems. They don’t want it to happen again.-Brian-Will great power wars still happen?-Have the great powers already finished stuff?• Is war among great powers going to be uncommon?-There are wars in Africa, but these are civil.• Great powers will only participate and fight proxy wars.• If wars are not fought, no one will challenge great power United States for a long long time.-Three sources of great power peace. The first is globalization–economic.• These days states get wealthy due to completive advantage (specialization and trade). This has reduced the need to get land.• US does not need Canada or Mexico land.• But the economic trade helps all three countries.• Similarly for China—China has given loans, reduced loan interest, jobs created in China. So it it good for economics to not fight.-Second source of great power peace–Second strike capabilities (def: can fight even after first deadly strike on yourself).• Intense conflict is unacceptable cost.• This threat pushes for peaceful resolution, armies are not moved into other country.• Example: Soviet Union did discussion instead of war.-Third:•It’s just not worth it to fight the powerful America.• America can see threats on all see sides because of oceans.-Moving on, if great war is not on the table, then United States has a very different role.-Ikenbury and Mead look at the same issue of geopolitics. Mead could be overstating that three states (US, China, Russia) are too revisionist.-Does Ikenbury understate the power the countries are.-Moser-A great power war will not happen because nuclear threat.-Cold War is not a great power war (no direct fighting), it is a great pose conflict.• Territorial change.• Regime change: Democracy countries and authoritative countries pop up–none of them are communists. So, lots of regime change. This is one hallmark of a post war settlement.• Bipolar to unipolar military.• Some frameworks fail: Warsaw Pact vs NATO.-Russia was the primary loser of the Cold War.-Putin’s actions right now are response to Russian loss in Cold War.-United States as the winners of the cold war got ideological, military and economic stuff–pretty much all they wanted.-Biggest challenge for US: What to do with post-communist Russia (foreign policy)?• Would they be an ally or foe?• Debate in 1991.• NATO expansion, give Russia Marshall Aid?-Dilemma for Russia: Should we join the West?• Can the West be trusted?• Will Western policies strengthen or weaken us?-Is NATO good for us? Will the West try to help us. Or their policies designed to keep Russia down. NATO was seen as a broken promise–because if Soviet set Germany reunite, then NATO won’t expand. But this promise wasn't kept.-This was the debate in