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ENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/11/05 – RISK COMMUNICATION PAGE 1Risk CommunicationRisk = probability of harmPerceptions of probabilities are biased Compression small probabilities are overestimated large probabilities are underestimated Availability visible risks are overestimated unmemorable risks are underestimated Pre-existing opinion strong pre-existing opinions prevent change by data no pre-existing opinion makes "framing" influential External factors events seen as signals of technological "surprises" are scarier desirability of control actions influences perceptionENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/11/05 – RISK COMMUNICATION PAGE 2Risk = Hazard + Outrage"Outrage" discerned through risk rankingsRiskLeague ofWomen VotersCollegeStudents1 Motor vehicles 2 52 Smoking 4 33 Alcoholic beverages 6 74 Handguns 3 25 Surgery 10 116 Motorcycles 5 67 X-rays 22 178 Pesticides 9 49 Electric power 18 1910 Swimming 19 3011 Contraceptives 20 912 Private aviation 7 1513 Large construction 12 1414 Food preservatives 25 1215 Bicycles 16 2416 Commercial aviation 17 1617 Police work 8 818 Fire fighting 11 1019 Railroads 24 2320 Nuclear power 1 121 Food coloring 26 2022 Home appliances 29 2723 Hunting 13 1824 Prescription antibiotics 28 2125 Vaccinations 30 2926 Spray cans 14 1327 High school & college football23 2628 Power mowers 27 2829 Mountain climbing 15 2230 Skiing 21 25Factors Influencing Risk PerceptionENV U6220 THURSDAY, 8/11/05 – RISK COMMUNICATION PAGE 3Higher Outrage Lower OutrageInvoluntary VoluntaryUncontrollable Personally controllableMan-made NaturalUnfamiliar FamiliarUnfair FairEffects on children No effects on childrenNo visible benefits Visible benefitsMemorable Not memorableControversial Well understoodDreaded CommonCatastrophic ContinuousRisk ComparisonsAcceptable comparisons Comparison among risk estimates Comparison before and after action Comparison with a standardUnacceptable comparisons —— ignore outrage dimensionsActivity Annual riskCigarette smoking (1 pack/day) 0.36%All cancers 0.28%Automobile accident 0.024%Air pollution 0.02%Home accident 0.011%Frequent flying 0.005%Pedestrian accident 0.0042%2 oz. peanut butter 0.0008%Electrocution 0.00053%Tap water with chloroform 0.00006%EPA'sSeven Cardinal Rules of Risk CommunicationCR 1 — Accept and involve the public as a legitimate partner.CR 2 — Plan carefully and evaluate your performance.CR 3 — Listen to the public's concerns and feelings.CR 4 — Be honest, open and frank.CR 5 — Coordinate and collaborate with other credible sources.CR 6 — Meet the needs of the media.CR 7 — Speak clearly and with compassion, kindness and respect.Guide to Ineffective Risk Communication1. Avoid eye contact, keep your arms and legs crossed, and act nervous and/or bored2. Use jargon and mountains of technical details3. Emphasize the benefits of industry and the cost of cleanup4. Minimize risks and make inappropriate comparisons5. Be sarcastic when people express concerns or don't understand you6. Make unrealistic promises7. Give long, prepared, technical speeches when someone asks a question8. Get angry; attack opponents9. Refuse to answer personal questions10. Blame others for mistakes and confusionChallenges for Risk Assessment Hazard Identification How do we decide when to treat a chemical as a carcinogen? How do we identify endocrine disruptors?Dose-response Should we have central tendencies and high-end values, and, if so, how should they be used in a risk assessment? How do we deal with mixtures?Exposure assessment Whose exposure? Which default values are most worth improving?Risk characterization and management Do we need goals besides transparency, clarity, consistency and reasonableness? Who gets to decide what to


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Columbia ENVP U6220 - Risk Communication

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