Class 5a: Population IIFuture populationSlide 3Future population: Thomas MalthusFuture population: MalthusSlide 6Slide 7Slide 8Demographic transitionSlide 10Slide 11Slide 12Slide 13Future population: Ester BoserupSlide 15Slide 16Slide 17UrbanizationSlide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Urbanization: megacitiesSlide 25Class 5a: Population II•Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup•The demographic transition•Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)Future population•Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increaseFuture population•Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increaseFuture population: Thomas Malthus•Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)•Observing the Industrial Revolution•Food is necessary for human existence •"The passion between the sexes is necessary and constant"Future population: Malthus•Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometricallyFuture population: Malthus•Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometricallyFuture population: Malthus•Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically•Therefore, the human population will self-regulate by means of famine •Ecological view of humanityDemographic transition•Shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death ratesDemographic transition•Stage 1: pre-industrial•High birth rate; high, fluctuating death rateDemographic transition•Stage 2: industrial•Birth rate stays high •Death rate drops with better living conditionsDemographic transition•Stage 3: urbanized•Birth rate drops; death rate stays low•Growth begins to taper ofFuture population: Ester Boserup•Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965)•Technological improvements keep food production ahead of population •"Overpopulation" actually drives agricultural improvement •Social scientists’ view of humanityFuture population•Increasing emphasis on quality of life•Reproductive health care•Women’s rights and developmentUrbanization•Just under half world population•But most growth is in cities•Overcrowding, food security, health•Historically follows industrialization•Industrial Revolution: Europe from 12% to 36%•1850-1910, North America from 16% to 40% UrbanizationUrbanization•1950-1990, Third World from 17% to 37% •Most rapid in history•But without economic growth•And without urban decentralizationUrbanization: megacities•Population over 10 million•Disproportionately large economic activity•From 5 in 1970 to 26 in 2015•Strong income disparities•Environmental and health problems•Lack of
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