Slide 1AgendaIntroductionSlide 4Slide 5Formal SE Cost Estimation Supports CMMISlide 7Systems Engineering DefinitionsSlide 9COSYSMOSECOST - HistorySECOST Capabilities and FunctionalitySECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-InterestSlide 14SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued)Slide 16Slide 17Slide 18Slide 19System-of-Systems DefinitionSlide 21System-of-Systems ExamplesSlide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Slide 28Slide 29Slide 30Slide 31SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-SystemsSECOST Cost Recommended ModificationsSlide 34Slide 35Slide 36Slide 37Summary and Conclusions1SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon Company21st International Forum on Systems, Software, and COCOMO Cost ModelingSystems Engineering Cost Estimation: System-of-SystemsJon K. IlsengNovember 8, 20062SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon Company•Introduction•Systems Engineering Definitions•COSYSMO•SECOST History•SECOST Capabilities and Functionality•SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest•System-of-Systems Definition•System-of-Systems Examples•SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Systems•SECOST Recommended Modifications•Summary and ConclusionsAgenda3SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon CompanyIntroduction•Systems Engineering Cost Estimates-Our customers require believable and accurate estimates-OSD AT&L encouraging defense contractors to find “most accurate and consistent systems engineering cost estimation method”-Critical that all 5 Raytheon Business Units (IIS, NCS, SAS, IDS, RMS) submit accurate, consistent, and believable cost estimates4SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon CompanyIntroduction•Systems Engineering Cost Estimates-Various cost estimates used past 20 years for a “system-of-interest”>Heuristic and rule of thumb – Systems Engineer use knowledge & experience to prepare cost estimates; no documented written evidence>Expert Opinion – From SE Domain Expert; no scientific or historical basis>Case Studies – Provide vital information; no scientific basis for how cost estimates actually prepared>Top down and design-to-cost – Top-down approach starts at defined system level; tries to capture SE Tasks but not scientific or historical basis; DTC is designing a system to meet cost targets>Bottoms-up – Common approach beginning with lowest level cost component and rolls up to highest level for total estimate; resource intensive effort which is time-consuming and many times no actual historical data to justify estimate>Parametric – Employs cost estimating relationships (CERs); most accurate cost estimation method; provides repeatable and most credible estimation framework; less time-consuming than bottoms-up5SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon CompanyIntroduction•Systems Engineering Cost Estimates-Motivation for improving SE Cost Estimates>Improved estimation process consistency>Improved accuracy, stakeholder confidence due to historical basis–Establish cost directly correlated with customer supplied requirements & sizing artifacts–Parametric Cost Initiative software & hardware study performed a few years back•Parametric estimates 25-35% less expensive to develop than “bottoms-up”•Parametric estimates every bit as accurate as “bottoms-up”>Improved cost realism, more quantifiable risks–Leaner, more supportable cost bids>Increased Trade Space/Reduced Cycle Time–Some cost estimates require short turn-around time>Better CMMI Support–CMMI model reveals several requirements for cost estimation model as organization moves from Level 2 through Levels 4 & 56SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon CompanyFormal SE Cost Estimation Supports CMMILevel 2•Project Planning•Project Monitoring and Control•Consistent WBS•Size and Complexity Drivers•Attribute-Based EstimatesLevel 3•Integrated Project Monitoring•Measurement Repository•Monitor Attributes•Actuals vs PlanLevel 4•Organizational Process Performance•Quantitative Project Management•Data Collection•Parametric Cost Estimation Model•Local Model CalibrationLevel 5•Organizational Innovation and Deployment• SE Parametric Modeling Represents an Innovative ApproachIntroduction7SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon CompanyIntroduction•Parametric Cost Estimation Method-October 2003 OSD SE Summit>OSD’s position is parametric-based estimates are recommended technique for preparing SE Cost Estimates-Why Parametric Cost Estimation Method>Provides a credible source>Shortens cost estimating cycle times>Creates more easily defended negotiation position with customer>Reduces customer-approval cycle times>Uses historical data to improve quality of cost estimates>Establishes greater consistency in cost estimating process>DCAA/DCMA Government agencies very supportive of parametrics8SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon CompanySystems Engineering Definitions•Systems Engineering-Various definitions across SE Domain>Applying scientific & engineering efforts to integrate related technical parameters>System solution which satisfies customers’ expectations>Interdisciplinary approach which involves integrating various engineering disciplines (i.e., electrical design, software design, hardware design-Notice something missing from these various definitions!>No mention of cost estimating, however, does not diminish importance of it-Pro-active aggressive SE process during program life-cycle>Lower life cycle costs>High system quality & enhanced technical solution>Minimizes cost & schedule overruns9SECOST is a tool developed by Raytheon and used with permission10/21/06Copyright © 2006 Raytheon CompanySystems Engineering Definitions•System-of-Interest-Defined by ISO/IEC 15288 architectural structures-Comprised of interacting system elements-Each system element independent of each other; can operate on their own-Only provides real value when connected together to provide system functions >System>A system>System Element>System Element>System Element>is completely composed of >a set of