CJUS K300 1nd Edition Lecture 6 Outline of Last Lecture I Variance II Standard Deviation Outline of Current Lecture III Probability Current Lecture The way we refer to probability is P the notation for the probability that event X will occur is P X Rules of Probability Bounding Rule all probabilities are bounded between one and zero 0 P A 1 Complement Rule If you know P A then you know P Not A P Not A 1 P A Mutually exclusive events are when two events cannot occur at the same time If A and B are mutually exclusive then P A AND B 0 Ex In a deck of cards pulling a diamond and a heart are mutually exclusive P heart AND diamond 0 Addition Rule either or rule for mutually exclusive events A and B are mutually exclusive P A or B P A P B Ex P Hearts or Diamonds P H P D o P H 25 o P D 25 o 25 25 5 or 5 probability Not all events are mutually exclusive Addition Rule in general form P Hearts and Ace 0 P A or B P A P B P A and B These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute You subtract P A and B in order to not double count the event and overesitmate the probability If you do not subtract A and B you would be counting it twice because you have already included A and B separately Ex P Heart or Ace P H 25 P A 08 P H A 02 31 or 31 Explanation Under the assumption that there are 52 cards in a deck o P Hearts 13 52 or 25 o P Ace 4 52 or 08 o P H A 1 52 or 02
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