PowerPoint PresentationSlide 2Slide 3Climate Change Summary of Facts2 Billion Years of Temperature History300 Million yrs of CO260 Million yrs of CO2Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Slide 11Slide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Slide 17The Carbon QuestionSlide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Greenhouse gas emission scenariosHow much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Slide 28Slide 29Slide 30Slide 31Slide 32Slide 33Slide 34Slide 35Energy Policy PA 395May 27, 2004Gary Flomenhofthttp://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/Course GoalsGovernance:InternationalUSVermontFri, June 11:Attend Vermont VELCO Hearing“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things. For those who would institute change have enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and they have only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new order.”Nicolo Machiavelli, 1490Climate ChangeSummary of Facts2 Billion Years of Temperature History300 Million yrs of CO260 Million yrs of CO2Summary of UnitsK=Kilo=thousand=103M=Mega=million=106G=Giga=Billion=109T=Tera=Trillion=1012Quad=Quadrillion=1015Exa=1018Relevant units: BTU= Unit of energy needed to raise one pound of water by one degree fahrenheit=1005J=778ft-lb=252calJoule=. 0.001 BTUWatts=VxA=1 Joule/secondWatt-hour=one Watt for one hourQuad=Quadrillion (1015) BTUThe Carbon Question96372648487 5402004006008001000Coal Gas Wind SolarThermalOilNuclear PVMetric tons per GWheWorld GDP and CO2$1$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,000100010501100115012001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000World GDP Billions US$$250270290310330350370ATMOSPHERIC CO2World GDPCO2 level02550751001800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Composition of U.S. Energy UseComposition of U.S. Energy Usewoodanimal feedcoaloilgaselectricityPercent of total energy useCO2 vs WORLD GDP270290310330350370$1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000WORLD GDP Billions of 1990 Intl $$ Log scale (source: De Long)ATM CO2 CONCENTRATION parts per million(ppm)GDP 1825: ~$200 BILLION 2000: $41,000 B ILLION OR $41 TRILLION =205X 1825 level.0%20%40%60%80%100%1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950FuelDomesticatedAnimalsLaborWork Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970750650550450 ppmv024681012141950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250Annual Emissions (GtC)Stabilization TargetsGreenhouse gas emission scenariosData Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?8.05.87.66.4024681990 1995 2000 2005 2010Billion tons of carbonBusiness-as-usualKyoto Protocol scenarioData Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-19967,4158,50411,65115,7154,2354,0542,3311,36196650,7951,5572,0802,1180 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000United StatesIndonesiaKorea, Rep.BrazilAustraliaMexicoSouth AfricaCanadaIndiaUnited KingdomJapanGermanyChinaMillion tons of carbonData Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Per capita emissions of carbon from industrial sources, 19961.882.102.462.542.592.872.914.630.330.295.370.460.761.020 1 2 3 4 5 6United StatesIndia IndonesiaBrazilChinaMexicoSouth Africa UkraineKorea, Rep.JapanUnited KingdomGermanyRussian FederationAustraliaThousand tons of carbonSINK-CLIMATE CHANGEArctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subsCLIMATE DAMAGECLIMATE DAMAGECLIMATE DAMAGECLIMATE DAMAGEEurope in August 2003COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILSFrance 14,802Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were the highest since record-keeping began in 1873.Germany 7000High temperatures of up to 105.4 degreesFahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above average.Spain 4230High temperatures coupled with elevated ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk threshold.Italy 4175Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year.UK 2045The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded in London.Neth 1400Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal.Portugal 1316Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout much of the country.Belgium 150Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological Society's records dating back to 1833.TOTAL 35,118Ocean Conveyor Belt-(Thermohaline)Methane-hydrates"Kyoto and its policies are inconsistent with freedom, prosperity and environmental policy progress," said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. "I’m becoming more and more convinced, as time goes by and we look at the research, that global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people and the world."MSNBC News Link
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