A consistent and objective series of historical energy market data.BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2003BP is one of the world’s largest petroleum and petrochemicals companies. Our main activities are exploration for and production of crude oil and natural gas; oil refining, marketing, supply and transportation; and manufacturing and marketing of petrochemicals. We have a growingactivity in gas, power and renewables and in solar power generation. BP has well-established operations in Europe, North and South America,Asia, Australasia and Africa.2002 in reviewOil4Reserves6Production9 Consumption12 Regional consumption – by product group14 Prices15 Stocks16 Refining18 Trade movementsNatural gas20 Reserves22 Production25 Consumption28 Trade movements29 PricesCoal30 Reserves30 Prices32 Production33 ConsumptionThe BP Statistical Review of World Energy on bp.comOur website contains all data found in the printed edition, plus a number of additions, including the historical series from 1965 for many sections. The website covers additionalenergy topics, such as renewable energy, and includes tools to assist researchers. All data can be downloaded.Nuclear energy34 ConsumptionHydroelectricity35 ConsumptionPrimary energy37 Consumption38 Consumption by fuel40 Fossil fuel reserves-to-production ratios40 Energy consumption – per capitaAppendicesConversion factorsDefinitionsBP 2003 Statistical Review of World Energy 1ForewordIn a year when events have brought energy issues back into high profilewith fears of disruption to supplies and of price instability, it is instructiveto take a long-term perspective and to consider the gradual changes thatare reshaping the global energy market.This is the 52nd edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.In its early years, the Review recorded the growth in the consumption ofoil, particularly in Europe and North America, in response to the increasein the number of cars. It also recorded the growth in energy trade, againconcentrated in oil.Five decades on, we are seeing a series of important shifts in thepattern of energy consumption and supply. Natural gas is overtaking coalas a source of energy around the world. Trade in both oil and gas as aproportion of total energy consumption is growing, and the geographicalpattern of that trade is changing as economic growth, particularly inChina, leads to an increase in the requirement for energy imports.The continuing development of Russian energy resources is steadilyincreasing production and opening up the potential for new trading links.So, too, is the development of the energy resources in the Caspianregion. The growth in natural gas consumption is contributing to theshift to a lower carbon fuel mix as well as providing a further importantelement of security in an energy market where the sources of supplyare more diversely spread than at any time over the last century. These are the trends that will shape the world’s energy market overthe decades ahead. They are also the trends shaping BP’s businessactivity as we approach our first centenary in 2008.The Statistical Review is a document of record that has trackedchange for more than half a century. I would like to thank all those withinBP and beyond who have helped produce this year’s edition which canalso be found on our website at www.bp.com/centres/energy. I hopeyou will find it a useful and stimulating summary of a fascinating andever evolving story that remains crucial to human progress. The Lord Browne of MadingleyGroup Chief ExecutiveJune 20032BP Statistical Review of World EnergyBP 2003 Statistical Review of World Energy 3Energy developmentsCoal was the fastest-growing fuel in 2002 on the back of a huge28% reported rise in Chinese consumption. World coal consumptionincreased by almost 7%, well ahead of the 10-year annual trendrate of less than 1%. Natural gas consumption recovered stronglyto grow by 2.8% in 2002, while oil consumption was broadly flatfor the second year running. Nuclear and hydroelectricity grew by1.5% and 1.3% respectively. By region, energy demand was especially weak in Europe and Japan, where consumption fell by 1%, and in South & CentralAmerica, where consumption was flat compared with 2001.Economic conditions explain much of this weakness. Apart from South & Central America, energy consumptiongrowth in the emerging economies was relatively robust in 2002.Non-OECD Asia Pacific (excluding Japan, South Korea andAustralasia) experienced growth of almost 11.5%, reflecting very strong growth of 19.7% in China, while Africa and the Middle East saw rises of 2.2% and 1.6% respectively.OilBrent oil prices averaged $25.19 per barrel in 2002, up slightly onthe 2001 average price of $24.77 and well above the post-1986annual average of $19.40. Prices were relatively weak at the startof the year in the wake of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks,but trended upwards over the course of 2002 on the back ofOPEC production restraint and supply disruptions involving Iraqand Venezuela. The low point in prices of around $18 per barrelwas recorded in mid-January, whereas the peak of almost $32was registered just before the end of the year. OPEC oil production fell substantially in 2002 for the secondyear running. Average production for the year was down by morethan 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) or 6.4%, following an 870,000b/d or 2.8% decrease in 2001. The steep drop in OPEC outputwas the result of output restraint and a number of unplanneddisruptions to production. As in 2001, the largest fall in percentageterms was 14.4% in Iraq, which was affected by a month-longsuspension of exports from April to May and the imposition of‘retroactive pricing’ under the UN’s ‘Oil for Food’ programme. OPEC output restraint in 2002 was a response to the sharpdrop in the demand for its oil in the face of weak global oildemand growth and the rapid expansion of oil production outsideOPEC. Oil demand in 2002 was exceptionally weak for the thirdconsecutive year, with consumption growing by only 290,000 b/d.Oil production outside OPEC increased by 1.45 million b/d. The countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) accounted forover half of this increase, with Russia and Kazakhstan, up by640,000 b/d and 150,000 b/d respectively, accounting for nearly all the FSU’s gains. Other large output increases came fromCanada, Angola and Brazil, up by 170,000 b/d, 160,000 b/d and160,000 b/d respectively. Natural gasWorld consumption of natural
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