Slide 1IntroductionPredictionsProposalResultsNew ProposalResultsExplanationConclusionPrediction on Soccer Matches Using MLPYue Weng MakDec 14, 2010IntroductionSoccer is gaining momentum in the World.Already popular in EuropeRecently popular in Asia (Japan/South Korea (2002)) and Africa (South Africa (2010))Middle East (Qatar(2022))PredictionsAside from watching the sport, many fans are passionate about gambling on the sportPredictions are being made so fans can bet on the outcome of the gameBased on factors such as :1) Whether a certain player is playing2) Coach’s record against the team3) Strategies usedThey are based on human biasnessProposalIn my proposal, I will predict matches based on statistics providedUsing a 3 layer MLP (13-3-1)Inputs will be the last 5 matches of team 1, last 5 matches of team 2 and the last 3 encounters between both teams.A win will be 1, draw will be 0, loss will be -1Most recent match has a higher weight than the previous match and so forthIn the second layer, the home team will have a weight of 1 and the away team a weight of -1.The output will be the result of the home team. Proposal (Continued)ResultsHome AwayPredictions made by my modelActual ResultsArsenal Fulham Arsenal Arsenal BirminghamTottenham Tottenham DrawBlackburn Wolves Blackburn BlackburnChelsea Everton Draw DrawManchester CityBolton Draw Manchester CityWigan Stoke Stoke DrawSunderland West Ham West Ham SunderlandWBA Newcastle Draw WBALiverpool Aston Villa Liverpool LiverpoolMatches Played : Dec 4 – Dec 6New Proposal2 New Inputs will be added to improve the prediction of the matchesHome Advantage (Team that is playing at home will have an additional input of 1, while the team that is playing away have an additional input of 0)Rankings in Table (Team that is higher than the opponent team will have an additional input of 1, with the opponent team having an additional input of 0)ResultsHome AwayPredictions made by old modelPredictions made by new modelActual ResultsArsenal Fulham Arsenal Arsenal Arsenal Birmingham Tottenham Tottenham Tottenham DrawBlackburn Wolves Blackburn Blackburn BlackburnChelsea Everton Draw Draw DrawManchester CityBolton Draw Manchester CityManchester CityWigan Stoke Stoke Stoke DrawSunderland West Ham West Ham West Ham SunderlandWBA Newcastle Draw WBA WBALiverpool Aston Villa Liverpool Liverpool LiverpoolMatches Played : Dec 4 – Dec 6ExplanationFactors :1) Referee Decisions2) ‘Star’ Player not performing well 3) Team Strategies4) Home support (Atmosphere)5) LuckConclusionPredictions based on solely the statistics is not enough as many other factors can affect the outcome of the game.With so many other factors influencing the outcome, this makes soccer unpredictable and
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