IES 612 Part I and STA 473/573End ofModelingIES 612 - Environmental Analysis and ModelingSTA 473/573 - Applied Multiple RegressionSTA 476/576 - Experimental DesignSpring 2004Meeting Times: 800 -850 M T W RMeeting Location: 102 BachelorPrerequisites: basic course in statistics (e.g., STA 671)Instructor: Dr. John Bailere-mail address: [email protected]: http://www.users.muohio.edu/bailerajOffice: 292 Bachelor (529-3538)*369C Upham (529-2648)Office Hours: * 900-1000 Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday (other times by appointment - don't be shy!)Course Topics: Regression analyses, experimental design, sampling & sampling designs, and math modelingTeaching Assistant: TBA Purpose of Course:1. Introduce regression models and accompanying assumptions. (STA 473/573) - through 2/12 (roughly 2/17)2. Introduce experimental designs and their associated analyses. (STA 476/576) - through 3/25 3. Introduce methods of probability sampling.4. Introduce mathematical models Course Objectives:1. Identify and correctly analyze various regression models and experimental designs using SAS.2. Develop a sense for the most appropriate sampling method for addressing a particular problem.3. Develop a sense for what issues are important in the construction and validation of mathematical models.1Texts:(for regression and experimental design)(OL) Ott, R.L. and Longnecker, M. (2001) Statistical Methods and Data Analysis,5th Ed., Pacific Grove, CA, Duxbury. (for sampling)Course notes (draft chapter from Upcoming book)(for math modeling)Course notes - based in part on Giordano, F.R., Weir, M.D. and Fox, W.P. (2003) A First Course in Mathematical Modeling, 3rd Ed., Pacific Grove, CA, Duxbury.Grading: Straight 90-80-70-60 split for A,B,C,D, respect.(for IES 612)Item contribution to gradeHomework 1/3Exam 1 (following reg.) 1/3Exam 2 (following exp. design)1/3(for STA 473/576 or STA 476/576)Item Contribution to gradeHomeworka½Exama,b½aAdditionally, students in STA 573/576 may be required to work additional "grad-only" problems on homework or exams. bExam will be handed out during the last regularly scheduled class period and will be due Monday of the next week.Comments: Exams will be take-home exams. The first exam will focus on regression analysis, and the second exam will focus on experimental design.2Tentative course outlineIES 612 Part I and STA 473/573Week Day Comments Reading Expanded topic list1 1/12 First day of classes -Intro.OL 11.1 Linear regression; model; errorterms 1/13 OL 11.2 Least squares; Residuals, leverage, outliers, estimating 1/141/15 Inference OL 11.31 and 0 inference; General linear test2 1/19 HOLIDAY, no class xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx1/20 Diagnostics Remedial measures; transformations1/21 OL 11.4 Mean response and new response inference1/22 OL 11.7 Correlation and r23 1/26 Multiple Reg. OL 12.1 Intro, Model, interpretation, dummy/indicators1/27 OL 12.2 GLM1/28 OL 12.3,12.4 estimation, inference1/29 Extra SS; collinearity; VIF4 2/2 OL 12.5 Testing subsets2/3 OL 12.6 Forecasting/prediction2/4 OL 12.7OL 16Slopes of several reg. Lines (connection to ANCOVA)2/5 OL 12.8 Logistic reg.5 2/9 Selecting variables OL 13.1 All possible reg.; PRESS; Cp; backward elimination; forward selection; stepwise2/10 Model formulation/ assumptionsOL 13.2, 13.3, 13.4 Linearity; transformation; Plots2/11 TOPICS Nonlinear regression; LogisticRegression2/12End ofREGRESSION3IES 612 Part II and STA 476/5766 2/16 HOLIDAY, no class xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx2/17 Experimental DesignOL 8.1-8.2 One-way AOV vocab, t-test analog, F-test, SS/AOV table2/18 Single factor anova modelsOL 8.3 CRD2/19 OL 8.4 AOV conditions; residual analysis7 2/23 OL 8.5, OL 8.6 Transformation, Kruskal-Wallis2/24 Multiple comparisonsOL 9.1, OL 9.2 Contrasts, SSC2/25 OL 9.3 Error rates - individual, per comparison, Bonferroni2/26 MCA OL 9.4, OL 9.5, OL 9.6Fisher, Tukey, SNK8 3/1 MCC+ OL 9.7, OL 9.83/2 Design concepts OL 14.1-14.3 Intro, study types, vocab3/3 Oneway, factorial, control, experimental unit, replication3/4 OL 14.5-14.6 Randomization, Replication (study size)9 3/8 AOV for standard designsOL 15.1-15.7 Oneway CRD3/9 RCBD, LS?, Factorial treatment in CRD and RCBD3/103/11 Topics OL 17/18 Fixed/random effects, repeatedmeasures10 3/15 SPRING BREAK xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx3/16 SPRING BREAK xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx3/17 SPRING BREAK xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx3/18 SPRING BREAK xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx11 3/223/233/243/25End ofEXPERIMENTAL DESIGN4IES 612 Part III12 3/29 Sampling Course notes SRS3/30 ENAR? Pinch hitter?3/31 ENAR? Pinch hitter?Stratified RS, Cluster Sampling4/113 4/8 Systematic samples4/94/10 Estimating Wildlife Population Size4/1114 4/15 Modeling Course notes Vocabulary; model/variable types4/164/174/1815 4/22 Monte Carlo modelsCourse notes4/234/244/25 Deterministic modelsCourse notes16 4/294/304/315/1 Last Day of Class5Other dates of potential interestJan 12 classes beginJan 16 X Sprint Class- Last day to drop course without a gradeX Sprint Class- Credit/ no credit deadlineJan 26 X Sprint Class- Last day to drop the course with grade of WX Sprint Class - Last day to change course to auditFeb 16 NO CLASSES - President's DayFeb 17 X Sprint Class - Last day of classesMonday/Tuesday Class Exchange (no Tuesday classes, Monday classes meet this day)Feb 18 W,Y Sprint Class- Beginning of classesFeb 23 Y Sprint Class - Last day to drop course without gradeY Sprint Class - Credit/No credit deadlineMar 2 Y Sprint Class- Last day to drop course with Grade of WY Sprint Class - Last day to change course to auditMar 14-20NO CLASSES - Spring BreakMar 26 V & Y Sprint Class- Last day of classesApr 30 Last Day of ClassesMay 3-7 FINAL